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Scenarios of Land Use Change in the Mediterranean: Stakeholder Workshops and Future Trends

This article discusses the development of qualitative scenarios for land use change in the Mediterranean region through stakeholder workshops. It explores various factors and trends that could shape the future of the region, including environmental degradation, water availability, employment, and migration. The workshops aim to generate insights and actions for sustainable land use practices.

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Scenarios of Land Use Change in the Mediterranean: Stakeholder Workshops and Future Trends

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  1. MedAction Module 1 Land use change scenarios at various scales Kasper Kok, Mita Patel, Dale Rothman Alexandria, 20 March 2004

  2. Stake- holders Main products of MedAction Scenarios 2000-2030 Decision Support Systems Policy Support Framework

  3. What kind of scenarios? The goal is to develop qualitative scenarios, or narrative storylines. Thus, we expand our mental model beyond conventional thinking and trend extrapolation, and include more surprising developments. The relevant question that scenarios can answer is not whether an event could happen, but what we could do if it did happen.

  4. 3 Mediterranean Scenarios Workshops with Local actors Target Area Scenarios Multi-scale scenario development 3 European Scenarios (from VISIONS)

  5. European Scenarios Factor-Actor-Sector Framework VISIONS MedAction FactorsEquityWater Availability EmploymentMigration Consumption behaviourLand Degradation Environmental degradationEconomic Stability ActorsNGOs NGOs Scientists Scientists Businesses Businesses Governmental bodies Governmental bodies Sectors EnergyAgriculture WaterTourism TransportForestry InfrastructureCivic

  6. Knowledge is King Merger Mania Convulsive Change Flooding + + Information Technology dominates Inventions Drought Desert formation Big is Beautiful Three European scenarios

  7. Sun-Belt and Snow-birds Life extension drug Information Technology dominates Transport faster and cheaper Inventions Desalination of sea water Tourist numbers increase Translation to Mediterranean region: Knowledge is King

  8. Target Area scenario development The ideal situation is to have three workshops in all Target Areas: 1. Preparatory workshops Introduction 2. First series of workshops Development narrative storylines 2030 3. Second series of workshops Backcasting exercise and short term action

  9. Schedule of stakeholder workshops Target Area Preparatory First Second workshop workshop workshop Guadalentín21-06-’02 08-11-’02 25-06-‘03 Agri Valley17-06-’02 21-10-’02 26-07-‘03 Lesvos 11-05-’02 XX XX AlentejoXX 08-14-’02 XX

  10. First stakeholder workshops Maratea, Italy – October 21, 2002 (24)Murcia, Spain – November 8, 2002 (20)Mértola, Portugal – November 11, 2002 (16)

  11. What are the most important factors in your region? The Story of the Present How might your region look in 2030 under different European and world developments? The Story of the Future Main questions 1st workshop

  12. The story of the present

  13. Writing post-its

  14. Discussing relationships between factors

  15. Environmental education Agrarian Policies Climate Water Regional Policies Land use change Population, Migration Desertification Final product

  16. The story of the future

  17. Creating the scenarios

  18. The collages

  19. Presenting the scenarios

  20. Conclusions of evaluation • Story of the present: • No new factors of major importance • Locally very different factors (oil in Italy!) and different emphasis • PERCEPTION IS DIFFERENT  Desertification is human desertification • Story of the future: • Too general • Too much following Mediterranean scenarios

  21. Second stakeholder workshops Totana, Spain – June 25, 2003 (20) Missanello, Italy – July 26, 2003 (24)

  22. Main questions 2nd workshop What will be the main short-term trends in your region starting from the current situation? Extension of the Present How do the present and future connect? Backcasting exercise

  23. Extension of the present

  24. Trends in next 5 years Sectors: Agriculture  smallholders disappear Tourism  increasingly important Factors: Water  less availability Environmental resources  more degradation Population and migration  rural outmigration

  25. Backcasting exercise

  26. Backcasting exercise • Pick one factor from “your” scenario • Decide whether you want to discuss • This factor (future of the scenario) • The opposite of this factor (desirable future) • Develop a series of events and actions at short and medium term that should necessary happen in order to realise the (desired) situation of this factor in 2030

  27. Medium term Short term Long term Extension of the present Present EU? ?? New subsidies New canals ?? ?? ?? NO Golf courses Continuation of intensive agriculture “Agriculture before anything” ?? Sufficient water ?? What? When? Who? How? Lower prices Stop rural outmigrtion ??

  28. Multifunctional sustainable agriculture (BiB) Sector Short term Medium term Long term • Research in local knowledge • Adult training processes • Innovative didactics • Active participation Increase the awareness on the topic of rurality HUMAN CAPITAL • Increase farm profits • Multifunctional agriculture • Incentives rural tourism • Increase life quality inner zones Stimulate young people to invest in agriculture DEMOGRAPHY • New subsidies • Low impact techniques • Awareness campaigns • Promotion local products Increase quality of local, biological products AGRICULTURE Multifunctional sustainable agriculture managed by the local farmer • Capillary street system • Construct airport in area • Improve water system Increase quality and quantity of local infrastructure INFRASTRUCTURE • Marketing local products • Marketing image of the Agri • Collective quality marks • Quality brand Val d’Agri Strengthening of market power of the local farmer MARKETING • Improve local awareness • Spread positive experiences • Information campaigns Resolving institutional problems with establishment and management VAL D’AGRI NATIONAL PARK

  29. Summary Present Short Medium Long term 2003 2008 2008-2030 2030 When? 1st 2nd 2nd 1st How? All Groups Groups Groups Post-its Discussion Backcasting Collage Results Main factors Major trends Desirable futures ‘Real’ futures

  30. Conclusions • Process • Vivid discussions and active participation • Enthusiasm and interest • Increased communication • Start of a long-term interaction and participation? • Results • Perception of local stakeholders on: • Present situation • Current trends and short-term fears • Long-term hopes and desires • Long-term reactions to European changes

  31. Conclusions • Link to policies to combat desertification: • Local stakeholders perceive desertification as human desertification and causes as socioeconmic • Their interest is notthe land but the “territory” • More integrated policies are needed • Future changes need to be considered (tourism!)

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