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First Nuclear Age, 1945-90s

First Nuclear Age, 1945-90s. Second Nuclear Age, 1990s to present. Multipolarity asymmetry Deterrence missile defense Arms Control coercion Rationality. Bipolarity balance Deterrence vulnerability Arms Control Managing rivalry Rationality. Second Nuclear Age, 1990s to present.

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First Nuclear Age, 1945-90s

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  1. First Nuclear Age, 1945-90s Second Nuclear Age, 1990s to present Multipolarity asymmetry Deterrence missile defense Arms Control coercion Rationality • Bipolarity • balance • Deterrence • vulnerability • Arms Control • Managing rivalry • Rationality

  2. Second Nuclear Age, 1990s to present • Multipolarity • asymmetry • Deterrence • missile defense • Arms Control • coercion • Rationality

  3. 1. Multipolarity More players in the game Several levels of relationships Almost all are asymmetric • Strategic Level • Regional Level • Terrorism?

  4. A. Strategic level US and Russia: rough equality • Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty (SORT) 2002 • New START Treaty 2010

  5. Strategic Level • Chinese nuclear capability • Chinese nuclear doctrine • US Annual Report on Chinese Military Power

  6. Chinese MRBM and ICBM Rangesfrom US Report on Chinese Military Power, p. 82

  7. B. Regional Level • South Asia • Middle East • East Asia

  8. South Asia

  9. India Missile Ranges

  10. Pakistani Missile Ranges

  11. The Problems? • North Korea: Three nuclear tests • October 9, 2006 • May 25, 2009 • February 12, 2013 • Iran: No tests yet, but • 2007 US National Intelligence Estimate • 2013 IAEA Report • 2013 BBC Analysis

  12. C. Terrorism? • AQAM • US Invasion of Iraq 2003 • Coup in Pakistan • Iranian allies: Hezbollah?

  13. 2. Deterrence Three Modifications to Cold War Deterrence Dealing with the regional threat • Missile Defense • Prompt Global Strike • Use of Nuclear Weapons against Non-Nuclear States

  14. Strategic Defense Initiative: Reagan’s SDI speech, March 23, 1983 A. Missile Defense

  15. NMD: Deterrence by Denial National Missile Defense Act of 1999 • US Missile Defense Agency • The missile defense system • NMD test videos • BMD Review 2010

  16. GW Bush and Obama

  17. B. Prompt Global Strike GW Bush Nuclear Posture Review 2001 • Summary Obama Nuclear Posture Review 2010 • US Strategic Command: JFCC Global Strike • Amy F. Woolf, “Conventional Prompt Global Strike and Long-Range Ballistic Missiles: Background and Issues.” Congressional Research Service. April 26, 2013

  18. Why Conventional PGS? • Speed • Vulnerability of forward bases • Preemption • Option to stay below nuclear threshold

  19. C. Use of Nuclear Weapons against Non-Nuclear States

  20. 3. Arms Control Strategic Arms Control: • US and Russia • Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty (SORT) 2002 • New START Treaty 2010 • US and China: nothing

  21. Regional Powers? • Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty 1968 (1970) • International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)

  22. Problems? Never Signed NPT • Israel • India • Pakistan Violated Treaty Provisions • Iraq • Iran • North Korea

  23. Coercion, Sanctions, Talks North Korea • Six Party Talks • UNSC Resolution 1718 (2006) Iran • P5 + 1 Talks • UNSC Resolution 1929 (2010)

  24. Missile Technology Control Regime

  25. 4. Rationality • If leaders of these states are rational… • Extortion is their policy • If leaders of these states are irrational… • How do we deal with them?

  26. Larger Question Does Deterrence Work? GW Bush answer

  27. Terrorists Rationality? • Hamas or AQAM? • Rationality of groups that use suicide bombing?

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