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Global Security Issues for Strategic Leaders. 4 Oct 2008. Agenda. Globalization Transnational Security Issues Failing and Failed States Global Hotspots. Global Environment (Forces & Trends) Competing Values Economic Conditions Globalization Information Revolution International Law

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Presentation Transcript
slide2

Agenda

  • Globalization
  • Transnational Security Issues
  • Failing and Failed States
  • Global Hotspots
slide3

Global

Environment

(Forces & Trends)

Competing

Values

Economic Conditions

Globalization

Information Revolution

International

Law

International

Organizations

Non-State

Actors

Threats:

Conventional and

Transnational

WMD

National Purpose

(Enduring Beliefs, Ethics and Values)

  • Domestic
  • Environment
  • (Forces & Trends)
  • Federal system of government
  • Bureaucracy
  • Economic conditions
  • Social needs
  • Electoral politics
  • The media
  • Public opinion
  • National style, self-image
  • Presidential style

National Interests

Strategic Vision

National Policy

National Objectives

(Ends)

Strategic Concepts

(Ways)

National Power

(Means)

Feasibility, Suitability, Acceptability

Risk Assessment

Strategy

global security focus
Global Security Focus
  • 1945 – 1991:
    • Cold War rivalry and relative stability
    • International order of sovereign states and international organizations
  • 1991 – 2001: Post Cold War
    • Missing a strategic focus
    • Entropy in the international order
  • 2001 – present
    • Global War on Terror and preoccupation with “ungoverned spaces” and Iraq
    • Post WWII institutions unsuited to current international challenges
globalization
Globalization

Increasing global connectivity,

integration and interdependence

  • Transnational Actors
  • Transnational Issues
  • Eroding Sovereignty
  • Institutional “Gaps”
  • Positive Effects
  • Negative Effects

Information, ideas, people, products and problems can quickly cross national and regional boundaries

globalization s dark side
Globalization’s Dark Side
  • Drastic disruption of traditional societies
  • Massive population explosion
  • Urbanization
  • Uneven wealth distribution
  • “Anti-system” groups use transportation and communication linkages
global security issues
Global Security Issues
  • Terrorism…Islamic Radicalism
  • WMD Proliferation
  • Conflicts
    • Great power rivalry
    • Interstate confrontation
    • Intrastate conflict
  • Transnational Crime
  • Drug Trafficking
  • Weapons Proliferation
slide9

“Globalization has exposed us to new challenges …

  • Public health challenges like pandemics (HIV/AIDS, avian influenza) that recognize no borders.
  • Illicit trade, whether in drugs, human beings, or sex, that exploits the modern era’s greater ease of transport and exchange.
  • Environmental destruction, whether caused by human behavior or cataclysmic mega-disasters such as floods, hurricanes, earthquakes, or tsunamis.”
  • The National Security Strategy of the United States of America, March 2006
unconventional global security issues
Unconventional Global Security Issues
  • Demography
  • Climate Change
  • Disease
  • Financial Instability
  • Corruption
  • Migration
  • Poverty
  • Resource scarcity:
    • Food
    • Water
    • Energy

- Transnational

- Regional

- Complex

- Interconnected

- Uncertain

- Unpredictable

slide11
800 million are starving

One billion lack clean drinking water

Two billion lack sanitation

Two million are dying from AIDS each year

175 million international migrants

Nearly1 billion illiterate adults

Several billion affected by global warming

slide12
“Climate change can act as a threat multiplier for instability in some of the most volatile regions of the world, and it presents significant national security challenges for the United States.”

- National Security and the Threat of Climate Change, April 2007

climate change

Intervention?

Climate Change
  • Effects:
  • Extreme weather
  • Drought
  • Flooding
  • Sea level rises
  • Retreating Glaciers
  • Habitat Shifts
  • Increased disease

Weak/Failing State

  • Results:
  • Food production declines
  • Diseases increase
  • Clean water becomes scarce
  • Migration in search of resources
  • Internal conflict and spillover
  • Violent Religious Extremism
  • Movement away from liberal democracy
  • Radical ideologies
  • Humanitarian crisis
slide14

“America is now threatened less by conquering states than we are by failing ones.”

