Climate Change & International Treaties

1. Climate Change & International Treaties East Asia Department Asian Development Bank 29th October 2009

2. Contents • Climate Change: Science and Politics • the UNFCCC • the Kyoto Protocol

3. Irreversibility Indifference Uncertainty The tragedy of the commons Immaturity of alternative technology No sovereign government Climate Change: Characteristics

4. Scientific Background of Climate Change • Tyndale: a slight change in the composition of the atmosphere can cause a big climate change(1861) • Arrhenius: verified the greenhouse effect(1896) • Callendar: discovered fossil fuel consumption could increase the mean surface temperature through the increase in atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide(1938)

5. CO2 concentration • Pre-industrial revolution: 280ppm • Present:380ppm+ • The end of 21st century: 490-1,260ppm • Mean surface temperature 1.4~5.8℃increase • Sea-level rise9~88cm

6. CO2 N2O HFCs/ PFCs/ SF6 Greenhouse Gases Gases causing greenhouse effect in the earth atmosphere. Six GHGs are controlled by the Kyoto Protocol. • Accounts for 80% of GHGs • Caused by the burning of fossil fuel • livestock enteric fermentation, mining, and manual management • Decomposition of organic wastes CH4 • Coal mining and burning fuels in high temperature • Production and consumption of fertilizers • Man-made, chemical elements • Small amount, but big effect on Green House Effect • Caused by Refrigeration system, fire suppression system

7. GWP (Global Warming Potential)

8. Trend on Climate change A task force in World Economic Forum issued initial policy suggestions to G8 leaders about long term policy aiming to cut global emissions of greenhouse gases by 50% by 2050. (June 2008) Summit such as G8 or APEC also discussed as a main issue. U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki-moon put the issue of climate change the high priority task since his inauguration. Over 70% of Fortune 500 companies are regarding the climate change as a risk factor.

9. Reports on the Effects of Climate change Global Reports on the adverse effects and the cost of climate change attract the public attention. IPCC 4th Report (Feb. 2007) It predicts the average rise of 5.8°c in temperature, and 88cm rise in the sea level by 2100 without any additional efforts. Melting glaciers would increase flooding and rockslide risks, while millions are exposed to flood risks. Stern Review (Dec. 2006) The costs of action to reduce GHG emissions to avoid the worst impacts can be limited to around 1% of global GDP each year. However, if the efforts are delayed, the estimates of damage could rise to 5~20% of GDP or more.

10. GHG Emission Reduction Goals of Selected Countries Source: Ministry of Environment, Republic of Korea 50~85%reduction by 2050 compared with 2000 level 80%reduction by 2050 compared with 1990 level England UNFCCC IPCC 60~80%reduction by 2050 compared with 1990 level 60%reduction by 2050 compared with 2000 level EU Australia 60~70%reduction by 2050 compared with 2006 level “60~80% below the present level by 2050” (’08.6.9 prime minister Fukuda) Canada Japan 17%reduction by 2020, 80%reduction by 2050 compared with 2005 level a voluntary target be declared in 2009 USA (’08.7.9 president Lee Myung Bak) Republic of Korea (’09.5 W-M Act)

11. USA E U Japan Developing Countries Issues on Developing Countries’ participation • Negotiation Point Developed Countries : demand for participation in GHG emissions reduction of developing countries such as China, India, South Korea, and Mexico Developing Countries: suggested more aggressive ER target, and enhance technological and financial support for developing countries • Proposals Divide developing countries into “capable and responsible developing countries” and “other developing countries” Among non-Annex I parties, OECD members and OECD candidates need to set targets for emission reduction Include OECD members in Annex I and establish Annex C for fragmenting developing countries China : minimize amending the Kyoto Protocol and emphasize technology transfer to developing countries India: need a new system to promote technology transfer and financial support

12. UN General Assembly UNEP WMO IPCC UNFCCC The Climate Change Convention: History • The first World Climate Conference (WCC) in 1979 • Triggered international response to climate change issue • Explored how climate change might affect human activities • Issued a declaration calling on the world’s governments "to foresee and prevent potential man-made changes in climate that might be adverse to the well-being of humanity". • Endorsed plans to establish a World Climate Program (WCP) under the joint responsibility of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP), and the International Council of Scientific Unions (ICSU). < International Organization on the Climate Change Convention >

