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POSOH – ForCLIMATE Research “ Retreat! ”. Jun 2013 Prof. Ankur Desai University of Wisconsin-Madison. FOR est and C limate L eaders I n M enominee and T he E nvironment!. Where are we?. Three Big Ideas.
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POSOH – ForCLIMATEResearch “Retreat!” Jun 2013 Prof. Ankur Desai University of Wisconsin-Madison
FORest and Climate Leaders In Menominee and The Environment!
Three Big Ideas • Our burning of almost 10 billion tons of carbon in fossil fuels every year allows us to support a world with 7 billion people
Three Big Ideas • Our burning of almost 10 billion tons of carbon in fossil fuels every year allows us to support a world with 7 billion people • However, this act is changing the climate by 3-9 degrees F through doubling or tripling greenhouse gases in the air such as carbon dioxide
Three Big Ideas • Our burning of almost 10 billion tons of carbon in fossil fuels every year allows us to support a world with 7 billion people • However, this act is changing the climate by 3-9 degrees F through doubling or tripling greenhouse gases in the air such as carbon dioxide • Ecosystems and its constituents play a big and complicated role through the global carbon cycle andcurrently absorb half of our fossil fuel emissions
The Plan • Introductions • Schedule and Logistics • Big Ideas!
Introductions • Name • Where are you from? • What do you do/what year are you in school? • What did you want to be when you were 10? • What will you be doing 10 years from now?
Logistics • Goal is to provide exposure to research methods in global change science and ecosystem ecology • We will study atmosphere, soils, lakes, and vegetation • Be prepared for field conditions (bugs, rain)! • Food! Sleeping! Fun!
Schedule • Weekend 1 • Friday • Welcome / Team Building • Dinner! • Bonfire • Saturday • Morning: Activity block 1 • Afternoon: Activity block 2 • Evening: Dinner out + Medicine Wheel teachings • Sunday • Morning: Activity block 3 • Afternoon: Activity block 4 • Evening: Dinner out + Climate change policy discussion • Monday • Reflections • Lunch and clean up
Activity blocks • Here at Kemp: • Lakes • Satellites and meteorology • At Willow Creek: • Soils • Vegetation and carbon
What makes our current era unique? • What will we be remembered for 1,000 years from now?
Three Big Ideas • Our burning of almost 10 billion tons of carbon in fossil fuels every year allows us to support a world with 7 billion people
If the World were 100 PEOPLE: 50 would be female 50 would be male 26 would be children There would be 74 adults, 8 of whom would be 65 and older There would be: 60 Asians 15 Africans 14 people from the Americas 11 Europeans There would be 33 Christians 22 Muslims 14 Hindus 7 Buddhists 12 people who practice other religions 12 people who would not be aligned with a religion http://www.100people.org/
12 would speak Chinese 5 would speak Spanish 5 would speak English 3 would speak Arabic 3 would speak Hindi 3 would speak Bengali 3 would speak Portuguese 2 would speak Russian 2 would speak Japanese 62 would speak other languages 83 would be able to read and write; 17 would not 7 would have a college degree 22 would own or share a computer 77 people would have a place to shelter them from the wind and the rain, but 23 would not 1 would be dying of starvation 15 would be undernourished 21 would be overweight 87 would have access to safe drinking water 13 people would have no clean, safe water to drink
Total Global Emissions Total global emissions: 10.4±0.7PgC in 2011, 37% over 1990 Percentage land-use change: 36% in 1960, 18% in 1990, 9% in 2011 Land-use change black line: Includes management-climate interactions Source: Le Quéré et al. 2012; Global Carbon Project 2012
Three Big Ideas • Our burning of almost 10 billion tons of carbon in fossil fuels every year allows us to support a world with 7 billion people • However, this act is changing the climate by 3-9 degrees F through doubling or tripling greenhouse gases in the air such as carbon dioxide
Do you believe in global warming? • What is climate? • Why is the earth like a greenhouse? • What is electromagnetic radiation? • What is a greenhouse gas?
Do you believe in global warming? • What is climate? • The average weather in some area over a long length of time like 30 years
Do you believe in global warming? • What is climate? • Why is the earth like a greenhouse? • Earth’s surface absorbs energy from the sun and heats the air above, which absorbs and emits electromagnetic radiation, which further heats the surface
Do you believe in global warming? • What is climate? • Why is the earth like a greenhouse? • What is electromagnetic radiation? • All objects in the universe emit radiation (light), whose amount and type depend on temperature and its structure. The sun emits visible light, the earth mostly emits infrared light
Do you believe in global warming? • What is climate? • Why is the earth like a greenhouse? • What is electromagnetic radiation? • What is a greenhouse gas? • Most of air is oxygen and nitrogen, which does not absorb much infrared radiation, but water vapor and carbon dioxide can absorb quite a bit. Gases that absorb infrared radiation efficiently are greenhouse gases
Svante Arrhenius To explain the ice age, Arrhenius estimated that halving of CO2 would decrease temperatures by 4 - 5 °C (Celsius) and a doubling of CO2 would cause a temperature rise of 5 - 6 °C. In his 1906 publication, Arrhenius adjusted the value downwards to 1.6 °C (including water vapour feedback: 2.1 °C). Recent (2007) estimates from IPCC say this value (the Climate sensitivity) is likely to be between 2 and 4.5 °C. Arrhenius expected CO2 doubling to take about 3000 years; it is now estimated in most scenarios to take about a century.
