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National Emission Inventories Developments in South Africa: Current Status and Needs. P. Gwaze South African Weather Service patience.gwaze@weathersa.co.za GloEmissions User Workshop, 26-27 Nov 2009, Frascati . Outline. Current state of ambient air quality

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national emission inventories developments in south africa current status and needs

National Emission Inventories Developments in South Africa: Current Status and Needs

P. Gwaze

South African Weather Service

patience.gwaze@weathersa.co.za

GloEmissions User Workshop, 26-27 Nov 2009, Frascati.

outline
Outline
  • Current state of ambient air quality
  • Global emission inventory signatures over SA
  • Current status of emission inventories/developments
    • Regional and local initiatives
  • Needs for dynamic inventory development for southern/South Africa
  • Possible usage of inventory
state of ambient air quality soe 2004
State of ambient air quality – SoE, 2004
  • Air quality: DECREASING in general, with high sulphur dioxide and particulate matter (PM10) levels.
  • Vehicle exhaust emissions: INCREASING, with various pollutants predicted to increase by up to 44% by 2011 (from 2002 levels) if emission controls are not in place.
  • Energy consumption: INCREASED by 23% since 1992, with corresponding increase in coal consumption.
  • Households with electricity: INCREASED, from 50% in 1996 to 66% in 2001.
  • Health problems due to air pollution: INCREASING at an estimated 20% over the next decade.
no 2 sciamachy
NO2- SCIAMACHY

From the Institute of Environmental Physics, University of Heidelberg, Germany

Wenig et al., 2002

south african emission trends
South African ‘emission’ trends

Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center,

http://cdiac.ornl.gov

South AfricanNational Traffic Information System (eNaTIS)

http://www.enatis.com/

lightning contribution to nox
Lightning contribution to NOx?

de Coning, SAWS

http://www.nasa.gov

improving air quality
Improving air quality
  • New air quality legislation (NEMAQA, 2004)
    • Proactive air quality management planning by local authorities
    • New air quality standards to be gazetted early 2010
    • Tier approach towards WHO 2005 Guidelines
    • Sector-specific air quality controls
  • Vehicle emissions
global inventories
Global inventories
  • Differences in emission fluxes & distributions over country
    • EDGAR and POET giving the highest fluxes compared to than IPCC/RETRO
    • Differences largest in biomass burning fluxes
  • Also differences in locations and of temporal variation
  • Anthropogenic emissions contribute to largest fluxes
    • Misrepresentation due to changes in technology
  • Regional initiative – APINA?
annual nox
Annual NOx

RETRO

EDGAR

IPCC (NO)

POET

meridional sum over south africa co
Meridional sum over South Africa: CO

Anthropogenic

Biomass burning

status emissions inventory over south africa
Status: Emissions inventory over South Africa
  • No national emission inventory for criteria pollutants
  • National APPA large point sources from major industrial sectors
    • Petrochemical, Paper & pulp
    • Ferro-alloys, Aluminium smelting
    • Power generation, Iron & steel
  • ‘Priority’ areas
    • Vaal Triangle Priority Area (focusing on large point sources)
    • Highveld Priority Area inventory (pending)
  • Department of Transport (GHG and pollutants) & Agriculture (GHG)
  • Municipalities, Johannesburg, Durban, Cape Town
  • Inventories developed from research activities
    • Access to data??
    • Reliability??
    • Incomplete??
    • Hence global inventories
challenge tree current emission inventory status
Challenge tree: Current emission inventory status

National sectoral emissions reductions campaigns difficult to justify

National air quality modelling almost impossible

Impacts of significant new developments difficult to assess

The national emissions profile is very difficult to assess

Emissions data is incomplete

National Emissions data is difficult to gather

Emissions data may be inaccurate

Emission data is difficult to analyse

Only a few industries are required to report emissions

The few industries required to report emissions report to different AELA

Emissions are reported in different ways

Only hard copy reports provided

P. Lukey, DEA

objectives tree developing a new national inventory
Objectives tree: Developing a new national inventory

National sectoral emissions reductions campaigns easy to prioritise and justify

National air quality modelling informs air quality management plans and decisions

Impacts of significant new developments easy to assess

The national emissions profile is readily available to inform air quality management decisions

Emissions data set is complete and up to date

National Emissions data is readily available

Emissions data is accurate and comparable

Emission data is easy to analyse and compare

Significant industries are required to report emissions

Significant industries required to report emissions report to centralised database

Emissions are reported in standardised formats

Electronic emission data reports provided

P. Lukey, DEA

needs for dynamic emissions inventory
Needs for dynamic emissions inventory

Development of a national emissions inventory

  • Emissions inventory database
    • South African Air Quality Information System (SAAQIS) on www.saaqis.org.za
    • SAWS and Department of Environmental Affairs (DEA) partnership currently AQ monitoring module only
    • Phase II initiating in 2010
      • TOR under construction
      • 3 year project (?), biogenic (?)
  • Baseline/verification of coming national inventory
  • Air quality modelling and forecasting
    • Research in atmospheric dispersion modelling
    • Ground – satellite observations disjuncture
    • Future AQ forecasting
needs for dynamic emissions inventory20
Needs for dynamic emissions inventory
  • Regional trans-boundary pollution
    • Understand recirculation of pollutants over the region – SAFARI 2000
    • Understand SA contribution to regional air quality
conclusions
Conclusions
  • Requirements as GloEmissions user
    • Spatial coverage and resolution?
    • Temporal resolution?
    • Atmospheric constituents – IPCC pollutants, criteria pollutants of CO, NOX, SO2, NMVOCs, PM10, NH3, O3?
  • SA needs dynamic regional (and local) emissions inventory
    • Guide/inform the development of a national inventory
    • Baseline/verification for the inventory
    • Database module - SAAQIS
    • Air Quality modelling purposes
    • Policy purposes (?)
slide23

Baseline of the future national inventory

  • Emissions inventory database
  • Air quality forecasting
  • Regional trans-boundary pollution