1 / 25

Disaster Preparedness and Need Assessment in the Aftermath of Floods in Pakistan (2010)

Disaster Preparedness and Need Assessment in the Aftermath of Floods in Pakistan (2010). Presented by: M. Tariq Yousafzai ibc208tamu@gmail.com. 1. The starting of chain of events. Monsoon rains of summer 2010 were heavy and lasted for three months (monsoon region)

licia
Download Presentation

Disaster Preparedness and Need Assessment in the Aftermath of Floods in Pakistan (2010)

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Disaster Preparedness and Need Assessment in the Aftermath of Floods in Pakistan (2010) Presented by: M. Tariq Yousafzai ibc208tamu@gmail.com 1

  2. The starting of chain of events • Monsoon rains of summer 2010 were heavy and lasted for three months (monsoon region) • Climate change (conference in Copenhagen) • According to UN (August), the number of people affected by these massive floods could exceed the combined total of three mega disasters 2

  3. Three Reports have emerged • Pakistan Floods 2010- Preliminary Damage and Need assessment (ADB and WB) • Civil Society Rapid Appraisal of Flood Damage and Need Assessment (Rural Development Policy Institute, the Pakistan Debt Cancellation Campaign and Oxfam) • The UN prepared an additional report entitled, “The Pakistan Floods Emergency Response Plan” Continued…... 3

  4. The Role of Government and NGOs • Government Exaggerating loses to receive large amounts of foreign aid • Foreign Agencies Underestimate the damage due to “restricted access” NGOs Underestimate the damage due to “restricted access” 4 w

  5. For example Announcements made after 2005 earthquake • First, • There was no mention of causalities • Second, • Then came a report of hundreds • Third, • Then thousands and within a week the number rose to scores of thousands 5

  6. The actual statistics were… • 7500 thousand killed and similar number injured. • 10 thousand school buildings were damaged or destroyed with around 850 teachers and 18000 students died • Around 65% of the 800 hundred health facilities were destroyed or badly damaged • Over 400,000 thousand homes were damaged or destroyed 6 www.themegallery.com

  7. The impact of infrastructure • The impact was felt around 100km • 75% of the single story buildings (stone made) could not stand the shocks • Quality of mortar very poor 7 www.themegallery.com

  8. 8 www.themegallery.com

  9. 9 www.themegallery.com

  10. 10 www.themegallery.com

  11. 11 www.themegallery.com

  12. Cyclone SIDR-Bangladesh • Bangladesh is a very poor country with a per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP) that takes it 196 our of 229 countries in the world 12 www.themegallery.com

  13. SIDR continued.. • Now the Satellite Surveillance and computing model helps to warning some 72 hours in advance • Use of Symbols is important as majority of population living in CHARS is illiterate • 44 thousand volunteers help in first aid, post cyclone security, destruction damage assessment and distribution of relief material • Warning fatigue—underestimation of and under-preparedness for the danger 13 www.themegallery.com

  14. Coming back to Floods continued.. • There was a large variable in damage and rehabilitation assessment ranging from $1 billion to $ 7 billion Flood estimates of 2010 • The estimates or assessments of the damages caused by the recent floods also vary greatly • For example $ 8 billion to $ 20 billion or even more • According to World Bank ($10 Billion) 14

  15. Estimates continued…. 2010 floods • ADB seem on the lower side due to original costs having been used, rather than the inflated rates (The solution to this would be discussed during the seminar) • What we see is that Pakistani Government lacks foresight and the ability to foresee a disaster and plans for urgent response. • Everything is done on an ad hoc and Day to Day basis • What about voluminous reports???? 15

  16. SUGGESTIONS • Pakistan military should e involved • Land and revenue departments should be involved in need assessment • The reports by WB and ADB do not reflect the true situation as their methodologies are scientific but data is not • The report CIVIL SOCIETY RAPID APPRAISAL OF FLOOD DAMAGES and need assessment do not account for the province of KPK 16

  17. Suggestions continued… • Three groups overlooked are • (a) women sufferings (b) minority groups (c) laborers and peasants • On the other hand the Ministry of Finance estimates about $30 billion • Government of Pakistan estimated $43 billion • Educated guess might be in the region of $20 billion in terms of estimates 17

  18. Salient features of various reports • According to ADB/WB the damage of crops property and infrastructure is equal to $9.5 billion • Ministry of finance estimates $30 billion • Government of Pakistan ignoring the ministry of finance estimates, indicate a figure of 43 billion USD (fearing lesser aid) • Punjab was hardest hit (crops) • According to UN estimates the floods affected and displaced 20 million people, with 6 million children, 20,000 people lost their lives, six million people are homeless (DSSORAY) • According to Govt of Pakistan 724,000 houses have been destroyed (KP 42,000) a total of 97 villages were affected in Peshawar, 105 in Nowshera, 80 around Charsada, and 182 in Mardan district 18

  19. Continued… • According to the agricultural officials quoted in WB report floods affected 17 million acres of agricultural land, destroyed half a million tons of wheat and 2 million bales of cotton • About 100,000 head of livestock perished overnight 19

  20. Continued.. • Floods have pushed Pakistan back by 50 years in terms of infrastructure, electricity and communications • In KPK alone 112 schools, 201 hotels and 137 bridges were swept away DISCUSSION QUESTIONS • The central issue is that of credibility of the assessing organization? • Do the Government has any other option but to trust and believe the ADB/WB • Disaster management is a well developed and complicated science that WB and ADB are supposed to have mastered, especially in view of their experience in dealing with calamities learning from experience, as discussed in course outlines) 20

  21. Continued… • World Bank has worked with (a) Bhola cyclone in 1970 Former East Pakistan (b) Indian ocean Tsunami (c) Haiti earthquake last year (d) Cyclone Nargis, the Kohistan avalanche (5) In order to challenge the WB/ADB assesment which is based on scientific methodology, the Pakistani Government and NGOs, would have to evolve a credible alternative technology of damage-and need-assessment? 21

  22. Concluding remarks • The WB/ADB “Damage and assessment” report is based on scientific methodology, but lacks EXTENSIVE AND DETAILED INFORMATION as a result an estimate of $10 billion is far lower than a realistic actual damage. • A causal factor in the lower estimate is probably due to the use of historic costs (no provision for positive depreciation and accumulation) ignoring inflation. • For example a house costing Rs100,000 in the 1980s would now be about 2 billion to rebuild • A more realistic estimate figure would be $ 20 billion 22

  23. Continued • It is suggested that the involvement of the staff of land and revenue departments (patwaris and tehsildars) and Army personnel posted in the area can give a more realistic assesment. • They know the people of the area and they usually have the local resources to do the job. • Any other interesting findings so far..???? 23

  24. 24 www.themegallery.com

  25. Thank You ! Lets do things in a better way 25

More Related