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Mesoscale Investigations and Modeling in the Northern Mid-Atlantic

Mesoscale Investigations and Modeling in the Northern Mid-Atlantic. Paul J. Croft and Shing Yoh. Mesoscale Variations…. Operational interest & concern Watch, Warn, HWO, Others (hazards or not) High Population Region & Customers Density, Diversity, Dependence

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Mesoscale Investigations and Modeling in the Northern Mid-Atlantic

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  1. Mesoscale Investigations and Modeling in the Northern Mid-Atlantic Paul J. Croft and Shing Yoh

  2. Mesoscale Variations… • Operational interest & concern • Watch, Warn, HWO, Others (hazards or not) • High Population Region & Customers • Density, Diversity, Dependence • Climate regions & Transition Zones • Physiography, Land Use, Seasonal Progression • Characteristic Patterns & Phenomena • Behaviors in Space & Time • Specification Important • Conceptual Understanding, Forecasts & Operations, Verification, & Modeling

  3. Cool season severe weather Winter season fog (Dec-Jan-Feb) Air Quality Index (spring-summer) October tropical cyclones (NJ) Rain-snow line (Dec-Jan-Feb) Sea breeze (spring-summer) Summer season convective initiation, distribution, coverage Lightning patterns (Jun-Jul-Aug) Intention Examine, from an operational perspective, the types of data & analyses that would best assist a forecaster in the spatial & temporal specification of the resultant sensible weather conditions & to determine how these vary with time as a function of local effects (e.g., physiography), mesoscale features, & the prevailing synoptic scale flow Select Significant Features/Issues Relevance to Region & Users Opportunity for Collaboration Research Collective & Community Items to consider… Synoptic Types ID **Null Events** Only 1% of the time...

  4. Methods to use… 215 events of 271 days =79% • Composite Analysis • GIS Mapping • Observational Data • Remote Sensing Data • Online Data Sets • Select Parameters • Statistical Analysis • Evolution & Conceptual …and need for modeling! Fog • Independent Study • Students Partnering with Faculty • External Support Localized – Scattered - Widespread

  5. Results & Features Air Quality Monitoring Sites HP SouthEast • AQI Patterns • October Tropical • Rain-Snow Line • Sea Breeze “Family” • Convective Initiation, Coverage, Lightning S IP ZR ZL R Initiates, Evolution, Coverage Synoptic Regime, Base State Flow

  6. What – WRF ARW v2.0.3 Where – Northeastern US, centered over New Jersey Why – Mesoscale feature behaviors, characteristics & dynamics How – Students & Partners Outcomes – Real-time data with numeric analyses for operational forecasting and research diagnostics Grid size : 100x100x31 Grid spacing : 15 km Model forecasts start at 00Z (7:00 p.m. EST) using NCEP NAM-ETA 00 UTC analysis Boundary conditions : every 6 hours from NCEP NAM-ETA 00 UTC forecast WRF: Operational & Research Investigations Family of Behaviors... ...to numeric determination Thanks ONJSC!

  7. Model Physics Microphysics: Ferrier microphysics Long wave: RRTM scheme Short wave: Dudhia scheme Surface layer: Monin-Obukhov (Janjic-Eta) Land surface: thermal diffusion Boundary layer: YSU Cumulus physics: Kain-Fritsch scheme Post analysis wrf2gem: WRF netCDF to GEMPAK converter Unidata GEMPAK Analysis Program Microsoft Excel Model Statistics Interpolated (Unidata GEMAPK gdgsfc) model surface forecasts to 16 ASOS observation sites (New Jersey and surrounding cities) Comparisons were made for hourly WRF forecast 2 meter temperature, 2 meter dewpoint, sea level pressure and 10 meter wind with observations at ASOS stations Kean University WRF 36h forecast(2005/08 to 2006/06 Configuration) http://hurri.kean.edu/nwpmodel

  8. Kean University WRF Configuration – now & future… • Update to WRF ARW v2.1.2 • WRF domain – expand grid size to 120x116x31 • Grid Spacing held at 15 km • Model forecasts start at 00Z (7:00 p.m. EST) based on NCEP NAM-WRF 00 UTC analysis • Boundary conditions: every 6 hours from NCEP NAM-WRF 00 UTC forecast • WRF Model Physics – unchanged • Addition of NJWXNET (high resolution mesoscale observations • GIS for geographical & other physiographical databases

  9. Relationships Flow Regimes... Significant Phenomena with… • Synoptic Regimes • Physiographic Features • Operational Analysis • Seasonal/Diurnal/Event Progression Operational Relevance using… • Behaviors & Timeline • Features & Characteristics • Family/Spectra of Phenomenal Attributes & Conceptual Model for Numerical Modeling • Interactions with Features Highlands Pallisades Watchung Raritan Valley Lawrence Harbor Soils & Surface Cover Pine Barrens Coastal Plain Delaware River Chesapeake Bay ...others

  10. The research investigations form the basis of the SECURED program… Student Educational Collective for Undergraduate Research Experiences and Development at Kean University Collectively… Kean University Operational Undergraduate Research in Meteorology & Professional Activities and Collaborative Training KU-OUR-METPACT Growth through Research in Operational Weather – Training HolisticallyGROWTH Undergraduate Students… ...& Climate! ...just a few!

  11. Partners… Department of Geology and Meteorology has established a variety of partnerships in the region… National Weather Service Office of the New Jersey State Climatologist Private Sector & Local Interests Others… • Tailor research to operational needs and outcomes • External & internal support (SpF Program Kean University) • Student stipends, supplies and/or equipment relative to the research activities, conference travel, other costs

  12. Outreach… Local Communities K-12 Education Kean University faculty, students, non-majors… Professional Organizations… Future Work… Expansion of studies Collaborative planning and performance of research and professional activities with students Numerical Modeling and Investigations continue… Conceptual Model development… Operational Applications & Our Future

  13. Thanks! Any Questions??? Acknowledgements Department of Geology & Meteorology Faculty & Staff, Students and Majors, Alumni Kean University Meteorology Program KU Upward Bound Program Center for Earth Science Education KU – Epsilon Corps Program

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