Pathways in Europe for Sustainable Energy - some examples from a new AGS project

1. Pathways in Europe for Sustainable Energy- some examples from a new AGS project Filip Johnsson Filip.johnsson@me.chalmers.se Department of Energy and EnvironmentChalmers University of Technology SE 412 96 Göteborg Edificación, Energía y Cambio Climático (EC)2

2. Outline of Presentation • Sustainability at Chalmers in short. Three initiatives: • GMV, Environmental network • CEI, Chalmers Environmental Initiative • AGS, Alliance for Global Sustainability • Examples from two projects on Pathways to Sustainable Energy Systems – a regional and a European • Power generation • Demand side – buildings • Conclusions

3. Heading towards a sustainable future SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT ”… development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs.” Brundtland Commission Report, 1987

4. Chalmers vision In harmony with sustainable development and through cross-border collaboration, Chalmers will be the first choice for research, education, training and innovation.

5. Chalmers and Göteborg University Cooperation via GMV - Environmental aspects and sustainable development about 50,000 students 2,500 faculty and PhD students 3,000 staff 10,600 students 1,600 faculty and PhD students 800 staff

6. GMV: • a network of 400 environmental scientists from Göteborg University and Chalmers University of Technology, Göteborg. • a joint venture between Chalmers and Göteborg University • a meeting point for activities. • a platform for projects.

7. Chalmers Environmental InitiativeOne initiative - seven areas

8. Rolf Wolff1 June 2000 Rolf Wolff Anne-Marie Tillman Hans Theliander Björn Malbert Donal Murtagh Filip Johnsson Christian Azar

9. Positive effects from CEI • Positive impact on Chalmers. • Credibility and identity within the area. • CEI funding as "scientific venture capital" has allowed the research groups to enter new areas. • Bridging between scientific areas. • Facilitated active participation in important international cooperation. • Attracted additional funding. • Good publicity and increased visibility.

10. The Alliance for Global Sustainability (AGS) is an international partnership between four of the world's leading science and technology universities: • Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, Zurich (ETHZ) • Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) • University of Tokyo (UT) • Chalmers University of Technology (Chalmers) • AGS goals • • Improving scientific understanding of global environmental challenges; • • Development of technology and policy tools to help societies reconcile ecological and economic concerns; and • • Education of a new generation of leaders committed to meet the challenges of sustainable development.

11. Background to project examples • EU policy aims at reducing GHG emissions by 15 to 30% until the year 2020 (rel 1990) • Limiting global mean temperature to 2°C above pre-industrial levels - long term stabilization of atmospheric GHG levels at 550 ppm CO2 equivalents. • To meet these goals the energy system has to undergo significant technical and institutional changes (typically reducing CO2 emissions with some 60% over the next 50 year period) • Economic, Social and Environmental sustainability must be maintained

12. Example 1. European Pathway project: Pathways to Sustainable European Energy Systems- a New AGS flagship project

13. How can pathways to a sustainable energy system be characterized and visualized and what are the consequences of these pathways? • …with respect to the characteristics of the energy system as such and for society in general

14. ..question divided into sub-questions such as • What is the critical timing for decisions to ensure that a pathway to a sustainable energy system can be followed? • What are ”key” technologies and systems for the identified “pathways” - including identification of uncertainties and risks for technology lock-in effects? • What requirements and consequences are imposed on the energy system in case of a high penetration of renewables? • What are the consequences of a strong increase in the use of natural gas? • What if efforts to develop CO2 capture and storage fail? • Where should the biomass be used – in the transportation sector or in the stationary energy system? • Are the deregulated energy markets suitable to facilitate a development towards a sustainable energy system?

15. Pathways to Sustainable European Energy Systems- priority on Bridging Technologies/Systems

16. The project – scope • Takes its basis in the existing energy system with this system described in a detailed way (Energy Infrastructure) • Pathway analysis for the next 50 years • European setting • General methodology • Future expansion of geographical scope

17. Methodology • Description of Energy Infrastructure • Supply side • The Chalmers Power Plant Database (EU25) • The Chalmers Fuel database • The Chalmers CO2 Storage Databases (EU25) • Member State Database (EU25) • Demand side • Databases on regional as well as on MS level with main characteristics of energy use – to be developed based on existing databases (e.g. Odyssee) • Modeling and analysis • 10 work packages address key questions

18. Power plant infrastructure

19. Thermal Power Plants in EU25

20. Coal (black) and lignite (brown) plants and potential CO2 storage sites Blue circles denote oil fields, red denotes gas fields, crossed grey denotes aquifers

21. External pipelines, existing (red) and constructing/planned (blue) (source: Chalmers Fuel Database) Existing capacity: 306 bcm Construction: 42 bcm Planned/Sugg: 104 bcm Uzghorod: 106 bcm (2003) Data from Chalmers power plant database

22. Thermal power generation capacity – EU25 Data from Chalmers power plant database

23. Power generation capacity - Germany Data from Chalmers power plant database

24. Power generation capacity - UK Data from Chalmers power plant database

25. Power generation capacity - SpainNote: Planned wind farms not included, planned bio plants not complete) Data from Chalmers power plant database

