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“David’s Story” “Born to fail-the perfect storm”. John Carnochan QPM Detective Chief Superintendent Violence Reduction Unit. “Truth springs from argument amongst friends” David Hume 1711-1776. Improving Scottish Education HMIE 2006.

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“David’s Story”

“Born to fail-the perfect storm”

John Carnochan QPM

Detective Chief Superintendent

Violence Reduction Unit

improving scottish education hmie 2006
Improving Scottish EducationHMIE 2006

“However, we must also recognise that many of the factors associated with poor performance lie outside the centre, school or college attended. The need for establishments and teachers to work effectively with parents and carers and with all those services which support young people and their families remains vital. Traditions, structures and even values present real challenges to joint working…..”


The “How”

Identify risk / protectivefactors

Research why it occurs


Systematic data collection

Develop and evaluate interventions

Find out what works.


Scale up and evaluate effective programmes

understand causes of violence
Understand Causes of Violence

Two components to Violence:

  • The propensity to be violent - personal factors
  • The triggers of violence - social factors The Wave Report 2005 “Violence and what to do about it”
what do employers want
What do Employers Want?

Percentage of Employers reporting an employee skill gap.

Future Skills Bar Chart. See Future Skills Scotland Website, Employer Survey 2004, p27, fig 15.


Rates of Return to Human Capital

Rates of Return to Human Capital

Higher Education






“A major determinant of successful schools is successful families. Schools work with what parents bring them. They operate more effectively if parents reinforce them by encouraging and motivating children”

Professor James Heckman

Chicago University

public health model
Public Health Model





  • Lack of communication skills
  • Poor behavioural control
  • Impulsiveness
  • Aggressive behaviour
  • Lack of skills to deal with conflict
  • Lack of “life” skills
  • Exclusion from Services/Schools
  • Nutrition Diet Health
  • Alcohol
  • Lack of employment opportunities
  • Parenting
  • Lack of knowledge
  • Friends that engage in violence
  • Prevalence of gang culture
  • Violent families – siblings/parents
  • Lack of significant adults/positive role model
  • Lack of punishment for pre cursor offences – knife carrying
  • Lack of visible swift justice
  • Links to deprivation
  • Scottishness
  • Cultural norms
  • Legitimisation of violence
  • Access to and use of alcohol
  • Lack of aspiration
  • Dependancy

Glasgow East

  • Population 60,000+
      • 27% residents are under the age of 20
  • Education
      • 49% above the national average for adults without qualifications
      • 14% below the Nat Ave for 5+ GCSE equivalents (s4)

Glasgow East

  • Employment
      • Workless households 122% above Nat Ave
      • Number of income deprived people 114% above Nat Ave
  • Child and Mental Health
      • Low birth weight babies 62% above the Nat Ave
      • Teenage pregnancy (under 18) 42% above the Nat Ave

Glasgow East

  • Life Expectancy
      • Males 68.1, females 76
      • Males life expectancy drops as low as 61.9

Glasgow East

  • Crime
      • Serious Violent Crime 170% above Nat Ave
      • Domestic Abuse 54% above the Nat Ave
      • Vandalism 22% above Nat Ave
      • Drug Offenders 39% above Nat Ave

Glasgow East

  • Gangs
      • 55 known gangs
      • Approx 630 known gang members aged between 9 - early 20s
      • White young men aged between 9-20s (peak membership 14-18)
      • Highly Territorialised – obsessed with respect
      • Resistant to change

It has to be about:

  • WHAT is right not WHO is right
  • WHAT is important not WHO is important