13. Villach Conference and Toronto Conference • The Villach Conference, Austria • Held by the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) in October, 1985 • The first assessment of the role of carbon dioxide in climatic variability and its associated impacts • Predicted that a temperature would rise about 5oC in the next 50 years if the current CO2 emission level maintains and adopted a statement calling for international cooperation for measures to prevent global warming • The Toronto Conference, Canada • Held in 1998, in which climate change experts, government officials, and business men over 40 countries participated. • Adopted a statement calling for a specific reduction target of CO2: 20% below 1988 levels by 2005.

14. IPCC: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change • Established by the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP) and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) • Provide the world with a clear scientific view on the current state of climate change and its potential environmental and socio-economic consequences • As a scientific body, the IPCC reviews and assesses the most recent scientific, technological and socio-economic information produced worldwide relevant to the understanding of climate change • IPCC’s results are considered the most prestigious study on climate change and had a significant impact on discussions at the Climate Change Conventions Establishment of IPCC

15. Sructure of IPCC • 3 Working Groups (WG) • ．WGⅠ: The Physical Science Basis • ．WGⅡ: Impact, Adaptation, and Vulnerability • ．WGⅢ: Mitigation • Task force on National Greenhouse Gas Inventories • < IPCCStructure >

16. The Second World Climate Conference • Sponsored by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the United Nations Environment Program (UNEP), and other international organizations, the conference was held in Geneva from 29 October to 7 November 1990. • Negotiation was conducted among 137 states and European Community • Committed to adopting a global framework convention on climate change to cope with global warming (Based on the 1st IPCC report) • Recognize a number of principles that had emerged in international climate discussions such as: • Common but differentiated responsibilities • Recognize that the emissions from developing countries must still grow to accommodate their development needs • Urge developed states, which are responsible for 75% of the world’s emissions of greenhouse gases, to "establish targets and/or feasible national programs or strategies which will have a significant effect on limiting emissions of greenhouse gases ..."; • Precautionary principle • Response measures must be adopted without delay, despite remaining scientific uncertainties

17. Intergovernmental Negotiating Committee • for a Framework Convention on Climate Change (INC/FCCC) • 1990. 12: agreed on establishing INC/FCCC respond to the statement of the UN General Assembly’s resolution • 1991.2 ~ 1992.5: drafted the Climate Change Convention • 1992. 5: INC 5th meeting (New York) - The FCCC was opened for signature after the INC produced the text of the Framework Convention • 1992.6 UNCED: 154 Governments at the Rio "Earth Summit" signed a major environmental treaty, the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. • 1995. 2: dissolved after the 11th meeting - Conference of the Parties became the "supreme body" of the Convention and the highest decision-making authority to review all the process of Convention

18. Climate Change Convention • As the significance of climate change was widely acknowledged, the Convention easily entered into force effective since the “Convention” is not mandatory • Conventions on environmental issues • Geneva Convention, Vienna Convention, Climate Change Convention • Geneva Convention(1979) • Convention on trans-boundary air pollution in Europe • Based on the hypothesis that air pollutants could travel several thousands of kilometers before deposition and damage occurred. • Also implied that cooperation at the international level was necessary to solve problems such as acidification • First international legally binding instrument to deal with problems of air pollution on a broad regional basis • Vienna Convention (1985) • The convention on stratospheric ozone layer depletion • Montreal Protocol (1987) International treaty designed to protect the ozone layer by phasing out the production and consumption of a number of substances believed to be responsible for ozone layer depletion

19. The Climate Change Convention • Goal of achieving “Stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system” • Parties - Annex I parties and non-Annex I parties take different responsibilities • Commitment - Annex I: reduce GHG emissions below their 1990 levels by 2000 - Annex II: provide financial resources to enable developing countries to undertake appropriate policies and measures - All Parties: develop national inventories, prepare policies and acts on emission reductions, promote and cooperate technological / socio-economic researches, call for public attention, submit national communications

20. Annex I parties • Under obligatory compliance: 37 Industrialized countries + EC • Australia, Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Canada, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Monaco, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Russian Federation, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Ukraine, United Kingdom, United States of America + European Community • Without obligatory compliance: 2 countries ( Turkey, Belarus) • Belarus and Turkey are listed in Annex I but don’t have the obligatory target because of their national situations. Their emission reduction targets are held back temporarily.

