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Operational numerical models

Operational numerical models. Meteorology 415. Operational Numerical Models. Operational Numerical Models. Operational Numerical Models. SREF Upgrade – August 21, 2012. SREF Modeling System Changes :

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Operational numerical models

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  1. Operational numerical models Meteorology 415

  2. Operational Numerical Models

  3. Operational Numerical Models

  4. Operational Numerical Models

  5. SREF Upgrade – August 21, 2012 • SREF Modeling System Changes: • 1. Remove two of the four models currently used in the SREF: the Eta and the Regional Spectral Model (RSM). A new model will be added: the Non-hydrostatic Multiscale Meteorological Model on the B grid (NMMB). • 2. Upgrade two Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model cores in model version from WRF v2.2 to WRF v3.3: Non-hydrostatic MultiscaleMeteorological Model (NMM) and Advanced Research WRF (ARW). • 3. Increase the NMM and ARW horizontal resolution from 32/35km to 16km. The NMMB will also have a 16km horizontal resolution. • 4. Increase the number of WRF members for NMM and ARW from 5 to 7. There will be 7 members for the new NMMB model.

  6. SREF Upgrade – August 21, 2012 • 5. Increase diversity by selecting physics schemes used in existing models: NAM, GFS, NCAR, HWRF and Rapid Refresh (RAP). • 6. Increase Initial Condition (IC) diversity by: -Using RAP analysis as a control analysis for the ARW, NAM analysis used for the NMMB, and GFS analysis used for the NMM. -Mixing IC perturbation schemes by using a mix of the Global Ensemble Transform with Rescaling (ETR), regional Breeding and blending between the two. • -Increasing the Land Surface Initial States (LSIS) diversity by using the LSIS from the NAM, GFS, and RAP. • 7. New capabilities will be added in post-processing SREF data: • -Bias correction (by frequency matching) of the precipitation forecasts for both individual members and the ensemble mean. • -Clustering with two methods, NCEP and University of Oklahoma, with output including a text table about each cluster's membership and size, a GRIB output of probability of each cluster, and a GRIB output of cluster products for the mean and spread of thirty-nine fields, as well as the probabilities for 2-meter temperature and 3hr-accumulated precipitation. • -Performance ranking of each ensemble member, providing different weights for different members in both text and GRIB format. • -Statistical surface down-scaling from 16km SREF to 5km NDGD grid using the 5km Real-Time Mesoscale Analysis (RTMA) fields. • 8. Modified the snow liquid ratio from being fixed at 10:1 to a surface temperature dependency method.

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  25. HRRR summary – part 2 • High-frequency (every 1h) 3-d objective analyses over all of North America, assimilating the following types of observations: • Commercial aircraft (including moisture data from WVSS-II sensors) • Profiler related • Wind profilers (404 and boundary-layer 915 MHz) • VAD (velocity-azimuth display) winds from NWS WSR-88D radars • RASS (Radio Acoustic Sounding System) • Rawinsondes and special dropwinsondes • Radar reflectivity (3-d) • Surface • Surface reporting stations and buoys (including cloud, visibility, current weather) • Mesonet (defer to RAP version 2) • Satellite • AMSU-A/B satellite radiances • GOES satellite radiances (defer to RAP version 2) • GPS total precipitable water estimates • GOES cloud-top data (pressure and temperature) • GOES high-density visible and IR cloud drift winds • Experimental • Lightning - defer to RAPv2 (used in ESRL RAP since Jan 2012) • Special wind-energy observations - defer to RAPv2 (used in ESRL RAP)

  26. Conclusion • RUC will be replaced with the RR in late May, 2012 • HRRR can be found at: http://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrrconus/ • NAM-NMMB can be found at: • http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mpyle/cent4km/conus/bgrid/ (implemented – Oct 18, 2011) • NAM-DNG will be a downscaled version of NAM(B) to 2.5 km (will be run to 60 hrs) (Nov-early Dec) • RTMA was downscaled to 2.5 km on Oct 4 12z

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