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Land Use and human-enviroment interactions in Amazonia

FAPESP 50 Years Symposium, 2011. Land Use and human-enviroment interactions in Amazonia. Gilberto Câmara National Institute for Space Research (INPE). E nergy. Agriculture. Ecosystems. Space technology adds value to Brazil´s natural knowledge economy. Megacities. Climate change.

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Land Use and human-enviroment interactions in Amazonia

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  1. FAPESP 50 Years Symposium, 2011 Land Use and human-enviroment interactions in Amazonia Gilberto Câmara NationalInstitute for Space Research (INPE)

  2. Energy Agriculture Ecosystems Space technology adds value to Brazil´s natural knowledge economy Megacities Climate change Weather and natural disasters

  3. World Research Centers: Impact and Visibility INPE: only Brazilian institute in top 40 Source: Cybermetrics Lab, Spain

  4. Nature, 29 July 2010

  5. ICSU “Grand challenges” Improve the usefulness of forecasts of future environmental conditions and their consequences for people. Develop, enhance and integrate the observation systems needed to manage global and regional environmental change. Determine what institutional, economic and behavioural changes can enable effective steps toward global sustainability.

  6. ICSU “Grand challenges”: a bit of ancient wisdom Be careful what you wish for….

  7. The challenge: reducing deforestation

  8. Impact of land change in Brazil’s emissions

  9. Earth observation satellites are essential for measuring land change Medium-resolution (5-50 m) earth observation satellites data are global public goods

  10. T1 – Selective logging T2 – Loss of smaller trees T3 – Loss >50% of forest T4 – Loss >90% of forest How does deforestation happen?

  11. INPE’s Monitoring Systems dialydeforestationalerts time Yearly rates ofclearcuts Floresta

  12. Real-time Deforestation Monitoring Daily warnings of newly deforested large areas

  13. Result: major reduction in deforestation Markets? Credit crunch? Coercion? Institutional arrangments?

  14. Markets have a positive rôle

  15. Policing actions: illegal wood seizure 50% ofoperations in 2% ofthearea

  16. Transparency builds governance! CBERS image Deforestation Degradation Science (27 April 2007): “Brazil´s monitoring system is the envy of the world”.

  17. Keep watching! Jan-April/2011: 126% increase

  18. Deforestation hotspots: March-May 2011

  19. Deforestation hotspots: June-August 2011

  20. “By 2020, Brazil will reduce deforestation by 80% relative to 2005.” (pres. Lula in Copenhagen COP-15)

  21. Market impactofdeforestationreduction in Brazil Avoided def Brazil 2005-2020 EU-15 reduction 2005-2020 20% of 1990 levels 4,9 Gt CO2eq 7,7 Gt CO2eq From 2005 to 2020, avoided deforestation by Brazil would be 2/3 of the total proposed EU-15 cuts

  22. What happened with 720.000 km2 deforested? Firstmapofland use andland cover ofAmazonia

  23. Agriculture (grains)

  24. Cleared pasture

  25. Degraded land

  26. Prediction? The Brazilian Amazon has different institutional arrangements that influence the spatial and temporal patterns of deforestation.

  27. Governing the commons:institutional arrangments [Ostrom, Science, 2005]

  28. Institutional analysis in Amazonia Identifydifferentagentsandtry to modeltheiractions Land changepatterns Field work Land changemodels Urban networks

  29. Current situation in Amazonia Tension between different ways of access to market and natural resources, land tenure regimes (private and public/collective) and political forces. Araújo e Aguiar (forthcoming)

  30. FRENTE MEIO RETAGUARDA Forest River Not Forest Deforest Landscape model: different rules of behavior at different partitions which also change in time SÃO FÉLIX DO XINGU - 2006 FRONT MIDDLE BACK

  31. Full and open access to space-based information is indispensable for global sustainable development

  32. “A few satellites can cover the entire globe, but there needs to be a system in place to ensure their images are readily available to everyone who needs them. Brazil has set an important precedent by making its Earth-observation data available, and the rest of the world should follow suit.”

  33. RIO-92 Declaration – principle #10 Environmental issues are best handled with participation of all citizens. Each individual shall have appropriate access to information concerning the environment.

  34. RIO + 20: bulding on principles from RIO-92 We need a new convention on the public availability of environmental information

  35. Thanks to INPE’s team • Deforestation and land cover monitoring: Dalton Valeriano, Claudio Almeida, Luiz Maurano, Isabel Escada, Silvana Amaral, Mauricio Silva • Land change modelling and institutional analysis: Ana Paula Aguiar, Roberto Araújo, Pedro Andrade, Luciana Soler, Talita Assis, Sérgio Costa, Patrícia Pinho

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