2002 National Security Strategy

of the United States

slide15

Failed/Failing State:

A Definition

When state structures lack political will and/or capacity to provide the basic functions needed for poverty reduction, development and to safeguard the security and human rights of their populations

When the state and civil society are unable to engage in constructive interactions leading to deficits in effectiveness, legitimacy or both

failed failing and recovering fragile state
Failed / Failing and Recovering (Fragile) State:
  • Rampant corruption stymies domestic investment and growth
  • Ungoverned, lawless regions where predation is normal
  • The elite systematically exclude other groups, thus creating grievances
  • Reliant on international actors to provide basic services
slide17

“…The recent past vividly demonstrated the consequences of failing adequately to address the dangers posed by insurgencies and failing states. Terrorist networks can find a sanctuary within the borders of a weak nation and strength within the chaos of social breakdown. A nuclear-armed state could collapse into chaos, and criminality. Let’s be honest with ourselves. The most likely catastrophic threats to our homeland – for example, an American city poisoned or reduced to rubble by a terrorist attack – are more likely to emanate from failing states than from aggressor states.

Robert M. Gates, 29 September 2008

so a state is fragile so what
So A State is Fragile: So What?
  • Fragile states are 15 times more prone to civil war than developed countries
  • Violence is more extreme, lasts longer and frequently “spills-over”
  • Overwhelming source of the world’s refugees and internally displaced persons
  • Many fragile states are among the world’s worst abusers of human rights

Think about the consequences of the failure of a nuclear armed state…

slide19
Fragile states provide benefits to terrorist and criminal organizations such as:
  • safe havens
  • conflict experience
  • settings for training and indoctrination
  • access to weapons and equipment
  • financial resources
  • staging grounds and transit zones
  • targets for operations
  • pools of recruits
slide20
"Weak and failing states serve as global pathways that facilitate the spread of pandemics, the movement of criminals and terrorists, and the proliferation of the world's most dangerous weapons."

-Condoleezza Rice, 2006

slide21

6. DRC

7. Afghanistan

8. Ivory Coast

9. Pakistan

10. CAR

1. Somalia

2. Sudan

3. Zimbabwe

4. Chad

5. Iraq

11. Guinea

12. Bangladesh

13. Burma

14. Haiti

15. North Korea

16. Ethiopia

17. Uganda

18. Lebanon

19. Nigeria

20. Sri Lanka

africa
Africa
  • 26 of the world’s 30 poorest countries
  • Many countries lack adequate governance
  • Epicenter of the world’s most serious health

pandemic: HIV/AIDS.

  • 7 of the top 10 countries at risk of collapse (Failed States Index):
    • Somalia, Sudan, Zimbabwe, Chad, Democratic Republic of Congo, Côte d’Ivoire, Central African Republic,
  • Somalia: failed state
  • Sudan (Darfur)
  • Zimbabwe
  • Nigerian oil fields
  • Kenya: Dec 2007 contested election
  • Impact of China’s involvement
the americas
The Americas
  • Drugs, Gangs, Corruption, Poverty
  • The Andean Ridge:
    • Drug producing region:, (Venezuela, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru, and Bolivia) a major source of cocaine and heroin, with lingering insurgencies, weak economies, and unstable democracies
  • Central America, Caribbean and Mexico:
    • Drug Transit zone with gangs, violence and corruption
  • Tri-border area of Argentina, Brazil, and Paraguay - contains a large ethnic Arab population and may be a haven for Al Qaeda fund raising cells as well as other Middle Eastern terrorist groups
  • Politics: Failure of Conservatives to solve problems of poverty was catalyst for a (re)turn to the left
    • Populist leaders in Venezuela, Bolivia, Ecuador, and Nicaragua
  • Cuba after Fidel?
  • China has begun to court energy-rich

Latin America

slide28
Asia
  • The Asian Century – a shift in the global

balance of power?

    • Emerging Superpowers: China and India
  • Nuclear North Korea
  • Taiwan Security
  • Afghanistan – “I’m not convinced we’re

winning in Afghanistan, I’m convinced

we can.”

