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Comparing 1-Tier vs 2-Tier MME Forecasts Against Observed SSTs for FMA 2012

This report analyzes the preliminary verification results of 1-tier and 2-tier Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) SST forecasts against observed sea surface temperatures for May 17, 2012. It covers correlation metrics, including map average and climate average correlations, alongside forecast performance indicators such as Relative Probability Skill Score (RPSS), Rate of Return, Heidke skill, and Gross Reliability Constraint (GROC). The focus is on the verification of temperature and precipitation tercile categories for the FMA 2012 forecast, providing insights into model efficacy.

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Comparing 1-Tier vs 2-Tier MME Forecasts Against Observed SSTs for FMA 2012

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  1. Preliminary Verification 1-tier vs. 2-tier MME Forecast against Observed May 17, 2012

  2. SST forecast and Obs for FMA 2012 Correlation (w.r.t. map average) G0.32 (0.44) T0.41 (0.42) Uncentered Correlation (w.r.t. clim average): G0.32 (0.41) T0.29 (0.33) || || 1-tier 2-tier FMA 2012 SST Forecast from Jan FMA 2012 SST Obs anom (deg C)

  3. Verification: G: globe T: tropics RPSS: G -0.152 (-0.083) T -0.191 (-0.116) Rate of Return: G -0.088 (-0.043) T -0.089 (-0.044) Heidke skill: G -0.088 (-0.058) T -0.094 (-0.046) GROC: G 0.546 (0.551) T 0.635 (0.612) FMA 2012 temp tercile categ OBS FMA 2012 temp 1-tiered Forecast from Jan

  4. Verification: G: globe T: tropics RPSS: G 0.021 (0.004) T 0.047 (0.012) Rate of Return: G 0.017 (0.003) T 0.042 (0.015) Heidke skill: G 0.113 (0.046) T 0.191 (0.074) GROC: G 0.567 (0.529) T 0.606 (0.550) FMA 2012 precip tercile categ OBS FMA 2012 precip 1-tiered Forecast from Jan

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