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Climate Change Vulnerability in ecosystems and Landscapes March 14, 2011 George Wright Society – Rethinking protected PowerPoint Presentation
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Climate Change Vulnerability in ecosystems and Landscapes March 14, 2011 George Wright Society – Rethinking protected Areas in a Changing World. Patrick Comer Chief Ecologist NatureServe Healy Hamilton Climate Effects Modeler CA Academy of Sciences Bob Unnasch Fire Ecologist

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Climate Change Vulnerability in ecosystems and LandscapesMarch 14, 2011 George Wright Society – Rethinking protected Areas in a Changing World

Patrick Comer

Chief Ecologist

NatureServe

Healy Hamilton

Climate Effects ModelerCA Academy of Sciences

Bob Unnasch

Fire Ecologist

Sound Science Inc.

slide2

Climate Change Response Over Time

Future Knowledge: research, monitoring, adaptive management

Time

Current Knowledge

Current Stressors

2100?

Novel Stressors

Novel Ecosystems

Plan 2065-2080

Plan 2025-2040

Plan 2040-2065

Plan 2010-2025

Manage for Ecological Resiliency

blm rapid ecoregional assessment
BLM Rapid Ecoregional Assessment

Partners: BLM, states, NatureServe and subcontractor team (Sound Science, CA Academy)

Objectives: ‘wall-to-all’ assessment of key resources and change agents – including climate change - in preparation for resource management planning (under NEPA)

Major Deliverables:Analysis of landscape scenarios for 2011, 2030, and 2060 time frames.

Project Timeframe: 18 months (each)

rapid assessment basics
Rapid Assessment Basics
  • Management Questions drive the analysis
  • Key resources
    • Representative ecological systems
    • Vulnerable species assemblages
    • Vulnerable landscape species habitats
  • Change agents
    • Wildland fire effects
    • Development effects
    • Invasive species effects
    • Climate change effects
  • Landscape scenarios
    • Assess current ecological integrity
    • Change effects at 2030
    • Climate change effects at 2060
great basin pinyon juniper woodland
Great Basin Pinyon-Juniper Woodland

© Southwest ReGAP

13.8% of ecoregion extent

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Management Question:

What is the level of Ecological Integrity for the Key Resources?

Great Basin Pinyon-Juniper Woodland

Ecological Integrity Scorecard

slide8

Great Basin Pinyon-Juniper Woodland

Model for ‘natural’ conditions

Class A

Early

All structures: herb/shrub/tree

Class C

Mid2

Open woodland

Class D

Late

Open woodland

Class B

Mid1

Open woodland

Probabilistic transitions:

Drought

Replacement fire

Surface fire

  • Deterministic transitions:
    • Succession
slide9

Landscape Dynamics

Pinyon-Juniper

Woodland

Big sagebrush shrubland

Estimated proportional extent by watershed

management questions climate change effects
Management Questions: Climate Change Effects

Where will changes in climate be greatest relative to normal climate variability?

Where will key resources experience climate outside their current climate envelope?

Where will current locations of key resources experience significant and abrupt deviations from normal climate variation?

What is the spatial distribution of projected range shifts for key resources?

slide12

Bioclimate Envelope (averages of ~36 variables)

Historical 1900-1980

CC onset 1980-1995

Current 1995-2010

Forecast 2020-2040

Forecast 2050-2070

slide14

Landscape Dynamics

Pinyon-Juniper

Woodland

Big sagebrush shrubland

slide15

Magnitude and Directionality of

Range Shift for Component Species

A2 Scenario - 2010

A2 Scenario – 2040s

A2 Scenario – 2060s

climate change vulnerability
Climate Change Vulnerability
  • Magnitude of change in key climate variables by time period.
  • Forecasted invasives abundance and effects on fire probabilities for fire regime departure scoring.
  • Magnitude and directionality of predicted range shift for component species.
challenges
Challenges
  • Linking trends in climate variables to fire probabilities (e.g.,biennial patterns of moisture and drought)
  • Coping with variation across the ecoregion – how many distinct models are practical for a rapid, regional assessment?
  • Reporting Units for Landscape Vulnerability circa 2060; by 5th level watershed?