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The human health poverty trap Poor people are at greater risk of ill health and … … poor health increases the likelihood of becoming poor. Establishes a self-perpetuating state that differs from health issue for the rich Is there a natural disaster-poverty trap?

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the human health poverty trap
The human health poverty trap

Poor people are at greater risk of ill health

and…

… poor health increases the likelihood of becoming poor.

Establishes a self-perpetuating state that differs from health issue for the rich

is there a natural disaster poverty trap
Is there a natural disaster-poverty trap?

Poor people are at greater risk of disaster situations

but ……

do disasters increases the likelihood of becoming or remaining poor?

slide4

More likely to result from erratic growth and set backs

creating a “recovery gap”

Disaster events

?

slide6

SST control of Maize

Yield and food security

in Zimbabwe

Climate variability and Malaria riskin Botswana

slide7

Disaster mortality risk from combined hazards

(World Bank Hot Spots: Dilley, Chen, Lerner-Lam et al)

poor country disaster characteristics
Poor country disaster characteristics
  • Large mortality relative to intensity of event, exposure levels and population density
  • Large mortality uncertainty - order of magnitude
  • Gender and age usually play a large roll
  • Economic impact variable
flood disaster economic losses
Flood disaster economic losses

Flood disaster mortality

slide22

Mortality risk is a combination

of physical and social

Vulnerabilities: fragile dwellings

in risky places.

slide24

HIGH RISK

LOW RISK

slide25

Disaster shock moves economy into poverty trap region

Economic Growth

Shock event

in growth zone

moves economy

into zone of

Poverty Trap

PovertyTrap

M*(I): Per capita income as a function of disease prevalence, I.

I*(M): Equilibrium disease prevalence as a function of income, M.

Matthew Bonds Poverty Trap Theory

slide26

Were the people of New Orleans

caught in a disaster-poverty trap?

slide29

Outcomes of Social and Physical Vulnerability

East Orleans

New Orleans

Metairie

(Lower Ninth Ward)

Algiers

Jefferson Parish

St. Bernards Parish

Sources: http://www.katrinadestruction.com/images/v/mapping/Flood+Depth+Estimation.html; http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Levee_and_flood_wall_failure_in_New_Orleans_(following_hurricane_Katrina)

how many died
How many died?

Total “official” deceases victims to date 1698.

But there are very large uncertainties:

  • Who keeps the official count
  • How do you define a Katrina victim?
  • Does it include those who died during or after moving to a different state.
  • There are still approx 500 who remain unaccounted for.
  • Total may be as many as 3000
how do we count who are the victims
How do we count: who are the victims?
  • Traffic accident victims?
  • How should we consider suicides?
  • Should we consider those shot for “looting” and other crimes?
  • Should we include frail people who died from prior conditions long after Katrina (harvesting issue)?
  • How do we count (or even know about) people who died after being displaced from the disaster’s location? People who die from illnesses contracted in refugee camps having been displaced by armed conflict are counted as the victims of conflict. Those who die in FEMA trailer camps are not considered Katrina victims.
slide43

Outcomes of Social and Physical Vulnerability

Sources: http://www.katrinadestruction.com/images/v/mapping/Flood+Depth+Estimation.html; http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Levee_and_flood_wall_failure_in_New_Orleans_(following_hurricane_Katrina)

demographic and geographic selectivity of deceased victims
Demographic and Geographic selectivity of deceased victims

910 deceased victims processed

at St Gabriel Morgue as of Jan 18th, the main receiving center for New Orleans deceased

786 identified with age, gender and race (approx one third the total deceased victims; 124 unidentified)

629 released to families

demographic and geographic selectivity of deceased victims46
Demographic and Geographic selectivity of deceased victims

Gender not a factor 51% male 49% female

Population densityNot a factor: fatality rates not related to pop. density

Racial factor 50% African American 42% Caucasian All other groups less than 4%

` But AA’s were represented > 85% pre-flood

Age played the greatest role:64% older than 60 yrs (15% pre flood)

39% older than 75 yrs

1% less than 5 yrs (one child less than 3yrs)

less than 4% younger than 20 yrs

less than 20% younger than 50 yrs

slide47

Families blame more deaths on Katrina

By MICHELLE ROBERTS, Associated Press Writer Wed Dec 13, 1:56 PM ET

NEW ORLEANS - You won't see Sylvester Major's name among the 1,698 listed officially as Hurricane Katrina victims.

He survived the floodwaters that gushed through the windows and door of his house. He persevered through miserable, fearful days at the convention center. He endured separation from family and the only hometown he had ever known. And he lived more than a year after the Aug. 29, 2005, tragedy.

Officially, he died of congestive heart failure at 59. But his family and a social worker who was with him when he died say the real cause was a broken heart, inflicted by Katrina and the loss of his elderly mother, who also died after being evacuated.

katrinalist columbia edu objective a web based search for all katrina related mortality
Katrinalist.columbia.edu objectiveA web-based search for ALL Katrina-related mortality
  • From direct result of storm – drownings, impact trauma, fire, explosions etc during hurricane impact
  • From indirect causes – traffic accidents, shootings associated with looting or other acts declared criminal, other types of accidents, suicides, increases in crime etc
  • From prior conditions – those who had conditions such as heart disease or respiratory illness and those conditions fatally exacerbated by the trauma of the storm or its aftermath.
  • Include a long (at least a year) harvesting period