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Occurrence and Coverage of Winter Season Fog in the Northern Mid-Atlantic Paul J. Croft & Aaron N. Burton G & M Department of Geology and Meteorology Kean University Why Fog?? Low C/V directly impacts aviation as well as regular transportation particularly in the winter season

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occurrence and coverage of winter season fog in the northern mid atlantic

Occurrence and Coverage of Winter Season Fog in the Northern Mid-Atlantic

Paul J. Croft & Aaron N. Burton

G&MDepartment of Geology and MeteorologyKean University

why fog
Why Fog??
  • Low C/V directly impacts aviation as well as regular transportation particularly in the winter season
  • Improve forecasts of coverage & occurrence
  • Lack of knowledge
    • Fog studied widely from a micro-physical & mesoscale standpoint
    • Synoptic considers type of atmospheres that potentially produce fog
    • Improving forecasting and dispersal techniques
methods
Methods
  • Data collection
    • Fog frequencies obtained from F-6 reports @ http://www.erh.noaa.gov
    • Study Period: 3 seasons (Dec-Feb) 2003-2004, 2004-2005, & 2005-2006
  • Synoptic Classification
    • Classic approach
    • Microphysical approach
    • Physiographic approach
  • Spatial Distribution & Frequency of fog according to observed Synoptic Type
methods cont
Spatial Coverage Defined

Less than 4 sites report (<29% of sites): Localized

4 -10 sites report (29% to 71% of sites):

Scattered

More than 10 sites report (>71% of sites): Widespread

Fog Criteria

Capture as many events as possible for region – liberal/conservative

Fog is defined as FG or BR @ 5sm or less

Criteria for dense fog is visibility <1/4SM

Fog event defined when any one of the 14 stations reported fog on any day

Methods (cont.)
methods cont6
Methods (cont.)
  • Each fog event & non-event classified by synoptic type through inspection of DWM series
  • Type “A”: High; Type “B”: Low; Type “C”: Frontal
  • Subtypes determined by location of H/L with regard to the center of the region & FROPA type
  • Why Synoptic Typing?
    • To help determine the coverage according to the synoptic regime and local physiographic features
    • Isolate the primary factors related to fog coverage during those regimes and improve regional forecast
total frequency days fog by location
Total Frequency (days) Fog by Location

Very Frequent in Winter!

MPO Max

79%

215 events out of 271 possible days

Only 56 Non-Events

high pressure frequencies
High Pressure Frequencies

NE Urban Minimum

Very Sparse

low pressure frequencies
Low Pressure Frequencies

Northern Preference

frontal frequencies
Frontal Frequencies

Western Preference/MPO Max

Orographic/Marine Influences

composites
Composites

Examine synoptic regime

Consider zone forecasts

conclusions findings
Conclusions/Findings
  • Prime Locations – MPO, ISP, RDG
  • Although type “A” (High) was most frequent of all synoptic types, type “B” (Low) & “C” (Front) were more prolific & efficient at generating fog
  • “B” and “C” also had greater coverage & intensity
  • Warm Fronts and Low ‘S-SW’ significant
    • Maximum percentage of dense events occurred with the warm frontal events
    • Events associated with a Low S-SW were widespread
  • Forecast & Verification aspects to be considered
references
References
  • Baker, R., Cramer, J., and Peters, J., year: Radiation fog: UPS airlines conceptual models and forecast methods.
  • Bendix, J., 2002: A satellite-based climatology of fog and low-level stratus in Germany and adjacent areas. J. Atmos. Res., 64: 3-18.
  • Bott, A., and Trautmann, T., 2002: PAFOG: A new efficient forecast model of radiation fog and low-level stratiform clouds. J. Atmos. Res., 64: 191-203.
  • Croft, P. J., 2002: Encyclopedia of Atmospheric Sciences - Fog, Edited by James R. Holton, John Pyle, and Judith A. Curry December 2002, Elsevier / Academic Press, ISBN: 0-12-227090-8
  • Croft, P. J., Pfost, R., Medlin, J., Johnson, A., 1997. Fog forecasting in the southern region: A conceptual model approach. Weather and Forecasting, 12, 545-556.
  • Chang, Kang-tsung. Introduction to Geographic Systems. New York, New York, 2004.
  • Fuchs, W., Schickel, K. P., 1995: Aircraft icing in visual meteorological conditions below low stratus clouds. J. Atmos. Res., 36: 339-345.
  • George, J. J., 1963: Weather forecasting for Aeronautics. Eastern Airlines – Atlanta, Georgia.
  • Leipper, D. F., 1994: Fog on the U. S. west coast: A review. Bull. Amer. Met. Soc., 75, 229-240.
slide16

Acknowledgements

  • Department of Geology and Meteorology faculty and staff at Kean University
  • The Department in access to GIS software and laboratory resources
  • Dr. John F. Dobosiewicz and Will Heyniger
  • Philadelphia NWS and the Office of the New Jersey State Climatologist
  • Thankful for their support and helpful insights during the completion of this project.
  • The images provided by the NOAA-CIRES Climate Diagnostics Center, Boulder Colorado
  • http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/based on the NCEP Re-Analysis data. NCEP Reanalysis data provided by the NOAA-CIRES Climate Diagnostics Center, Boulder, Colorado, USA

Questions?

Thank you!