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2010 - FLAX WHAT NOW?. Weber Commodities January 11, 2010 Saskatoon, SK. Agenda. 2009 2010 Trade Issues Weather Outside Influences. Best sell signal – EVER! . 2009 – FLAX A Look Back . What a ride! $20.00 Flax in 2008 Naysayers fall silent.

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2010 flax what now

2010 - FLAX WHAT NOW?

Weber Commodities

January 11, 2010

Saskatoon, SK

agenda
Agenda
  • 2009
  • 2010
  • Trade Issues
  • Weather
  • Outside Influences
2009 flax a look back
2009 – FLAX A Look Back
  • What a ride!
  • $20.00 Flax in 2008
  • Naysayers fall silent.
  • Good yields – Good prices – How can anything go wrong?
  • What…Me Worry?
flax 2009 10 crop year
Flax – 2009/10 Crop Year
  • Acres up 151,000 to 1.709 million
  • Carryout to 550,000 MT versus 227,000 last year
  • Low Carryout was in 1997/98 at 41,000 MT
  • High Carryout was in 1982/83 at 465,000 MT
flax 09 10 crop year
Flax – 09/10 Crop Year
  • Production increase of 8% from last year to 930,000 MT
  • Exports to decrease 150,000 to 450,000 MT
  • Avg. price to decease from $500.00 last year to $300.00 - $400.00 this year
marketing your flax
Marketing Your Flax
  • Flax is one of the few grains we can affect as a country
  • Will never divorce too far from the oilseed complex – yet
  • Better chance affecting the flaxseed market than we will the canola market against 125 MMT of South American beans
flax exports
Flax Exports
  • World production: 2 and 3 MMT since the 1930’s
  • Canada has a 40% share of world production
  • 80% share of exports
  • China, United States, India and the FSU largest production areas after Canada
flax exports deliveries
Flax Exports/Deliveries
  • Exports to Jan. 03/10 – 196,300
  • Exports last year 01/03 329,900
  • Deliveries to Jan. 03/10 – 290,300
  • Deliveries last yr 01/03 - 250,200
external issues 2009 10
External Issues 2009/10
  • 1) Tree Huggers
  • 2) Trade
  • 3) EU
  • 4) Japan
just the flax
Just the Flax!
  • One year Flax marketing program to help farmers
  • Supply/Demand = Price
  • Price comparisons
  • Imports/Exports
  • Stocks to Use ratios
  • Weather
  • Better marketing decisions
2010 el nino
2010 –El Nino?

CDN Effect

Winter Temps

> normal

Rain south #1

< normal

Snow cover less than normal

economic turmoil
Economic Turmoil

"The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants."

Thomas Jefferson

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