Defining the Future of Scientific and Technological Direction for IFPS and NDFD

1. S & T Committee Digital Forecast Era Challenges March, 2003

2. Purpose • Invite S&T Committee participation and leadership in defining the future (post-IOC) scientific and technological direction of IFPS and NDFD.

3. Desired Outcomes • Agreement on Scope and Content of technical issues to be addressed • Seminal Science Issues • Technology Issues • Formation of an IFP Science Steering Team • To guide scientific inquiry • Recommend solutions • Work with External Science Review Group • Formation of a Technology Steering Team

4. Some Science Issues • NDFD does not currently support probabilistic forecasts • Numerical guidance to forecasters needs to be improved • Geophysically consistent grid modification of NDFD elements needs to be ensured • Accuracy and skill of gridded forecasts not being adequately assessed • NDFD does not contain a vertical coordinate • Can forecasters add value to model output at meso- and finer scales?

5. Some Technology Issues • Provide Strategic direction (~5 years) to future technology • How to integrate other information (radar, satellite, etc) into the IFP process for short range forecasting • How to best access information in the full resolution model suite • How to make sure solutions are scalable and extensible considering current and future IT architecture What are the Strategic Alternatives we need to address?

6. Are these the issues to be addressed?

7. Now What Do We Do? • Develop technological and scientific roadmap for IFPS • Establish prioritized objectives • Establish structure for leading resolution of scientific and technological issues • Science Steering team • Technology Steering Team • Integrate into top level IFPS Program Plan

8. Program ManagementConcept Corporate Board AA External Science Review Group (ESRG) S&T Committee OST – Program Mgmt Science Steering Team (SST) Technology Steering Team (TST) PPD SEC MDL

9. Science Steering TeamProposed Charter • Vision • To define and refine the science issues that are raisedby IFP operations and to propose solutions. • Structure • A team that reports to the S&T committee • Science oriented, with direct knowledge of IFPimpacts to operations and services • Membership • 1-2 people from each Region, NCEP • 1 representative from each development lab • Representative from NWSHQ

10. Science Steering Team Proposed Charter • Roles and responsibilities • Take ownership of science issues • Define/Refine issues addressed • Explore alternatives to solving • Recommend solutions • Identify technical/operational limitations • Produce IFPS “next steps” white paper • Reporting • Monthly status reports to the S&T committee • Outcomes • Solutions get integrated into STIP • Solutions get integrated into NOAA Weather and Water PPBS Plan

11. Technology Steering TeamProposed Charter • Vision • To define and refine the technological issues that are raised and to propose solutions. • Structure • A team that reports to the S&T committee • Technology oriented, with direct knowledge of impacts to operations and services • Membership • 1-2 people from each Region and NCEP • 1 representative from each development lab • Representatives from NWSHQ

12. Technology Steering TeamProposed Charter • Roles and responsibilities • Take ownership of technological issues • Define/Refine issues addressed • Explore alternatives to solving • Recommend solutions • Identify technical/operational limitations • Reporting • Monthly status reports to the S&T committee

13. Formation of IFPS External Science Review Group • Structure • Non-NOAA group that reviews IFPS plans and advises S&T committee • Membership • 3-5 nationally known science leaders • Academic and research backgrounds • Roles and responsibilities • Review SST recommendations • Provide input on possible alternative solutions • Reporting • Quarterly review of IFPS program plans • Question – DOC rules for setting up such a group? • Should it be formal or informal

14. Backups

15. Science Issues NDFD does not currently support probabilistic forecasts • The best ways to portray forecast information to day 7 • Discussion points • MOS • Ensembles • Communicating uncertainty

16. Science Issues Numerical guidance to forecasters needs to be improved • Bias correction of NWP • Interpolation of coarse resolution guidance grids to higher resolution IFPS/NDFD grids

17. Science IssuesGeophysically consistent grid modification of NDFD elements needs to be ensured • Do we have tools to ensure consistent surface elements? • Can forecasters consistently add value at meso- and finer scales?

18. Science Issues Accuracy and skill of gridded forecasts not being adequately assessed • Forecasters cannot assess their skill on daily basis • Organizationally we cannot track our skill

19. Science Issues NDFD does not contain a vertical coordinate • Required for Aviation Services • Preliminary attempts made • None successful

20. Technology IssuesHow to integrate other information (radar, satellite, etc) into the IFP process for short range forecasting • Lack of tools for nowcasting and short term forecasting • Lack of data needed for nowcasting and short term forecasting • Radar • Satellite • Surface observations • How will AWIPS evolve to meet these needs?

21. Technology Issues How to best access information in the full resolution model suite • Lack of bandwidth to send full resolution NWP output to WFOs • Lack of computer resources to handle larger volume of data at WFOs • Are bandwidth and CPU resources the best solution to expanding information at WFOs

22. Technology Issues • Bigger than IFPS • How do we move forward with technology in the digital forecast era?