Energy Research Institute (ERI) National Development & Reform Commission Dr. Kang Yanbing

1. Energy Efficiency: Recent Experience in China, and Application of LEAP to Modeling Energy Efficiency Strategies Energy Research Institute (ERI) National Development & Reform Commission Dr. Kang Yanbing kangyanbing@eri.org.cn May.14, 2005 for AES 2005

2. About ERI • The national-level researching agency in the field of energy issues in China. • Researching fields • Energy efficiency (BeCON--Beijing Energy Efficiency Center) • Energy economic (strategy) • Energy environment • Renewable energy • Role • Provide policy recommendations for Chinese government • Provide consultation for companies and other agencies

3. Outline • Energy issues in China • Characteristics of LEAP model • Applications of LEAP model in China • Model scheme • Scenario design consideration • Main conclusion of previous researches

4. Energy Issues in China • Largest developing country: population and economy • Rapid growth rate of GDP • Rank the second in energy consumption • Second largest emitter

5. Energy situation in 2004 • GDP：13651.5Billion Yuan • Yield of steel：273Mt (128.5 in 2000) • Yield of cement：970 Mt (597in 2000) • Yield of vehicle ：5.074 Million • Yield of air conditioner：66.4622 Million • Yield of refrigerator：30.3338 Million • Energy production：1846Mtce consumption：1970 Mtce • Coal production：1956Mt consumption ：1870 Mt • Oil production：175Mt consumption ：290 Mt • NG consumption：41.5Billion m3 • Electricity generation ：2187 TWh • Power capacity：435 GW • Net oil import：144 Mt • Black-out：26 provinces (summer)；21 provinces (winter)

6. China’s developing goal • In 2020, building all-round well-off society • Quadruple the GDP of the year 2000 by 2020 • Per-capita GDP reach 3000 US$ • Urbanization rate will be increased to 57%~ 60% by 2020 • Much more challenges of energy issues in the future • Necessity of sustainable approaches of development • Many uncertainties in future development • Energy Strategy and Energy Efficiency Priority

7. Characteristics of LEAP Model • Energy system analysis model: • LEAP, MARKERL, AIM… • Why select LEAP? • Future uncertainties in China • Predict and scenario analysis • Policy select analysis • Easy operation • Intuitionistic and friendly interface • Endless sector & technology division • …

8. Application of LEAP Model • Scenario analysis on China’s long-term sustainable energy development and carbon emission.A project sponsored by Energy Foundation and Shell Foundation • Analysis on China’s energy consumption to fulfill the long-term goal of Chinese government.A project cooperating with Energy Foundation and National State Department development center • Study on sustainable development energy strategy.Chinese government project

9. Application of LEAP Model • Study on the influence of the policy and technical improvement of building energy efficiency on China’s future energy demand.NDRC fundamental project • Study on the influence of lifestyle change on China’s future energy demand.NDRC key project • Study on China’s CHP developing plan. Chinese government project • Study on building energy efficiency incentive policies in China.Sponsored by Energy Foundation • ……

10. Achievements of LEAP Model • Provide support for “China’s Energy Developing Strategy” • Provide support for “China’s Medium and Long Term Energy Developing Plan” • Provide support for “China’s Medium and Long Term Energy Conservation Plan” • Provide support for “China’s Medium and Long Term CHP Developing Plan” • NDRC 2nd-class Awards • Promote domestic and international cooperation on China’s energy issue

11. Achievements of LEAP Model • Improvement of LEAP • Always improvements of the LEAP Model • Has obtained related support to improve the current LEAP • Period • Base year: 1998, 2000, 2004 • End year: 2020, 2030, 2050, 2100 • Make each sector, technology more reasonable and useful for different purpose

12. Model Scheme • Major module End-use Transformation Final energy Primary energy

13. Petro& Chem. Glass Iron&Steel Brick&tile Bldg. material Cement Agric. Chemical Pottery Papermaking Lime Industry Industry Mining Nonferrous Other Other Transport Constr. Building Model Scheme • Division of End-use Sectors Industry Sub-sector Product TFC

14. Industry Sub-sector Product Process TFC Vertical Kiln Kiln with precalcinator Coal Rotary kiln Kiln with pre-heater Oil Wet kiln Gas Kiln with waste heat boiler Heat Long dry kiln Power Semi-dry kiln Model Scheme • Division of End-use Sectors

15. Fig.2 Influencing factors on building energy consumption Building Energy Efficiency

16. Building Energy Efficiency 严寒 Severe Cold Severe Cold 严寒 Severe Cold 寒冷 Cold 夏热冬冷 Hot Summer Cold Winter 寒冷 Cold Temperate 温和 夏热冬暖 Hot Summer Warm Winter

17. Building Energy Efficiency Fig. 3 Schemetic chart of building energy consuming facilities

18. Building Energy Efficiency

19. Model Scheme • Sketch of LEAP model

20. Methodology • Scenario design • Based on bottom-up, combined with up-down • Full scale sector division nationwide

21. Scenario Design consideration • Macro parameters • GDP, population, urbanization rate • Activity level • Yield of industrial products: steel&iron, cement, car, building…… • Product for using-stage: car, building area, household appliances…… • Technical analysis (Energy technology) • Fuel mix • Energy efficiency • Energy & environmental policy, technical improvements • Development of domestic & international market

22. Main conclusion of previous researches • China’s future energy demand is huge • In 2020, TPE: 3000~3200 Mtce (3600 Mtce) • Coal: 2500~3000 Mt • Oil: 65%~70% import • NG: 40% import • Power capacity: 900~1000 GW • Hydro: 80GW(2002) 250 GW (2020) • Nuclear:40GW(2000) 400 GW (2020) • GHG: • In 2020, 1500 Mt-C, about twice of that in 2000 • Energy mix optimization, Coal-based • 3 sectors

23. Main conclusion of previous researches • Reasonable energy policy may cut down future energy demand effectively • May cut down over 1000 Mtce (It is possible to quadrupling GDP with double energy consumption in 2020, but lots of energy polices should be implemented well) • Energy policy • Energy fuel optimization • Larger industry scale • Technical improvements • New type industrialization road (Industrial structure adjustment) • Energy efficiency standards • Energy efficiency labeling • Energy efficiency mechanism based on market • Renewable energy • Energy price • Environmental policy • ……

24. Sensitive analysis • Influence of metering heating mechanism

25. Sensitive analysis • Influence of air conditioning energy efficiency technologies • In 2020 • Cut down 90 GW power capacity • 5 Tree-gorge hydro power station • 10% of nationwide power capacity

26. Sensitive analysis • Influence of fuel economic standard for cars Without standard With standard

27. Sensitive analysis • Influence of consuming pattern and lifestyle • In 2020, per-capita living area: 40 m2(S1), 30 m2(S_ba)

28. Conclusion • In order to fulfill the developing goal of Chinese government, huge energy consumption will be needed to support the development of social and economic. • Only if the per-capita energy consumption of China reach the current Japan level, about half of the current total energy consumption in the world will be used in China. • Energy security • Related environment impact. • Regional environment • Global Climate Change (GHG) • China’s energy issue is not only the challenge for China, but also for the world

29. Conclusion • Chinese Government must select a sustainable developing pathway (with the assistance from the world) • Energy system analysis and energy policy analysis based on LEAP may make more contribution to help Chinese government solve the energy challenges.

30. 谢谢 ! Thank You!