    • Elections in 2009
  • Pakistan – The perfect storm: weak government, nuclear weapons, radical Islamic extremists and terrorists (Al Qaeda), sectarian conflict, Taliban insurgents, a vast ungoverned tribal region, Kashmir
  • Sri Lanka
europe
Europe
  • “Old Europe” or “Venus?”
  • Anti-Americanism
  • NATO in Afghanistan
  • European Union: has it lost it’s way?
  • Immigration challenges
  • Economically stagnant
middle east
Middle East
  • Iran – the next nuclear power?
    • Elections in 2009
  • Arab-Israeli conflict: two state solution?
  • Iraq –
  • Radical Islamic extremism – “the transcendent challenge of the 21st century?”
  • Sectarian conflict
russia eurasia
Russia-Eurasia
  • Retreat from democracy
  • Energy windfall has fueled Russia’s economic revitalization
  • Bully in its own neighborhood
  • Georgia and beyond
global security
Global Security

Transnational

Crime

Hostile

Russia

Anti-Americanism

Homeland

Security

Ethnic

Conflict

WMD

Proliferation

Energy

Security

Terrorism

Corruption

Emerging

China

Violent

Islamism

Migration

Climate

Change

Jihad

Genocide

Disease

Illicit

Drug Trade

Failed &

Failing States

Illicit

Arms Trade

Resource

Scarcity

Illicit

Human

Trafficking

Youth

Bulge

HIV/AIDS

Poverty

slide33
If we are to meet the myriad challenges around the world in the coming decades, this country must strengthen other important elements of national power, both institutionally and financially, and create the capability to integrate and apply all the elements of national power to problems and challenges abroad.

Robert M. Gates, 26 November 2007

“Many of the problems we face – from the threat of pandemic disease, to proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, to terrorism, to human trafficking, to natural disasters – reach across borders. Effective multinational efforts are essential to solve these problems.”

The National Security Strategy of the United States of America, March 2006

publications
Publications

Financial Times

NY Times

Washington Post

LA Times

BBC News

Reuters

CNN and or Fox News

Christian Science Monitor

Council on Foreign Relations

My Yahoo

Bloglines

Newsgator

Pluck

Windows Live Alerts

Netvibes

Google

links and rss feeds
Links and RSS feeds

Military Education Research Library Network (NDU) http://merln.ndu.edu/

International Crisis Group http://www.crisisgroup.org

Center for Strategic and International Studies http://www.csis.org

Foreign Policy Research Institute http://www.fpri.org/

Brookings Institution

U.S. State Department http://www.state.gov/

CIA World Factbook https://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/

U.S. Institute of Peace http://www.usip.org/

Rand Corporation http://www.rand.org/

Progressive Policy Institute http://www.ppionline.org/

The Ohio State University's Program for International and Homeland Security

http://homelandsecurity.osu.edu/

Latin America Network Information Center http://lanic.utexas.edu/las.html

Carnegie Endowment for International Peace http://www.carnegieendowment.org/topic/

The Fund for Peace http://www.fundforpeace.org

John F. Kennedy School of Government http://www.ksg.harvard.edu/

International Institute for Counterterrorism http://www.ict.org.il/

Combating Terrorism Center at West Point http://www.ctc.usma.edu/default.asp

Center for Non-proliferation Studies http://cns.miis.edu/

Center for International Development at Harvard University http://www.cid.harvard.edu/

Carnegie Council http://www.cceia.org/

Hoover Institution Stanford University http://www.hoover.org/

Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation http://www-igcc.ucsd.edu/

slide37
My contact information
  • dean.stodter@us.army.mil
  • (717) 245-4232
  • Department of Distance Education, US Army War College
conflict equation
Conflict Equation

+

+

=

Violent Conflict

Conflict

Resources

Failing

state

Triggers

conflict resources
Conflict Resources

Factors that transform general grievance into conflict threat:

  • Leadership/authority
  • Ideology/religious doctrine
  • Organizational capacity
  • Technical skills
    • Military
    • Informational
  • Financing
  • Access to weapons
  • Safe havens: local and international
triggers
Triggers

Situational vulnerabilities

  • Temporal: Windows of vulnerability
    • Elections
    • Passage of legislation
    • Ruling in a court case
    • Holidays
  • Geographic: Locations of vulnerability
    • Contested regions
    • Symbolic significance