Sources of Errors in Decision Making • Representativeness – when there is not sufficient data before generalizing • Availability – when you seize the obvious • Anchoring – when you do not push beyond initial thoughts and alternatives
Improved decision making requires: • Reflection • Use of a system
Biggest mistakes in decision making are… • “Either / Or” thinking • The notion of clear and simple goals for an organization is ….. a gross oversimplification. • Seeking satisfactory rather than maximum capacity. • Maximizing > attend all classes & be on time • Satisfying > some absences with valid reasons
Some Decision Making Models • Rush to judgment • Quick fix • Muddling and Scanning • Fire, ready, aim – back to the drawing board • Political • Self-interest • All about power • Strategic decision making • Reference Hoy and Tarter 2004
Hanson’s Case Analysis Framework • Step 1 – Summarize the case • Step 2 – State the Problem • Step 3 – List people, place, program • Step 4 – Review, prioritize, locate significant data • Step 5 – Refer to the Data in Solving the Problem
THINKING HATS • Blue hat – the organizing one / organize the thinking process / cool and clear / organizes the other hats • White hat – neutral and objective / concerned with facts and figures • Red hat – emotional / processes feelings and intuitions / usually what makes us angry
THINKING HATS… • Black hat – caution / careful / survival • Yellow hat – sunny and positive / optimistic with hope and positive thinking • Green hat – abundant and fertile growth of ideas / creativity and new ideas • Always refer to the hat color, not the function • Hat Pairs: • Red and White • Black and Yellow • Green and Blue
Guidelines for Thinking Hats… • Six volunteers • Each person wears a different hat in order to process the “problem.” • Blue hat thinking is primarily the facilitator, helping others to stay “in hat.” • Other five hats must present only the perspective represented by that hat.