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A Training Proposal. By Wildland Fire Specialists. How to Base Actions on the Predicted Fire Behavior. We know the rule well but… Do we know how to be sure we can comply? All firefighters should be able to predict the changes in fire behavior. This is the course focusing on that objective.

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how to base actions on the predicted fire behavior
How to Base Actions on the Predicted Fire Behavior
  • We know the rule well but…
  • Do we know how to be sure we can comply?
  • All firefighters should be able to predict the changes in fire behavior.
  • This is the course focusing on that objective.

The Campbell Prediction System

background
BACKGROUND
  • Doug Campbell retired from the U.S. Forest Service in 1984 after 30 years in fire. Is working for the Ventura Co. Fire Department as their FBA on prescribed burns and wildland fires. Doug has over 40 years of wildland fire fighting experience.
  • Leanne Campbell is skilled in the support of the teaching efforts. She handles Logistics, Planning and Finance functions.

The Campbell Prediction System

the learning curve
The learning curve
  • Starting as a crewman on an engine doing initial attack.
  • 2 years, US Navy weatherman duties during the Korean conflict, assigned to the USS Pickaway APA-222
  • Back to the Forest Service in Prevention.
  • Promoted to engine captain doing initial attack again

The Campbell Prediction System

the learning curve5
The learning curve
  • Promoted to Hot Shot Superintendent of the El Cariso Hot Shot Crew in 1961 and 1962 learning handline construction on large wildland fires.
  • Promoted to Asst. Fire Management Officer learning supervision. Red carded Division Boss

The Campbell Prediction System

the learning curve6
The learning curve
  • Promoted to District Fire Management Officer on the Sequoia Forest then to the Los Padres forest, learning fire management.
  • Red carded as Class 2, I.C., Class-I Ops Chief, FBA and Training Officer. Served on a Class 1 fire team as OPS for 6 years.

The Campbell Prediction System

28 friends died in burnovers during my career
28 friends died in burnovers during my career.
  • I believe these were predictable fire behavior events.
  • Why are firefighters getting burned over at all?
  • How do some firefighters seem to be able to avoid entrapment?
  • What do they/we know that makes the difference?

The Campbell Prediction System

payback time
PAYBACK TIME
  • Doug decided to make an effort to add a measure of wildland fireground wisdom.
  • In 1990 he authored a book titled, “TheCampbell Prediction System”
  • It was funded and published by Doug in 1991 and is now in its third edition.

The Campbell Prediction System

payback time9
PAYBACK TIME
  • Doug wrote a course outline and began teaching fire department personnel.
  • The learning curve began all over.
  • Since 1991, 3,000 students have taken the course taught by Doug and Leanne.
  • 89% of the students rate the course very useful.

The Campbell Prediction System

the mission statement
The Mission Statement
  • Provide information to firefighters that teaches them how to make observations of wildland fires and understand the fire behavior variations that will affect their safety or efficiency.

The Campbell Prediction System

vision statement
Vision Statement
  • All firefighters will come to know the fire signature prediction methods, fireground language and logic.
  • The CPS book and the course will become part of the required curriculum for firefighters.

The Campbell Prediction System

goals objectives
Goals & Objectives
  • To establish the ethics to be used in wildland fire fighting. “To win each engagement without loss and injury. To know what the fire is about to do or don’t engage it.”
  • To provide train the trainer courses, graphics and classroom materials to the fire service.

The Campbell Prediction System

cps the acronym for the book
WFS/CPS © copyright 2000

First, read the book,

then take the training course

“CPS” The acronym for the book

the book is a good investment
The Book is a good investment
  • The book costs $20 and is available from:

Wildland Fire Specialists

P.O. Box 1506

Ojai Ca. 93023

Or by ordering through www.dougsfire.com

The Campbell Prediction System

there is a workbook also
There is a Workbook also
  • The workbook costs $14
  • The workbook outlines exercises for students to apply the course information

The Campbell Prediction System

student package
Student Package
  • The cost of the complete student handout package of textbook, workbook flammability and reference cards is $37.

The Campbell Prediction System

students will use tactics maps
Students will use tactics maps
  • How to indicate fire tracks on tactical maps
  • How to identify dangerous locations
  • How to determine a time tag or trigger point for changing tactics

The Campbell Prediction System

students will learn
Students will learn
  • How burnover situations have been avoided such as on the Dillon Fire.
  • The use of a time tag avoided an entrapment.