21. COP Conference of the Parties IPCC Secretariat SBI Subsidiary Body for Implementation SBSTA Subsidiary Body on Technical Advice IPCC UNFCCC • UNFCCC: Structure

22. Party vs. Non-party • Party – country that has ratified the UNFCCC. • Annex I Parties : all the countries in the OECD in 1990, plus countries with ‘economies in transition(EIT)’ • Annex II Parties • all countries in the OECD in 1990 except EIT countries • expected to promote the transfer of environmentally sound technologies to developing countries and EIT countries • are obligated to provide financial resources to assist developing countries comply with their obligations • Non-AnnexⅠParties: Countries which were not included in Annex I • Non-party: country that has not ratified the UNFCCC. Non-parties may attend talks as observers

23. Conference of the Parties, COP • The "supreme body" of the Convention • - the highest decision-making authority • The COP is responsible for: • Reviewing the implementation of the Convention and examining the commitments of Parties in light of the Convention’s objective, new scientific findings and experience gained in implementing climate change policies; • Keeping international efforts to address climate change on track; • Reviewing the national communications and emission inventories submitted by Parties; and • Assessing the effects of the measures taken by Parties and the progress made in achieving the ultimate objective of the Convention.

24. Secretariat and Subsidiary body • The main functions of the secretariat • make practical arrangements for sessions of the Convention • monitor implementation of the commitments under the Convention • assist Parties in implementing their commitments and support negotiations, including through the provision of substantive analysis • coordinate with the secretariats of other relevant international bodies, notably the GEF and its the IPCC and other relevant conventions

25. Subsidiary Body • two permanent subsidiary bodies • Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological Advice (SBSTA) - to provide the COP with advice on scientific, technological and methodological matters - link between the scientific information provided by expert sources and the policy-oriented needs of the COP • Subsidiary Body for Implementation (SBI) - to give advice to the COP on all matters concerning the implementation of the Convention - to examine the information in the national communications and emission inventories submitted by Parties in order to assess the Convention’s overall effectiveness. • Temporary subsidiary bodies

26. Principles • The Parties should protect the climate system with common but differentiated responsibilities, precautionary principle and sustainable development right • the developed country Parties should take the lead in combating climate change and the adverse effects thereof (Article 3.1) • The specific needs and special circumstances of developing country Parties should be given full consideration. (Article 3.2) • The Parties should take precautionary measures to anticipate, prevent or minimize the causes of climate change and mitigate its adverse effects (Article 3.3) • The Parties have a right to, and should, promote sustainable development. (Article 3.4) • The Parties should cooperate to promote a supportive and open international economic system (Article 3.5)

27. Commitments • Differentiated Responsibilities • Commitment of all parties (Article 4.1) • Develop national inventories of anthropogenic emissions • Formulate, implement, publish and regularly update programs containing measures to mitigate climate change • Promote technologies, practices and processes that control and reduce GHGs • Commitment of Annex I parties (Article 4.2) - Achieving their committed emission reduction targets to 1990 level by 2000. • Commitment of Annex II parties (Article 4.3, 4.5) - Provide new and additional financial resources, and the transfer of, or access to, environmentally sound technologies and know-how to other Parties(developing countries)

28. National Communication • All Parties should report on the steps they are taking to implement the Convention • submit a report of GHG inventories and sinks which followed COP’s • guideline and methodology • Deliver research, polices and acts on GHGs or climate change • Since 1996, Annex I Parties are requested to submit national communications and GHG inventories to the secretariat by April 15 in each year • Each non-Annex I Party shall submit its initial national communication within three years of the entry into force of the Convention for that Party, or of the availability of financial resources. (** submitting initial report is a precondition for the participation in the Kyoto mechanism) • Annex I parties: details on the policies or acts, effectiveness analysis. Submit initial report within 6 month of the entry into force of the Convention • IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories methodologies for estimating anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals by sinks of greenhouse gases in calculation of legally-binding targets during the first commitment period.

