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2007 South Coast AQMP/SIP Ozone & PM2.5 Control Strategy

2007 South Coast AQMP/SIP Ozone & PM2.5 Control Strategy. Laki Tisopulos, Ph.D., P.E. Assistant Deputy Executive Officer South Coast Air Quality Management District NACAA Spring Membership Meeting May 6, 2008.

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2007 South Coast AQMP/SIP Ozone & PM2.5 Control Strategy

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  1. 2007 South Coast AQMP/SIPOzone & PM2.5 Control Strategy Laki Tisopulos, Ph.D., P.E. Assistant Deputy Executive Officer South Coast Air Quality Management District NACAA Spring Membership Meeting May 6, 2008

  2. Boundaries of the South Coast Air QualityManagement District and Federal Planning Areas 2

  3. 180% 300 160% O3 8-Hour 250 Design Value (ppb) 140% 120% 200 100% Activities Percent Increase in Population and Design Value (ppb) 150 80% 60% 100 80 40% 50 20% 0% 0 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Demographic Projections and Ozone Air Quality Trend YEAR O3 8-Hour Population VMT Housing Units Design Value

  4. 2005 South Coast Air Basin Quality Compared to Other U.S. Cities Percent of Standard 200% 150% 100% 50% 0% South Coast Houston Philadelphia New York Washington Atlanta Chicago Phoenix D.C. Ozone (8-hour) Ozone (1-hour) PM2.5 (Annual) PM10 (Annual) CO (8-hour) NO2 (Annual)

  5. 2005 Annual Average PM2.5 Concentration

  6. PM2.5 Disproportionate ExposureSouth Coast Air Basin Population-Weighted Exposure Above NAAQS Based on2000-2002 AIRS Data Rest of Nation 48% Rest of California 18% South Coast 82% South Coast 52% Source: California Air Resources Board

  7. Recent CARB Assessment of PM Health Effects SCAB Cases/Year due to PM2.5* Premature Deaths 5,400 Hospitalizations 2,400 Asthma & Lower Respiratory 140,000 Symptoms Lost Work Days 980,000 Minor Restricted Activity Days 5,000,000 *1999-2000 Air Quality Data Source: California Air Resources Board

  8. Emissions by Major CategorySCAQMD PM2.5, 2014 8-Hr Ozone, 2023 Area Sources 10% On-Road 39% Off-Road 41% Point Sources7% On-Road 25% Fugitive Dust3% PointSources8% Off-Road 41% Area Sources 26% (NOx, SOx, PM2.5) (VOC, NOx)

  9. Primary Emissions Responsibilityby Agency PM2.5, 2014 8-Hr Ozone, 2023 CARB57% CARB56% District20% District23% EPA24% EPA20% (NOx, SOx, PM2.5) (VOC, NOx)

  10. VOC Annual Average Emissions 2014

  11. NOx Annual Average Emissions 2014 tons per day

  12. SOx Annual Average Emissions 2014 tons per day

  13. Directly Emitted PM2.5Annual Average Emissions-2014 tons per day

  14. Goods MovementGrowth 2001-2020 • 300 % increase in cargo through the ports • 170% increase in truck travel • 150% increase in rail cargo

  15. Design Principles • Expeditious Progress • Meet Attainment Deadlines • Minimize Cost Impacts to Degree Practicable • All Feasible Measure and Promote Fair Share Responsibility

  16. Control Strategy Design • Step I • Maximum controls of SOx and directly emitted PM2.5 • Necessary NOx controls • Modest VOC controls to ensure progress toward ozone attainment • Step II • Continue NOx control programs • Necessary VOC reductions • Attainment Demonstration • All grid cells • At or below the standards

  17. 2007 AQMP Control Strategy • District’s Stationary and Mobile Source Control Measures • State and Federal Control Measures • CARB’s Proposed Concepts • District Staff’s Recommended State and Federal Stationary and Mobile Source Control Measures • SCAG’s 2004 RTP/2006 RTIP • Long-Term Strategy

  18. Plan Summary • Inclusive Control Strategy • 2015 PM2.5 Attainment • 2024 Ozone Attainment • 31 - Stationary Source Measures • 30 - Mobile Source Measures Emissions Reductions Needed

  19. Highlights of Control Measures • New Development and Re-Development Projects • Consumer Products Certification and Use Restrictions • Facility Modernization • Backstop Rule for Ports and Port-Related Facilities

  20. Highlights of Control Measures(cont) • Cleaner Fuel in Ocean Going Vessels Auxiliary and Main Engines • Ocean-Going Vessels While At Berth At A California Port • Off-Road Engine In-use Standards • Local Opt-in Surplus Reductions • In-Use On-Road Heavy-Duty Diesel Vehicles

  21. Market Incentive Programs • Public/Private Investment to Accelerate Fleet Turnover • Carol Moyer Program • AB923 • Prop 1B • Others

  22. Challenges on the Horizon • Revised 24-Hour PM2.5 Standard • 65 μg/m3 to 35 μg/m3 • EPA designations finalized (12/2008?) • AQMP due three years following final designation • Revisions to the 8-Hour Ozone Standard • New standard: 0.075 ppm • Final designations finalized (12/2010)

  23. Predicted Maximum 24-hour PM 2.5 Concentration (2021) Standard35ug/m3 Speciated PM2.5

  24. Summary • Concerted effort underway to implement 2007 AQMP control strategy • Federal partnership needed • New air quality standards pose significant challenge to attainment by 2020 and beyond

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