26. Development of power generation system- Germany and UK

27. Germany

28. German power generation 2000-2050(Phase out of existing plants according to Power Plant database) RES generation 2050: Wind: 164 TWh Biomass: 65 TWh Hydro: 29 TWh Geothermal/Solar (Others): 45 TWh BAU MED LOW Range to be covered 2050: 303 TWh – 628 TWh Data from Chalmers power plant database

29. If gap (grey areas in previous slide) is covered by gas:German Natural Gas (NG) consumption 2000-2050Note: Maximum use of renewables BAU 2050: 628 TWh NG for power: Up 300% - 600% (gas scenarios) 1990 - 2002 MED 2050: 466 TWh LOW 2050: 303 TWh

30. The German example tells us: • Large gap to be covered with fossil or nuclear energy • efficiency measures important! • Drastic increase in natural gas dependency (also for entire EU and for member states such as UK, Spain and Italy)

31. UK

32. Phase out pattern of present UK electricity generation system (including planned and approved facilities with assumed technical lifetimes and annual average full load hours) Data from Chalmers power plant database

33. UK electricity generation in present system and contribution of set targets based on maximum realistic penetration of RES and prescribed targets for gas technologies used for backup and peak production.

34. UK Gas consumption – RCEP1 Scenario

35. Conclusions from European Pathway project • Possibilities and limitations from the Energy Infrastructure (regional variations) • Important to have detailed information on the energy system – realistic assumptions on turnover in capital stock • Security of supply – e.g. increased natural gas dependency in Europe as well as in other regions • We must use bridging technologies/systems (NG, CCS, Co-firing etc) but avoid lock-in effects • Energy efficiency measures must be implemented!

36. Example 2. Regional Pathway project:Towards sustainable buildings- some experiences from Sweden

37. Aim of this work • to identify and systemize potentials for increased energy efficiency and substitution of fuel and heating systems in the existing building stock • to group potentials with respect to influencing factors, including operational and life-style factors • to discuss on policy measures to use some of the potentials identified in this work

38. Building sector – CO2 reduction strategies • increase energy efficiency • substitute fuels • reduce demand. investments in the power and heat generation side are mainly governed by business logics and related to public economy, investments in the demand side belong to the private household economy (residential buildings) - dependent on consumer preferences and consumer behaviouretc

39. Policy instruments • Most proposed policy measures are based on technical performance indicators which seldom include direct feedback mechanisms on energy performance (e.g. the recently proposed building declaration in EU, Directive 2002/91/EC, 2002).

40. Transforming the energy system for buildings- some difficulties • Investments in residential buildings are to a large extent based on consumer preferences and consumer behavior • e.g. investments in energy efficiency measures compared to spending on other goods which gives more immediate and direct satisfaction • Energy use is influenced from the way the house owner “operate” the house • Difficult for consumers to coordinate goals and interpret information from governmental boards and markets with respect to strategies for development of buildings and heating market

41. Transforming buildings over the next decades Infrastructure • Northern Europe – mainly transforming existing buildings and infrastructure • Some Member States (e.g. Spain, Ireland) – high degree of investments in new buildings and infrastructure Experiences from Sweden - some examples to illustrate influence of • turnover in capital stock • “life-style” factors and local conditions

42. 1. Turnover in capital stock - example • Possibilities to reduce dependency of electricity and oil for heating in the Swedish building sector – as in line with governmental policy • Compare a pathway in line with current policy (”Target scenario”) with current trends on the heating market (”Trend scenario”)

43. To include capital stock and local conditions • The energy infrastructure – the buildings with heating systems (e.g. age structure, geographical variations, heat density) • Details on the energy infrastructure provided by a database (Southern Sweden) • The database gives a detailed description of the energy infrastructure of the region (> 50 000 items) • The region studied is large enough for the results to be assumed representative for Sweden as a whole

44. Southern Sweden

45. Age structure of one- and two family houses with each age period divided with respect to heating system. Only buildings with heating systems which will be replaced

46. Electricity for heating (Sweden) Trend scenario, including current policy measures of 1.6 billion SEK (from January 2006) Trend scenario Target scenario

47. Current policy measures have more or less failed to meet governmental policy • Important to consider the capital stock turnover times, not only for the building itself but also for its different subsystems (“layers”) • renovations and replacement of heating systems

48. 2. Variations in energy-use related to “life style” factors and local variations in energy infrastructure (67 municipalities) • Etot total energy consumed (electricity, heat or cooling) • n and V are life-style factors • n is number of appliances • V is amount consumed (e.g. indoor temperature, amount of tap water) • Espec is specific energy used (defined by technology)

49. Grouping of the reductions potentials • Change in life style – simple (mainly n and V) • Increased efficiency in operation of house • Technical measures – simple (mainly Espec) • Technical measures – extensive (mainly Espec) • Measures on overall energy system (mainly Espec system factors) • Change in life style – extensive (mainly n och V)

50. Variation in energy use (heating and lighting) in 64 almost identical residential buildings (single-family houses) in the village “Stångby” in Southern Sweden (V) energy use varies with a factor of around 2.5! Espec Type 1 & 2