Jacob Ashik Bonofer Center for Asia Studies, Chennai, India

1. Implications of the protracted Sri Lankan Ethnic War on the Socio-Economic, Political and Military fabric of Sri Lanka Jacob Ashik Bonofer Center for Asia Studies, Chennai, India Paper Presented at Third Australasian Conference on The Economics and Politics of War and Peace On 26th and 27th June 2009 At the University of Sydney, Australia.

2. Key Points Introduction Eelam War IV Short Background to the Ethnic Crisis Social Implications Political Implications Military Implications Economic Implications Recommendation

3. Introduction 18th May 2009, D-Day for Sri Lanka More than 300,000 IDPs in 24 camps Diaspora against the Sri Lankan Government International Opinion Divided 200,000 + 100,000 Strength of Armed forces 20,000 cadres with arms footloose Economy in shambles Loans and Aid from west blocked.

4. Eelam War IV • Presidential elections of 2005 – and the coming to power of President Rajapakse – LTTE role • Too many Ceasefire violations after the elections • War Started in July 2006 in the Eastern Province • East free within one year • Northern Province Theater of War since August 2007 • January 3, 2008 – Formal withdrawal from Ceasefire agreement • May 18, 2009 end of Eelam War IV.

5. Reasons of the War and Defeat of LTTE Tamil Home land aspiration of V. Prabhakaran Under-estimation of the President Mahinda Rajapakse 2004 Asian Tsunami 2004 Split in the LTTE (Karuna Faction) International Isolation of the LTTE – Consequences Use of Aerial Bombardment Political non-interference on the Military actions Weak political opposition in Sri Lanka

6. Background to the Ethnic Crisis in Sri Lanka History as a matter of Conflict Psychological aspects of the Historical Roots Colonial Legacy Policies of the Government of Sri Lanka Problem of unemployment and loss of educational opportunities Failure on the part of the Tamil political leadership to find a solution (divided Tamil polity) Role of Tamil armed groups (especially LTTE) 1983 pogrom and the Start of Eelam War I

7. Eelam War II and the role of India and IPKF Eelam War III since 1994 2002 Ceasefire Agreement and the Peace Process facilitated by Norway Six rounds of talks Political disarray in Sri Lanka Split within LTTE

8. Social Implications More than 300,000 as IDPs in Northern Province – will remain so for another three years IDP Camps have poor infrastructure – Government does not allow humanitarian agencies to work, except for very few in particular camps. IDPs in the Eastern Province still remain in camps – rehabilitation not done properly – most not allowed to go back to their places, but reallocated to a new place. Anti- LTTE Paramilitary groups given free hand to identify LTTE cadres and eliminate them.

9. Social Implications contd... • Extremely poor medical facility for the injured. – roughly 50,000 badly injured. • More than 1/3 of the IDPs are children and women mostly orphaned. Future a big question mark • Government plans of colonization of the North and East – change of demographic pattern • Education, livelihood and future of Tamils ??????

10. Political Implications Country has gone back to square one. Tamil feel that they have become beggars hence they fear there would be no proper political package Tamils lack leadership, - rift within the Tamil parliamentarians. Government talk of home grown model – federalism ? What would Tamils get? 13th Amendment + 1 government ambiguous in its plans Tamil Diaspora extremely active against the Sri Lankan Government – a problem for ordinary Tamils All are equal? – Affected Tamils would be further marginalized. Insincerity on the part of Sinhala polity? – future of Tamils Opposition has been silenced by the current President – hence monolithic power centre

11. Military Implications • No more a ceremonial army – Military is in control of the government. • Currently 200,000 + 100,000 addition • Requires 1.6 billion to maintain its huge armed force • Plans of settling the Sinhalese soldiers in the northern province of Sri Lanka. • Militarism as the power centre. • Future of such huge military – as they would have very little role since the end of war. • Possible scenario's for the use of military • Recoup of Tamil Militancy • Uprising of Sinhalese youth like 1970’s

12. Economic Implications • War economy • High Inflation – although government projections show a low level • Military expenditure – huge white elephant – Currently at 1.6 US$billion • High unemployment rates • Little international humanitarian aid support • Rising humanitarian costs • Bankruptcy of Foreign Reserves • De-Mining a factor to reckon with

13. Little response from the Diaspora unlike 2002 • Effects of global economic crisis on the expatriate income. • Tea / Rubber / Textiles/Tourism–affected or no growth • Agriculture – slow growth in the North and East due to the war. • Role of regulations on the Humanitarian Aid Agencies and also INGO’s • Expectations • End of war could increase tourism • Investment by MNCs in North and East • Role of China/India/ and other international actors in demining and also providing employment opportunities • Role of Sri Lankan Diaspora

14. Recommendations • Social • Proper treatment of the IDPs – medical and infrastructure development • Allowing the humanitarian agencies to work among the IDPs • Rehabilitation – under the auspices of the international agencies • Political • Political sincerity for a viable political package is a must. • Non-settlement of Sinhalese in the North. • Recognition of Tamil Parties – not affect them due to their past role • Political Consensus within the Southern Sri Lankan Polity • Local Tamils not to be affected because of International Pressure.

15. Military • Military to have a controlled role – also inclusion of all ethnic community. • Military should move away from center stage • Reduction of the Armed Forces • Accountability on Expenditure of the armed forces • Economic • Allow International Organisation to work in Sri Lanka to increase foreign reserves • Accountability on the Economic Front. • Invest more on Fishing and Agriculture in the North and East • Allow MNCs to Invest in the North and East – north just south. • International Community • Should accept the reality and look at humanitarian issue • Political solution to be taken at a later stage • Should emphasize on safe rehabilitation of the Tamils • Accountability on the International Aid

16. Thank You