The Campbell Prediction System

compare dillon so cyn
Compare Dillon & So. Cyn.

The Campbell Prediction System

why did one group see it and another not
Why did one group see it and another not?.

The Campbell Prediction System

student exercises
Student exercises…...
  • Table top simulations using maps and solid terrain models.

The Campbell Prediction System

students will learn22
Students will learn
  • How time tags can be determined using the Shadometer and fuel flammability card.

The Campbell Prediction System

cost of the training
Cost of the training:
  • Doug & Leanne will give a bid to any agency for delivery of the course of study.
  • The teaching fee for one day of training is $1,200
  • Add $37 per student and travel and subsistence expenses.

The Campbell Prediction System

costs vs value received
Costs Vs. Value Received
  • The cost is low when you compare the cost of not providing this training.
  • One good decision can pay back all the costs.
  • Any amount spent on this training will be repaid many times over.

The Campbell Prediction System

course title fire signature prediction methods
Course Title:Fire Signature Prediction Methods
  • 16 hours of classroom training and exercises.
  • Delivered using PowerPoint projection and video clips of fire situations.
  • Solid terrain models and instruments to measure and display atmospheric and surface conditions.

The Campbell Prediction System

an example of the use of signature prediction
An example of the use of signature prediction
  • The fire has various intensities at the head, flanks and heel.
  • Predicting how the fire is going to change as it burns over the terrain can be done using the Signature Prediction Method that is taught in the course.

The Campbell Prediction System

first describe the scene
First, describe the scene

The Campbell Prediction System

signature predictions
Signature Predictions

The Campbell Prediction System

where will the intensity change first
Where will the intensity change first?

The Campbell Prediction System

wind slope solar pre heat are the causes of the variations observed here
Wind, Slope & Solar Pre-heatare the causes of the variations observed here.

The Campbell Prediction System

are they less or more here
Are they less or more here?

The Campbell Prediction System

the fire replicated the lower flank signature
The fire replicated the lower flank signature

The Campbell Prediction System

if you knew what it was going to do the tactics would be right for the situation
If you knew what it was going to do, the tactics would be right for the situation

The Campbell Prediction System

application of training
Application of training
  • Firefighters need to predict these changes to be safe and effective.
  • They need to know how to use logic to assess the observations made.
  • They need to know how to communicate how they know what the fire is going to do.

The Campbell Prediction System

this training is more useful
This training is more useful
  • No time for models during initial attack.
  • No time for Nomograms.
  • The fire is telling you what you need to know to be safe and effective.
  • The fire signature can be used to predict the degree of change.

The Campbell Prediction System

the fire went out of alignment and burned as the flank signature did
The fire went out of alignment and burned as the flank signature did

The Campbell Prediction System

key issues
Key Issues
  • Near Term
    • Firefighters need to know when and where a wildland fire is about to change, for safety.
    • Order books and schedule a class
  • Long Term
    • Consider qualifying trainers to give this course and adopt it into your department’s program
    • Order a 24-hour train the trainer class

The Campbell Prediction System

agencies adopting cps
Agencies Adopting CPS
  • The Los Padres National Forest.
  • Ventura County Fire Department.
  • Los Angeles City and County Fire Departments.
  • Sacramento Fire Departments.
  • Tahoe Fire Departments.
  • Nevada Fire Departments

The Campbell Prediction System

agencies adopting cps45
Agencies Adopting CPS
  • Catalunya fire departments in Spain
  • Pike/San Isabel National Forest.
  • Redding Hot Shot Crew.
  • Pleasanton/Livermore Fire Department
  • Elk Grove Fire Department.

The Campbell Prediction System

institutions offering the course
Institutions offering the course
  • State Fire Marshals Academy - Asilomar

40 hours training.

  • Allen Hancock College - Vandenberg USFS South Zone Training Center 16 hours training.
  • Redding Hot Shot Crew, Redding CA.

The Campbell Prediction System

support documents
Support Documents

Course Evaluation

Training Cost

Endorsements

Fuel Temperature

Course outline

Overview

Video Sequence

Student List

The Campbell Prediction System

thank you
WFS/CPS © copyright 2000

Thank You

And be safe out there

Doug & Leanne Campbell