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Clay County Republican Executive Committee Presentation. March 25, 2013 The Ground Game. It was this Close - 0.145% Shift would have meant a different outcome. Who are you?. Do you have an email account? Do you have a Facebook page? Do you have a Twitter account?

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clay county republican executive committee presentation

Clay County Republican Executive Committee Presentation

March 25, 2013

The Ground Game

John Libby - President -American Public Dialogue

it was this close 0 145 shift would have meant a different outcome
It was this Close - 0.145% Shift would have meant a different outcome.

John Libby - President -American Public Dialogue

who are you
Who are you?
  • Do you have an email account?
  • Do you have a Facebook page?
  • Do you have a Twitter account?
  • Did you have an ESPN Fantasy Football team?
  • Do you watch “The Simpsons” reruns on weeknights?
  • Are you a “None”?

John Libby - President -American Public Dialogue

slide4

“Additionally, the Romney team objectively failed to put on a decent ground game and the supposedly supplemental ground game from outside groups was ephemeral. In 2008, one of the smartest things Barack Obama did was keep his staff in Chicago and use his team, not the Democrats’ usual hucksters.

As long as the GOP keeps relying on the usual hucksters, charlatans, and con artists it’ll keep getting the same results.” Erick Erickson – Red State”

John Libby - President -American Public Dialogue

what was the difference between the two campaigns

What was the difference between the two campaigns?

In the four key states: 272 Obama Field Offices versus 118 for Romney.

In the 14 swing states there were 631 field offices compared to 262 for Romney. In September Obama added 46 new offices compared to zero for Romney. Source: The Daily Kos

The “Cave” versus outside vendors. Centralized real time national data base versus different outside data bases with old data. It is estimated that at least 40% of the phone numbers provided by the vendor in Florida were disconnected or the wrong number.

John Libby - President -American Public Dialogue

slide6

A Google search of campaign headquarters yielded several hundred for the Obama campaign and one for Romney.

  • Obama campaign expanded its social media network to include applications such as Facebook, Twitter, Flickr, Google +, Instagram, mobileapp, RSS, SMS, Penterest, Spotify, Storify, Tumbir, Reddit, You Tube and more. Romney was on Facebook and Twitter.
  • As of late August, the Obama campaign had collected 147 percent more voter registration forms than in 2008; it had made 234 percent more phone calls and door knocks; it had held 171 percent more "conversations."
  • "What impressed me [was] the pace of volunteers, calls, voter registration is dramatically larger than it was four years ago," said Durbin. "A lot of people who think this is not going to be the same effort are wrong."

John Libby - President -American Public Dialogue

slide7

Data was continuously updated in the Chicago Cave’s Database. As an example the campaign imputed over 36,000 interviews in Ohio alone. This gave the campaign the ability to better understand the electorate and develop metrics of likely supporters. If they were not registered the campaign got them registered. If they hadn’t voted the campaign made numerous contacts to insure they voted either by absentee, early voting or at the polls on Election Day.

  • Real time data and continuous updates allowed the Obama campaign to focus on those who were yet to vote. On the Romney side there was no focused approach. Millions were wasted chasing after votes of those who were certain to vote and certain to vote for Romney. This was the case even weeks after they had voted.

John Libby - President -American Public Dialogue

religious faith matters
Religious Faith Matters
  • Obama targeted None’swho comprise 20% of the electorate; 70 % voted for Obama, but 5% lower than 4 years ago.
  • Catholic 22% : 50% Obama, 48% Romney a 3% gain by Romney. White Catholics 59% for Romney. Hispanic 75% for Obama.
  • Mormons 2%: 78% for Romney.
  • Orthodox 1% Other Faiths 6%
  • Jews: 69% for Obama, but a 9% drop from 2008.
  • Protestants: Evangelicals 79% for Romney. Non-Evangelicals 54% for Romney.
  • Black Protestants 8%. 95% for Obama.

Source: Pew Research Center

John Libby - President -American Public Dialogue