Creating a Shared Vision Model

1. Creating a Shared Vision Model

2. What is a Shared Vision Model? A “Shared Vision” model is a collective view of a water resources system developed by managers and stakeholders. It is used to facilitate plan development, implementation and maintenance.

3. Wait a second! Why discuss Shared Vision Models now? Are Shared Vision Models part of the seven steps? Shared Vision Models can enhance each stage of the planning process

4. Shared Vision Models Can Establish the status quo • Highlight important problems • Communicate constraints • Focus planning objectives

5. Shared Vision Models Can • Identify promising strategies • Fine-tune targets Assess the impacts of a plan

6. Shared Vision Models Can Facilitate plan implementation • Perform environmental assessments • Brief decision makers • Inform the public

7. Shared Vision Models Can • Conduct Virtual Drought Exercises • Review strategic plans Maintain plan effectiveness

8. Models In Water Resources Planning • One of the earliest non-military applications of computers was to water resources • Harvard Water Program foresaw the major impacts of computers • Simulation and optimization models have been used to provide operational guidance, forecast future conditions, and facilitate planning for many years

9. Traditional Models Traditional water resources models • Developed and used by analysts • Developed for the use of a single agency • Created with little outside input • Written in FORTRAN • Run on mainframe computers

10. Limitations of Traditional Models as Planning Tools Common model limitations as planning tools • Require extensive time to create • Require extensive training • Require extensive data that may be difficult to obtain

11. Common Model Limitations as Planning Tools • Are viewed as black boxes by non-developers • Can not be customized to facilitate planning decisions • Can not be run interactively and lack transportability • Represent a single vision

12. Characteristics of Today's Shared Vision Models • Object Oriented: Flexible - Interactive - Transparent • Run on Multiple Platforms: Transportable • Jointly Developed and Used: Neutral - Accessible • And as a result Shared Vision models are: Useful - Trusted - Endorsed

13. Object Oriented Environments Traditional Environments Model Development Interface Procedural Code Graphical Model Development Training Required High Moderate Programming Effort High Low/Moderate Modification Effort High Very Low Mode of Use Batch Interactive User Interface Input File Graphical Training to Use Low High Ease of Understanding Low High Comparison of Traditional and Object-Oriented Simulation Environments

14. Perceived Advantages of Shared Vision Models Shared Vision Models • Improve analysis • Are more flexible • Communicate more effectively • Cost less to develop than traditional approaches

15. Modeling Philosophy Shared Vision Models should • Be developed with wide support • Improve communication among managers and stakeholders • Disseminate information equally • Improve planning and management of water resources • Serve as a basis for effective negotiation

16. Structure Model Development Process Conceptualize System Construct Model Test and Validate Model Enhance/Modify Model Gain Stakeholder Endorsement Establish Ongoing Role For Model Overview of Model Development Process Define Modeling Objectives

17. Desired Characteristics of Model Developer(s) Collectively the model development team should possess • Respect and trust of stakeholders • Strong communication skills • Previous modeling experience • Strong technical skills • A broad-based understanding of the system

18. Roles of Managers and Stakeholders in Model Development Advisory • Participate in interviews • Share knowledge of the system • Shape modeling objectives • Critique prototypes

19. Roles of Managers and Stakeholders in Model Development Active Assessments • Independently test and use model • Participate in virtual drought exercises Hands-On • Participate in model construction

20. Steps in Creating Shared Vision Models Step 1. Define modeling objectives Step 2. Structure the model development process Step 3. Conceptualize the system Step 4. Construct model Step 5. Evaluate and test the model Step 6. Confirm stakeholder endorsement Step 7. Enhance/modify model Step 8. Establish guidance for ongoing model use

21. Step 1. Define Modeling Objectives Modeling objectives define what should be accomplished by the modeling effort. To define modeling objectives we must ask • Who will use the model? • How will it be used? As well as • Who will be impacted by the model? • What are the planning objectives?

22. Step 2. Structure the Model Development Process • Involve managers and stakeholders • Identify constraints and potential obstacles • Identify tasks and establish a time line • Identify resource requirements • Assign roles and responsibilities

23. Step 3. Conceptualize the System • Interview managers and stakeholders and review previous studies • Delineate required components • Determine what is not required • Define appropriate level of system detail • Identify an appropriate time step • Identify performance measures that will be modeled

24. Identify Module Functions Layout System Components Indicate Which Components are Related Specify Functional Relationships Gather Necessary Data Incorporate Data Into the Model Document Model Diagram and Equations Step 4. Construct Model Steps in Model Construction: Create Tables and Graphs Create User Interface

25. Typical Components of a Shared Vision Model Planning objectives Hydrology Reservoirs Ground water supplies Demands Forecasts Operating policies Constraints Triggers Water rights priorities Regulations & policies Performance measures Robust documentation Modeling assumptions

26. Step 5. Evaluate and Test the Model Developers must • Verify the model • Validate the model • Identify areas of uncertainty and sensitivity

27. Model Verification Stakeholders, managers, and analysts must verify that • The model contains all critical components • Components are correctly related • System behavior

28. Model Validation With the verified model, we must ensure that the model can mimic past system behavior: • Average conditions • Extreme conditions Appropriate metrics must be used to compare model output with historical data.

29. Sensitivity Analysis During sensitivity analysis we determine • How changes in variables or assumptions impact system performance • Which input variables are most uncertain This provides an understanding of • Which input variables most influence system performance • Where more reliable information is needed

30. Step 6. Confirm Stakeholder Endorsement To obtain model endorsement, model developers must • Ensure that model content is understood • Convey assumptions • Demonstrate model validity • Illustrate model’s value in planning and decision making • Address concerns that are raised

31. Step 7. Enhance/Modify Model Before making model enhancements • Identify requested changes • Identify why the change is needed • Prioritize requested modifications • Consider available resources • Document changes (who, why, when, how)

32. Step 8. Establish Guidance for Ongoing Model Use To ensure continued model usefulness managers and stakeholders must • Identify a caretaker for the model • Identify how the model will be maintained • Create training opportunities • Develop ground rules for model distribution and use

33. Summary • A “Shared Vision” model represents the collective view of water resource managers and stakeholders. It facilitates plan development, implementation and maintenance. • Shared Vision models have several desirable characteristics that enhance their usefulness as planning tools. • Model development teams must be carefully chosen. • Stakeholder input is essential to shared vision model development. • Guidelines for long-term model use, distribution, and maintenance should be established.

34. Exercise