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CONCEPT NOTE

CONCEPT NOTE. TITLE :Elephant population dynamics in relation to change in the structure and composition of Woody vegetation in Amboseli Ecosystem. INTRODUCTION.

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CONCEPT NOTE

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  1. CONCEPT NOTE TITLE :Elephant population dynamics in relation to change in the structure and composition of Woody vegetation in Amboseli Ecosystem

  2. INTRODUCTION • Considerable progress has been made by both NGO’s and the Kenyan government in conserving the environment, particularly the Amboseli Ecosystem. Elephants which were the main target of poachers in 1980’s because of booming ivory trade are now enjoying protection from both the government and other stake holders, except a few cases of human elephant conflicts.

  3. However, as Elephant numbers continue to increase the Woody vegetation continue to lose its richness. Though Elephants are not the sole loss of Woody vegetation, they contribute immensely to changes in the structure and the composition of trees and shrubs in Amboseli. They mainly depend on Woody vegetation for shelter and food.

  4. Increase in Elephant population translates to increase in grazing pressure, hence decrease in composition of Woody vegetation. It is projected that if the current trend continues, Woody vegetation will be exhausted, Elephants will reduce drastically or be rendered extinct.

  5. PERSONAL INFORMATION • Name: Eric MboyaOchwang’I • School: University of Nairobi • Course: Msc Social Statistics • Duration: October 2012-October 2014

  6. PROBLEM STATEMENT • Elephants play a key role in enhancing economic growth through tourism. In the past four decades, Amboseli Ecosystem has experienced increase in the population of Elephants. Though this trend is encouraging, Woody vegetation which is the main food resource for Elephants, has been lost in major parts of Amboseli thus giving rise to Grasslands. Our main concern is how we will ensure that elephant increases as woody vegetation is restored.

  7. OBJECTIVES • To determine the type of Woody Species and classes most affected by Elephants • To determine the movement of Elephants within the Amboseli basin and its adjacent areas. • To show long term changes of Woody vegetation in Amboseli. • To quantify the impact of Elephants on the structure and composition of Woody vegetation within Amboseli.

  8. To show the Impacts of seasonal changes on the production of elephants. To compare the long term changes of Elephant population based on gender in Amboseli basin

  9. METHODOLOGY • Our analysis will involve Generalized Linear Models as well as Time Series Analysis techniques.

  10. OUTPUT • Demonstrate the importance of long-term monitoring of large mammals in Amboseli. • Introduce a statistical equation linking Elephant production with changes in Woody vegetation. • Project the status of elephants over time. • Recommend the best ways to increase the composition of Woody vegetation without affecting the production of Elephants.

  11. BUDGET

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