Phenology: Nature's Calendar and Citizen Science

1. Erin Posthumus • Outreach Coordinator • USA National Phenology Network • Phenology

2. What is phenology? From the Greek phainō meaning "to show, to bring to light, make appear" Recurring plant and animal life cycle stages and their timing and relationships with climate and other abiotic factors

4. Phenology is nature’s calendar May – Flower Moon February – Worm Moon www.farmersalmanac.com/full-moon-names/ Photo Credits: Wikimedia Commons September – Harvest Moon November -Beaver Moon

5. Harvest corn when oak leaves are the size of a mouse’s ear Once lilac flowers have faded, plant squash and cucumbers When crabapple and wild plum are at budbreak, eastern tent caterpillars are hatching Tradition and lore

6. “Phenology, in short, is a ‘horizontal science’ which transects all ordinary biological professions. Whoever sees the land as a whole is likely to have an interest in it.” Aldo Leopold

7. Why is phenology important? • Health • Resource management • Conservation • Agriculture • Understanding hazards • Recreation

8. Phenology as an indicator “Phenology…is perhaps the simplest process in which to track changes in the ecology of species in response to climate change.” (IPCC 2007)

9. What drives phenology? Tom Grey

10. What drives phenology? Tom Grey

11. What drives phenology? Flowering phenology of elegant clarkia, Clarkia unguiculata Photos: Alisa Hove, Jose Montalva From the California Phenology Project

12. Invasives change the story

13. Phenology Shifts CaraDonna et al 2014

14. Phenology Shifts • Range limits moved 6.1 (±2.4) km per decade northward/m per decade up in elevation • Earlier spring timing of 2.3 days per decade • 62% of 677 species showed trends towards spring advancement in phenology Parmesan and Yohe 2003

15. Phenology Shifts • Earlier leaf-out of trees • (Menzel 1999, 2000, 2001, Carter et al 2017) • Earlier flowering • (Bowers 2007, Inouye 2008, Kimball et al. 2009, Crimmins et al. 2011) • Earlier arrival of migratory birds and butterflies • (Ahas 1999, Bradley et al 1999, Roy and Sparks 2000, McKinney et al. 2012, Wood and Kellermann 2015) • Earlier breeding and egg laying in birds and amphibians • (Beebee 1995, Brown et al. 1999) • Earlier animal emergence from hibernation • (Inouye et al. 2000, Forister & Shapiro 2003, Ozgul et al. 2010)

16. Phenological Mismatch Graphic: nadiah.org/phenology.html Both et al. 2006

17. Phenological Mismatch Mayor et al 2017

18. Phenological Mismatch Zimova et al 2016

19. Phenological Mismatch Photo: Juneauempire.com Deacy et al 2017

20. Phenological Mismatch Photo: Juneauempire.com Photo: Winterthur Garden Blog Heberling et al 2019

22. Photo: Tom Grey McKinney, et al 2012

23.  Broad-tailed hummingbird, Photo: Tom Grey McKinney, et al 2012

24. Sonoran Desert 1980s Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May 2000s Cold-adapted plants Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Kimball et al 2010

25. Finger Rock Trail 1200 m elevation gradient Crimminset al. 2009

26. Finger Rock Trail 25 years later, 93 of 363 plants shifted 1200 m elevation gradient Crimminset al. 2009

27. Southwest phenology = it’s complicated • Predicted Southwest climate changes: • Warmer • Precipitation harder to predict • Longer growing seasons? • More extreme heat events • Freezes still possible Take home: we need more data!

28. Citizen Science

29. Scientific research conducted, in whole or in part, by amateur or nonprofessional scientists What is citizen science? • Also known as: • crowd science • crowd-sourced science • civic monitoring • volunteer monitoring • networked science • participatory monitoring/research

30. Known by other names throughout history Term first entered into Oxford English Dictionary in 2014 Great increase in programs in the 1990s – why? History of citizen science Photo: Albert Herring, Wikimedia commons

31. Early citizen scientists Photos: Thoreau Powell, images from the National Portrait Gallery, Washington, Nina Leopold Bradley photo from Journal Sentinel files, Jefferson portrait by Rembrandt Peale Jefferson Thoreau Powell Leopold-Bradley

32. The increasing prevalence of CitSci Dramatic growth between 1997 to 2014 in publications featuring citizen science Follet and Strezov 2015, PLoS ONE

33. The value of citizen science Significance of citizen science to research greater than perceived “Quality of data collected by volunteers, on a project-by-project basis, has generally been found as reliable as the data collected by professionals" Cooper et al 2014, PLoS ONE

34. The value of citizen science Volunteers contribute ~$2.5B annually to biodiversity research Theobald et al 2015, Biological Conservation

35. The value of citizen science www.epa.gov/climatechange/science/indicators/ecosystems/bird-ranges.html

36. The value of citizen science Flowering plants 2012. Primack, R. B, Miller-Rushing, A.J 7 day average Photos: Brian F Powell, Thoreau image from the National Portrait Gallery, Washington, Nina Leopold Bradley photo from Journal Sentinel files Sandhill crane and geese 1999. Bradley, N.L., Leopold, C.A., Ross, J., Huffacker, W. Day of Year 2-3 week average 61years

37. Citizen Science Opportunities

39. What is USA-NPN all about? Collect • Store • Share phenology data & information • Advancing Science • Informing Management • Communicating & Connecting

40. How do we get the data? 14,000+ active observers 12,000+ active sites 15M+ records* *As of Mar 2019

41. How do we observe phenology? Observable life cycle events or PHENOPHASES Reproduction Activity Development ANIMAL Flowers Leaves Fruits PLANT

42. Status Status & Abundance Types of Phenology Data Collected Activity Reproduction Development Event Day of year

43. Nature’s Notebook: Protocols Standardized protocols for 975 plant and 369 animal species* *as of 2019

44. Nature’s Notebook: Interface Paper datasheets and a web browser OR mobile apps

45. Nature’s Notebook: Training Resources online and in print, including an Observer Certification Course, coming this month!

46. Nature’s Notebook: Quality Control • Quality assurance – for the data coming in • Quality control – for the data in the National Phenology Database Available at www.usanpn.org/pubs/reports

47. Nature’s Notebook: Data Visualization • Personalized phenology calendars and tools for data exploration of all data in the National Phenology Database

48. Data freely available for download • www.usanpn.org/results/data

49. Data Products

50. Data Products