29. UNFCCC Negotiation Process • Conference of the parties (COP) • The highest decision-making authority • has an annual meeting among parties; • review implementation of the Convention • mainly a political process • assisted by SBSTA, SBI in decision-making • Main issues • Annex I parties’ emission reduction target, timing of developing countries’ emissions reduction, technology transfer, adaptation of flexible mechanism, etc.

30. Main Issues of Conference of Parties (COP) • 1995 - COP 1, The Berlin Mandate • Established a 2-year Analytical and Assessment Phase (AAP), to negotiate a "comprehensive menu of actions" for countries to pick from and choose future options to address climate change which for them, individually, made the best economic and environmental sense. • 1996 - COP 2, Geneva, Switzerland • Accepted the scientific findings on climate change offered by the IPCC in its second assessment (1995); • Called for "legally binding mid-term targets." • 1997 - COP 3, Kyoto, Japan • Adopted the Kyoto Protocol (CDM, ET,JI) • 1998 - COP 4, Buenos Aires • Adopted a 2-year "Plan of Action" to advance efforts and to devise mechanisms for implementing the Kyoto Protocol, to be completed by 2000. • 1999 - COP 5, Bonn, Germany • Discussed the emission target of Developing countries • 2000 - COP 6, The Hague, Netherlands • The discussions evolved rapidly into a high-level negotiation over the major political issues • Unable to reach agreement on some of the key outstanding issues because of different viewpoint among U.S, Japan, Australia and EU • Planned adopting a comprehensive and balanced package of decisions on Kyoto Protocol

31. 2001 - COP 6 part 2, Bonn, Germany • Agreed on all the operational details of the Kyoto Protocol w/o U.S. • 2001 - COP 7, Marrakech, Morocco • Decided operational rules for international emissions trading among parties to the Kyoto Protocol and for the CDM and joint implementation • 2002 - COP 8, New Delhi, India • Emphasized the continued smooth operation of the Climate Convention, settled statistics and discussed Post Kyoto Protocol • 2003 - COP 9, Milan, Italy • Decided on definitions and modalities for including afforestation and reforestation activities under the CDM; the Special Climate Change Fund (SCCF); and the Least Developed Countries (LDC) Fund. • 2004 - COP 10, Buenos Aires, Argentina • Unofficial discussion on Emission Reduction Target

32. 2005 - COP 11/MOP 1, Montréal, Canada • Agreement on text for future action under the Kyoto Protocol Article 3.9 • setting out a process under the UNFCCC on a dialogue for enhancing implementation of the Convention. • 2006 - COP 12/MOP 2, Nairobi, Kenya • Negotiating commitments beyond 2012 for countries under the Kyoto Protocol and Stern report on the result of the extensive review of the economics of climate change • 2007 - COP 13/MOP 3, Bali, Indonesia • Agreement on a timeline and structured negotiation on the post 2012 framework (a successor to the Kyoto Protocol). • These negotiations would take place during 2008 (leading to COP 14/MOP 4 in Poznan, Poland) and 2009 (leading to COP 15/MOP 5 in Copenhagen). • 2008 - COP 14/MOP 4, Poznań, Poland • Continue to discuss on a new target

33. Bali Roadmap Negotiate the emissions targets of Annex I parties to succeed the limits set by the Kyoto Protocol, which expire in 2012. Encouraged the participation of U.S. Re-emerging of U.S. with positive attitude The major developing countries to agree in principle to firm targets in the future Industrialized countries to commit to emissions cuts of 25-40% from 1990 levels by 2020. Nations should commit to greenhouse gas emissions reduction appropriate to their states of development

34. Adoption of the Kyoto Protocol COP1 in 1995 - Berlin Mandate: agreed on the adoption of a legally binding international treaty Adopted in Kyoto, Japan, on 11 December 1997 Entry into Force of the Kyoto Protocol Russia deposited the instrument of ratification in November 2004 Entered into force on 16 February 2005. The Kyoto Protocol: adoption & entry into force 34

