1 / 20

Climate Governance and Development, Berlin, 28-30 Sep 2008

Climate Governance and Development, Berlin, 28-30 Sep 2008. Lose-Lose Risks and Win-Win Options. Professor Hans Joachim Schellnhuber CBE Potsdam Institute, Oxford University, Tyndall Centre. Multi-model Averages and Assessed Ranges for Surface Warming. 6.0. 5.0. 4.0.

liora
Download Presentation

Climate Governance and Development, Berlin, 28-30 Sep 2008

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript


  1. Climate Governance and Development, Berlin, 28-30 Sep 2008 Lose-Lose Risks and Win-Win Options Professor Hans Joachim Schellnhuber CBE Potsdam Institute, Oxford University, Tyndall Centre

  2. Multi-model Averages and Assessed Ranges for Surface Warming 6.0 5.0 4.0 Globally averaged warming (ºC) 3.0 2.0 1.0 A1FI A1B A1T A2 B2 B1 0.0 -1.0 1900 2000 2100

  3. Cooling Effect of Aerosols (Ramanathan & Feng 2008 PNAS)

  4. Dangerous Warming Commitment (Ramanathan & Feng 2008 PNAS)

  5. G8-Scenario and R&F‘s Invisible Hand (Schellnhuber 2008 PNAS)

  6. Integrated Assessment Consider 3 crucial aspects of sustainable climate protection measures: • Mitigation • Adaptation • Development

  7. Action Field Check Identify • Ecological Assets • Economic Sectors • Social Systems highly sensitive to subset / totality of aspects Prioritize accordingly!

  8. Lose Development Lose Stagnate Stagnate Adaptation Win Win Win Stagnate Lose Mitigation Invest in Win-Win-Win Options Disencourage Lose-Lose-Lose Risks

  9. LLL Examples • Urbanization of coastal zones, mountain ranges, arid regions • „Stradification“ of natural habitats • Expansion of single-purpose fossil-fuel-based power stations WWW Examples • Reduction of black carbon emissions through biomethane generated from degraded-land afforestation • Solarthermal power generation + desalinization by energy towers • Sustainable architecture

  10. Vulnerable Coastal Megacity: Mumbai

  11. The Phoenix Metropolitan Area

  12. Nouakchott, Mauritania

  13. www.faszination-regenwald.de u. a.

  14. 17 % of current global primary energy demand 81 EJ/yr 557 Mha (not irrigated) Fractional Plantation Area (2nd Generation Bioenergy) Bioenergy Potential (no irrigation) • Biodiv/Wilderness moderatelyprotected • Cropland not expanded Erbrecht and Lucht, unpub.

  15. Energy Tower Principle

  16. Climate-fit urban design invented 2000 years ago

More Related