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U.S. EPA: NCEA/Global Change Research Program. Changing Climate and Land Use in the Mid-Atlantic: Modeling Drivers and Consequences in Economics, Hydrology, Geomorphology, and Ecology – Initial Remarks. Glenn E. Moglen University of Maryland November 12, 2002. What is a Stakeholder?.

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slide1
U.S. EPA: NCEA/Global Change Research Program

Changing Climate and Land Use in the Mid-Atlantic: Modeling Drivers and Consequences in Economics, Hydrology, Geomorphology, and Ecology – Initial Remarks

Glenn E. Moglen

University of Maryland

November 12, 2002

slide2
What is a Stakeholder?
  • A stakeholder is any person, group, or entity with an active interest in some element of our study.
  • Stakeholders in the room are from:
    • Federal, State, and Local Government
    • Environmental Conservation Organizations
    • Concerned Citizens
    • Academics
slide3
What is our purpose today?
  • Three Goals:
    • Provide brief overview of our project and plans.
    • Solicit immediate feedback from those in the room.
    • Develop a “communications document” that will describe the way that we will disseminate information to you as the project progresses
slide5
U.S. EPA: NCEA/Global Change Research Program

Changing Climate and Land Use in the Mid-Atlantic: Modeling Drivers and Consequences in Economics, Hydrology, Geomorphology, and Ecology – An Overview

PI: Moglen

Co-PI’s: Palmer, Bockstael, Pizzuto

November 12, 2002 – University of Maryland

slide6
Context: Four Projects…
  • EPA STAR Water & Watersheds project: our first project as a group, focused on predicting and quantifying impacts of urbanization.
  • EPA NCEA/GCRP problem formulation report: preliminary investigation of climate and land use change effects.
  • EPA NCEA/GCRP Effects of Jointly Changing Climate and Land Use 1: “This Project”, focuses on model development of interactive effects of simultaneous land use and climate change.
  • EPA STAR ProposalEffects of Jointly Changing Climate and Land Use 2: focuses on model production, predicting ecological impacts of the interactive effects of stress from land use and climate change.
slide7
LU/LC Imagery

MD Office of Planning

MoCo Dept Env Protection

RESAC, NASA

EPA STAR Water & Watersheds Project: June 2000 - May 2004

PI: Palmer Co-PI’s :Moglen, Bockstael, Pizzuto

Hydrology

Requires expertise from multiple fields

– academic and agency partners

Geomorphology

Economics

Ecology

Funding

EPA’s Star Program

NCEAS

Policy & Planning

State & County Gov’t

Watershed Managers

Stakeholders

Mathematical & Computer Modeling

Requires partners from national, state, local, and private sectors

slide8
EPA STAR Water & Watersheds Project

Hydrology

Geomorphology

University of Maryland

Margaret A. Palmer

Glenn E. Moglen

Nancy E. Bockstael

Economics

Ecology

GIS,

Policy &

Planning

Colorado State University

LeRoy Poff

Montgomery County Department of Environmental Protection

Cameron Wiegand

Keith Van Ness

Dan Harper

Lonnie Darr

University of Delaware

Jim Pizzuto

slide9
Economics/

Land Use Change

Irrigation

Sediment regime

Increase in

Channel form

impervious

surfaces

Geomorphology

Hydrology

Light levels

Peak flow

Riparian Vegetation

Particle size

Base flow

Suspended sediments

Channel form

Flow variability

Nutrient regimes

Bed mobility

Water quality

Ecology

slide10
EPA STAR Water & Watersheds Project: Some Goals

Cattail

  • Test hypotheses about effects of new growth control policies
  • Develop a method to estimate peak flows at high spatial and temporal resolution
  • Develop a numerical model forecasting effects of land use changes, including time-varying changes in channel width, … and sediment transport
  • Develop statistical relationships between land use change and ecosystem structure and function

Howard County

Hawlings

Northwest Branch

Paint Branch

Montgomery County

slide11
EPA NCEA/GCRP Problem Formulation Report
  • PI: Moglen, Co-PI: Palmer
  • Duration: January 2001 – July 2002
  • Some Goals:
    • Investigate how land use and climate change drivers affect streamflow distributions in study watersheds
    • Forecast ecological effects of climate change and land use change using simulations with Aquatox
slide13
EPA NCEA/GCRP Problem Formulation Report – Ecological Consequences
  • Ammonia, nitrate, and phosphate more stronglyaffected by land use than future climate
    • higher means and higher annual variability
    • predictions about climate change depended on the climate change model assumed.
  • Oxygen most strongly affected by climate change.
    • Oxygen levels decreased under all climate change
  • Organic matter most strongly affected by land use
    • Organic matter inputs decreased due mostly to decreases in riparian vegetation
slide14
EPA NCEA/GCRP – Current Project (or why you’re here!)
  • PI: Moglen

Co-PI’s: Bockstael, Palmer & Nelson, Pizzuto

  • Duration: August 2002 – December 2003
  • Some Goals: “Model Development”
    • Develop methods to translate probabilistic economic predictions into input for other disciplines including plausible 20-50 year land use change scenarios
    • Modify continuous flow model to be sensitive to dynamically changing land use as well as climate inputs
    • Develop methodology for forecasting sediment delivery to 1st order streams
    • Develop spatial habitat suitability model for one species
slide15
EPA STAR Proposal
  • PI: Palmer

Co-PI’s: Bockstael, Moglen, Nelson, Pizzuto, Tuchman

  • Duration: Sept. 2003 – Sept. 2006
  • Some Goals: “Model Production”
    • Generate land use change forecasts taking account of likely policy responses to climate change and sea level rise
    • Use hydrologic models to describe future flow regimes under varying land use and climate change scenarios
    • Use calibrated models … to provide parameters needed to forecast the influence of climate and land use change on ecological services
    • Parameterize and test models using two multifactorial experiments with temperature, flow, UV, N:P and CO2 as factors.
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