35. < Main Contents >

36. 38 countries take reduction/limitation commitments - overall reduction of 5.2% below 1990 emission levels R.FED & UKRAINE 0% CANADA - 6% W&E EUROPE -8% JAPAN -6% US - 7% AUSTRALIA +8% Emissions Reduction Commitment N. ZEALAND 0% • Non-compliance • - emission < allowance : add the difference to the allowance of next commitment period • - emission > allowance : subtract from the allowance of the next commitment period. (subtract 130% of excessive emissions) 36

37. 1 2 3 Global efforts to respond to climate change following the UNFCCC Legally binding ER commitments of Annex I parties the Kyoto Mechanism → the Carbon Market created Main Implications of the Kyoto Protocol

38. The Kyoto Protocol Main provisions • Defined quantified GHG emissions reduction targets for Annex I parties • Introduced 3 market mechanisms, namely the Kyoto Mechanism -Joint Implementation, the Clean Development Mechanism, International Emission Trading (Article 6, 12, 17 respectively) • Allow to achieve emissions reduction target through international cooperation (Article 4) • Others: • Prepare a national system for the estimation of anthropogenic emissions by sources and removals by sinks of all greenhouse gases (Article 5) • All parties need consider their common but differentiated responsibilities (Article 10) • Developed countries to provide financial resources and the transfer of technology (Article 11)

39. The Kyoto Mechanisms: Art. 6, 12, 17 Conference of Parties Transfer/registration of emission credits & assigned amount Certify, issue CERs Developing Countries (Corporate) Developed Countries (corporate) Developed Countries (corporate) JI, ET CDM CDM Joint Implementation Emissions Trading (ET)) Industrialized countries with a greenhouse gas reduction commitment (called Annex 1 countries) to invest in projects that reduce emissions in developing countries as an alternative to more expensive emission reductions in their own countries. An Annex I Party may transfer to or acquire emission quotas from another Annex I Party. A developed country can receive "emissions reduction units" when it helps to finance projects that reduce net greenhouse-gas emissions in another developed country

40. Conditions for entry into force: Article 25 • For the entry into force of the Kyoto Protocol, • The Kyoto Protocol shall enter into force on the 90th day after the date on which not less than 55 Parties to the UNFCCC, incorporating Annex I Parties which accounted in total for at least 55% of the total CO2 emissions for 1990 of the Annex I Parties, have deposited their instruments of ratification, acceptance, approval or accession. <Annex I parties’ CO2 emission percentage in 1990>

41. Australia 108 Austria 92 Belgium 92 Bulgaria 92 Canada 94 Croatia 95 Czech Republic 92 Denmark 92 Estonia 92 European Community 92 Finland 92 France 92 Germany 92 Greece 92 Hungary 94 Iceland 110 Ireland 92 Italy 92 Japan 94 Latvia 92 Liechtenstein 92 Lithuania 92 Luxembourg 92 Monaco 92 Netherlands 92 New Zealand 100 Norway 101 Poland 94 Portugal 92 Romania 92 Russian Federation 100 Slovakia 92 Slovenia 92 Spain 92 Sweden 92 Switzerland 92 Ukraine 100 U.K. 92 U.S.A. 93 Quantified emission limitation or reduction commitment Annex B of the Kyoto Protocol (percentage of base year or period)

42. EU Burden Sharing Burden Sharing Target of the EU

43. Ultimate goal of Climate Change Conventions • “stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system” • Promoting environmentally sound technology and sustainable development Implications of UNFCCC and the Kyoto Protocol The first international convention aiming emissions reduction Allow different obligations to encourage global participation

44. Implications of the Kyoto Protocol • legally binding under international law • (Framework Convention on Climate Change, signed in 1992, only committed nations to "aim" to stabilize emissions ) • Set the emissions reduction as a global trend • A step stone for iterated reviewing of adequacy of the Commitments and Further Reductions • Trigger the further international efforts to prevent climate change

45. Questions and Comments