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  1. WFS/CPS © copyright 2000 A Training Proposal By Wildland Fire Specialists

  2. How to Base Actions on the Predicted Fire Behavior • We know the rule well but… • Do we know how to be sure we can comply? • All firefighters should be able to predict the changes in fire behavior. • This is the course focusing on that objective. The Campbell Prediction System

  3. BACKGROUND • Doug Campbell retired from the U.S. Forest Service in 1984 after 30 years in fire. Is working for the Ventura Co. Fire Department as their FBA on prescribed burns and wildland fires. Doug has over 40 years of wildland fire fighting experience. • Leanne Campbell is skilled in the support of the teaching efforts. She handles Logistics, Planning and Finance functions. The Campbell Prediction System

  4. The learning curve • Starting as a crewman on an engine doing initial attack. • 2 years, US Navy weatherman duties during the Korean conflict, assigned to the USS Pickaway APA-222 • Back to the Forest Service in Prevention. • Promoted to engine captain doing initial attack again The Campbell Prediction System

  5. The learning curve • Promoted to Hot Shot Superintendent of the El Cariso Hot Shot Crew in 1961 and 1962 learning handline construction on large wildland fires. • Promoted to Asst. Fire Management Officer learning supervision. Red carded Division Boss The Campbell Prediction System

  6. The learning curve • Promoted to District Fire Management Officer on the Sequoia Forest then to the Los Padres forest, learning fire management. • Red carded as Class 2, I.C., Class-I Ops Chief, FBA and Training Officer. Served on a Class 1 fire team as OPS for 6 years. The Campbell Prediction System

  7. 28 friends died in burnovers during my career. • I believe these were predictable fire behavior events. • Why are firefighters getting burned over at all? • How do some firefighters seem to be able to avoid entrapment? • What do they/we know that makes the difference? The Campbell Prediction System

  8. PAYBACK TIME • Doug decided to make an effort to add a measure of wildland fireground wisdom. • In 1990 he authored a book titled, “TheCampbell Prediction System” • It was funded and published by Doug in 1991 and is now in its third edition. The Campbell Prediction System

  9. PAYBACK TIME • Doug wrote a course outline and began teaching fire department personnel. • The learning curve began all over. • Since 1991, 3,000 students have taken the course taught by Doug and Leanne. • 89% of the students rate the course very useful. The Campbell Prediction System

  10. The Mission Statement • Provide information to firefighters that teaches them how to make observations of wildland fires and understand the fire behavior variations that will affect their safety or efficiency. The Campbell Prediction System

  11. Vision Statement • All firefighters will come to know the fire signature prediction methods, fireground language and logic. • The CPS book and the course will become part of the required curriculum for firefighters. The Campbell Prediction System

  12. Goals & Objectives • To establish the ethics to be used in wildland fire fighting. “To win each engagement without loss and injury. To know what the fire is about to do or don’t engage it.” • To provide train the trainer courses, graphics and classroom materials to the fire service. The Campbell Prediction System

  13. WFS/CPS © copyright 2000 First, read the book, then take the training course “CPS” The acronym for the book

  14. The Book is a good investment • The book costs $20 and is available from: Wildland Fire Specialists P.O. Box 1506 Ojai Ca. 93023 Or by ordering through www.dougsfire.com The Campbell Prediction System

  15. There is a Workbook also • The workbook costs $14 • The workbook outlines exercises for students to apply the course information The Campbell Prediction System

  16. Student Package • The cost of the complete student handout package of textbook, workbook flammability and reference cards is $37. The Campbell Prediction System

  17. Students will use tactics maps • How to indicate fire tracks on tactical maps • How to identify dangerous locations • How to determine a time tag or trigger point for changing tactics The Campbell Prediction System

  18. Students will learn • How burnover situations have been avoided such as on the Dillon Fire. • The use of a time tag avoided an entrapment. The Campbell Prediction System

