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Assessing confidence and communicating meaning: The experience of the LWEC Climate Change Impact Report Cards Mike Morecroft. LWEC Climate Change Impacts Report Card for Biodiversity and ecosystems. Accessible high level summary Underpinned by peer reviewed reviews

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slide1

Assessing confidence and communicating meaning:

The experience of the LWEC Climate Change Impact Report Cards

Mike Morecroft

lwec climate change impacts report card for biodiversity and ecosystems
LWEC Climate Change Impacts Report Card for Biodiversity and ecosystems

Accessible high level summary

Underpinned by peer reviewed reviews

Consensus of research community

One of a series of climate change impacts report cards covering different sectors

slide6

LWEC Climate Change Impacts Report Card for Biodiversity

Peer review:

Independent group

Peer review:

Working group

Peer review:

Review authors

evidence on climate change impacts
Evidence on climate change impacts

Monitoring and survey

Experiment

Theory

Modelling

indicators

assessing confidence
Assessing confidence

agreement

Overall confidence

Amount of evidence

Over the last century the directions of change in range margins of many animal species are consistent with recorded increases in temperature. H

lessons for indicators
Lessons for indicators

Consensus of scientific community

Peer review

Traceability to primary research / monitoring

Assessment of confidence / uncertainty

Indicators are part of a larger evidence base

Qualitative assessments can be valuable as well as quantitative

Text can be powerful

Communication matters

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There is strong evidence that climate change is already affecting UK biodiversity. Impacts are expected to increase as the magnitude of climate change increases.