Surviving In A De-Carbonizing World

1. Surviving In A De-Carbonizing World Strategies for Success For The Power Sector Jim SimsWestern Business Roundtable

2. Political Waters of Climate

3. Today’s Topics • Climate Forecast • Action Strategies • Consumer Education Practicum

4. Climate Forecast • Long-Term: Deal on carbon • Short-Term: More fog of uncertainty

5. Long-Term Forecast • Carbon Regulation Paths • Grand Compromise • Clean Air Act Amdts. of 1990 • Incremental Policy • Energy bills • No deal on carbon • Renewables / conservation only

6. Long-Term Forecast • Carbon Deal Timeline • 10 years / 5 Congresses (CAAA) • 4-6 years / 2-3 Congresses (energy bill) • 1 Congress (lightning strike) • Never (ESA reform, tort reform, RCRA reform)

7. Long-Term Forecast • The Deal Itself • Cap-and-Trade • Carbon tax • Clean energy purchase requirement + efficiency mandates

8. Predictions

9. Predictions 1. Carbon tax is non-starter 2. Cap-and-trade: possible only if in next 1-2 Congresses • Controversial issues like carbon get stinkier the longer they sit • Organized consumer opposition will only grow

10. Predictions • Enviros will over-reach and a grand compromise will not be unachievable • Carbon “solution” will be a combo of: • Clean energy mandates • Efficiency mandates / incentives • Man-on-the-moon investment effort in generation / distribution technologies

11. Action Strategies • Be seen on the cutting edge of the technology curve both on generation and distribution.

12. Action Strategies • Package generation / distribution needs within a larger “American energy independence” message

13. Action Strategies • Position yourself on the right side of the coming consumer price rebellion

14. Action Strategies • Tell your story before the other side does.

15. 1. We Love Technology • Americans love “we can do it” messaging • Clean energy technologies enjoy stratospheric support • 87 – 10 back more gov’t support for wind and solar power.

16. 1. We Love Technology • Will accept higher costs for renewables if wrapped within high tech / clean energy message. • Will accept “we need clean coal” message if wrapped within high tech message. • Will accept conservation mandates if wrapped within high tech message

17. 1. We Love Technology • Politicians will go where “new technology” leads them. • Technology focus helps drive advocacy for man-on-the-moon level of funding from feds

18. 2. We Love American Energy • Enjoys stratospheric levels of public support • Energy security - national security tie will only strengthen • Current focus on OCS can be translated to other resources

19. 2. We Love American Energy Quinnipiac Survey • 62 – 32 percent in favor of offshore drilling; • 56 – 35 percent in favor of building new nuclear plants; • 51 – 42 percent back drilling in the Alaskan National Wildlife Refuge;

20. 2. We Love American Energy

21. 2. We Love American Energy • American Energy Initiative • Joint effort by American Energy Independence Council / Southern States Energy Board / NextGen Energy Council • Synthesis of high tech + American energy messaging • Studies on electricity, CO2, transportation and resources modules • Policy / funding recommendations • State Capital Briefings on next generation power technologies

23. 3. Consumer Rebellion

24. 3. Consumer Rebellion • Congress of Racial Equality • Consumers for Affordable Energy • Veterans for Energy Security • Seniors Energy Network • Education Funding Alliance • Latinos for Affordable Energy

27. Do Not Fear This Growing Movement.Harness It.

28. 4. Tell Our Story Better Unless we educate consumers properly, anti-industry groups will.

29. 4. Tell Our Story Better And these groups HATE virtually everything that industry stands for.

30. 4. Tell Our Story Better Consumers arebeing told theycan have it alland it won’tcost them anymore

31. 4. Tell Our Story Better Consumers are unreasonable • Endless and secure energy supplies • Low prices • No pollution • Less global warming • No new power plants • No new oil and gas drilling near people or pristine places

32. 4. Tell Our Story Better • We need more of everything -- renewables / efficiency can’t do it all • We face near-term threats to system reliability • Greater American energy independence means more drilling, mining, power plants, pipelines and power lines • Climate “solutions” will be very costly • Government regs cannot be allowed to outpace technological capabilities

33. Education Practicum If you could construct the U.S. energy system, what choices would you make?

34. Realities To Deal With

35. Realities To Deal With

36. A Case Study: Colorado • Colorado’s need for electricity will increase significantly by 2025 – by4,900 MW

37. Building Your Own SCENARIO 1 4,900 megawatts total need 980 MW (20% efficiency) 980 MW (20% rps) - 637 MW (35% capacity factor) 1,323 MW REMAINDER: 3,577 MW of need beyond efficiency gains / renewables

38. Building Your Own SCENARIO 2 4,900 megawatts total need 1,255 MW (25% efficiency) 1,470 MW (30% rps) - 956 MW (35% capacity factor) 1,769 MW REMAINDER: 3,131 MW of need beyond efficiency gains / renewables

39. Building Your Own SCENARIO 3 4,900 megawatts total need 1,470 MW (30% efficiency) 2,450 MW (50% rps) - 1470 MW (40% capacity factor) 2,450 MW REMAINDER: 2,450 MW needed beyond efficiency gains / renewables

40. Lesson #1 Renewables can’t meet all our needs because most are not baseload resources.

41. Lesson #2 Intermittent renewables need fossil resources likeNatural Gas • Natural gas-fired plants are used to offset the variability of wind. • Some n-gas plants cycle several hundred times a month to offset a nearby wind farm. • Cancelled coal plant in KS killed wind farm

42. Lesson #3 Options Are Limited For New Baseload Generation • Coal • Natural Gas • Nuclear • Hydropower • Imports • Demand Destruction

43. Option 1: Coal

44. BTU Conversion

47. Option 2: Natural Gas If we want to continue to benefit from natural gas for electricity generation and other uses, we need to continue to drill and produce natural gas.