  19. Compare Dillon & So. Cyn. The Campbell Prediction System

  20. Why did one group see it and another not?. The Campbell Prediction System

  21. Student exercises…... • Table top simulations using maps and solid terrain models. The Campbell Prediction System

  22. Students will learn • How time tags can be determined using the Shadometer and fuel flammability card. The Campbell Prediction System

  23. Cost of the training: • Doug & Leanne will give a bid to any agency for delivery of the course of study. • The teaching fee for one day of training is $1,200 • Add $37 per student and travel and subsistence expenses. The Campbell Prediction System

  24. Costs Vs. Value Received • The cost is low when you compare the cost of not providing this training. • One good decision can pay back all the costs. • Any amount spent on this training will be repaid many times over. The Campbell Prediction System

  25. Course Title:Fire Signature Prediction Methods • 16 hours of classroom training and exercises. • Delivered using PowerPoint projection and video clips of fire situations. • Solid terrain models and instruments to measure and display atmospheric and surface conditions. The Campbell Prediction System

  26. An example of the use of signature prediction • The fire has various intensities at the head, flanks and heel. • Predicting how the fire is going to change as it burns over the terrain can be done using the Signature Prediction Method that is taught in the course. The Campbell Prediction System

  27. First, describe the scene The Campbell Prediction System

  28. A topography ruled fire with wind as the dominate force The Campbell Prediction System

  29. Signature Predictions The Campbell Prediction System

  30. Where will the intensity change first? The Campbell Prediction System

  31. What force will cause the change and what will it be? The Campbell Prediction System

  32. Wind, Slope & Solar Pre-heatare the causes of the variations observed here. The Campbell Prediction System

  33. The different alignment of forces can be predicted The Campbell Prediction System

  34. Where they are less of an influence the fire will ease The Campbell Prediction System

  35. Are they less or more here? The Campbell Prediction System

  36. What will the fire look like when it gets here? The Campbell Prediction System

  37. The head is going out of alignment and will ease. The Campbell Prediction System

  38. The fire replicated the lower flank signature The Campbell Prediction System

  39. If you knew what it was going to do, the tactics would be right for the situation The Campbell Prediction System

  40. Application of training • Firefighters need to predict these changes to be safe and effective. • They need to know how to use logic to assess the observations made. • They need to know how to communicate how they know what the fire is going to do. The Campbell Prediction System

  41. This training is more useful • No time for models during initial attack. • No time for Nomograms. • The fire is telling you what you need to know to be safe and effective. • The fire signature can be used to predict the degree of change. The Campbell Prediction System

  42. The fire went out of alignment and burned as the flank signature did The Campbell Prediction System

  43. Key Issues • Near Term • Firefighters need to know when and where a wildland fire is about to change, for safety. • Order books and schedule a class • Long Term • Consider qualifying trainers to give this course and adopt it into your department’s program • Order a 24-hour train the trainer class The Campbell Prediction System

  44. Agencies Adopting CPS • The Los Padres National Forest. • Ventura County Fire Department. • Los Angeles City and County Fire Departments. • Sacramento Fire Departments. • Tahoe Fire Departments. • Nevada Fire Departments The Campbell Prediction System

  45. Agencies Adopting CPS • Catalunya fire departments in Spain • Pike/San Isabel National Forest. • Redding Hot Shot Crew. • Pleasanton/Livermore Fire Department • Elk Grove Fire Department. The Campbell Prediction System

  46. Institutions offering the course • State Fire Marshals Academy - Asilomar 40 hours training. • Allen Hancock College - Vandenberg USFS South Zone Training Center 16 hours training. • Redding Hot Shot Crew, Redding CA. The Campbell Prediction System

  47. Support Documents Course Evaluation Training Cost Endorsements Fuel Temperature Course outline Overview Video Sequence Student List The Campbell Prediction System

  48. WFS/CPS © copyright 2000 Thank You And be safe out there Doug & Leanne Campbell