do you know what it takes to manage global change wisely
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Do you know what it takes to manage global change wisely?. EARTH. System. ?!. Analysis. Why do we need Earth System Analysis ?!. […] there is no previous analogue for the current operation of the Earth System […]. Modus Operandi. atmosphere. terrestrial ecosystems. marine

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Presentation Transcript
slide2
EARTH

System

?!

Analysis

why do we need earth system analysis
Why do we need Earth System Analysis ?!

[…] there is no previous analogue

for the current operation

of the Earth System […]

slide5
atmosphere

terrestrial

ecosystems

marine

ecosystems

human

dimensions

slide6
atmosphere

terrestrial

ecosystems

marine

ecosystems

human

dimensions

slide7
atmosphere

terrestrial

ecosystems

marine

ecosystems

human

dimensions

slide8
atmosphere

terrestrial

ecosystems

marine

ecosystems

human

dimensions

Do we know how

good old earth is

working now?

e s a
E S A

To complex for a single mind, a single discipline, a single nation, a single interest.

Thus…

…inter-disciplinary

…inter-nationational

…inter-objective (balance of interests)

limits to growth world3
Limits to Growth – WORLD3
  • World3 – complex but basically simple
  • Causal relationships between the earth‘s biological systems and human (economic) development
  • It‘s all about the development of stocks, such as…

…human population

…industrial capital

…environmental pollution

…natural resources

world3 is not about absolute figures
WORLD3 is not about absolute figures…

…it‘s about trends, causal relationships, feedback loops

world3 assumes
World3 assumes…

…unlimitedGrowth

of…

…population

…capital

 until the physical limit is reached

world3
World3

Central question:

What happens now?!

population growth 1

Population growth 1

Earth‘s ecological capacity

source: limits to growth – 30y update

world population

time

population growth 2

Population growth 2

Earth‘s ecological capacity

source: limits to growth – 30y update

world population

time

population growth 3

Population growth 3

Earth‘s ecological capacity

we are here

source: limits to growth – 30y update

world population

time

population growth 4

Population growth 4

Earth‘s ecological capacity

we are here

source: limits to growth – 30y update

world population

time

slide20
Safe

landing

?!

source: limits to growth – 30y update

slide23
IGBP Objective
  • To describe and understand Earth System dynamics
  • focusing on the interactive biological, chemical and physical processes
  • the changes that are occurring in these dynamics
  • and the role of human activities in these changes
slide24
IGBP II Structure

source: http://www.igbp.net/page.php?pid=184

slide25
Earth System Science Partnership

START

source: http://www.igbp.net/page.php?pid=184

Health

slide27
Integrated Regional Studies
  • assess the influence of regional processes on Earth System functioning (and vice-versa)
  • be integrative (natural and social sciences, all components of the Earth System, planning to synthesis)
  • contribute sound scientific understanding in support of sustainable development in the region
  • be scientifically-driven by scientists in the region, with global collaboration
slide28
Large Scale Biosphere-Atmosphere Experiment in Amazonia (LBA)
  • 80 research groups - 600 scientists
  • How does Amazonia function as a regional entity (e.g., natural cycles of water, energy, aerosols, carbon, nutrient and trace-gases)?
  • How will changes in land use and climate affect the biological, chemical and physical functioning of Amazonia, including its sustainability and influence on global climate?

source: http://www.igbp.net/page.php?pid=184

take home message
Take home message

Earth system analyses/models show trends, not figures.

ESA can be used as an early warning system

ESM should be used as a political tool to design rough national and international strategies for decades to come

IRS should be used a regional planning tool for sustainable development wherever available

slide30
For more information on ESA, ESM and global change research, visit:

http://www.igbp.net

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