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The Internet and Democracy

The Internet and Democracy. In the late 1990s and early 2000, many people predicted that the Internet was going to spread democracy around the world. Tom Friedman – choice between “free market vanilla and North Korea”

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The Internet and Democracy

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  1. The Internet and Democracy • In the late 1990s and early 2000, many people predicted that the Internet was going to spread democracy around the world. • Tom Friedman – choice between “free market vanilla and North Korea” • Bill Clinton – dictatorships trying to crack down on Internet is“sort of like trying to nail Jello to the wall” • Again, these optimistic visions of the future have failed to materialize. • But the Internet, together with related technologies (text messaging etc) has changed the way in which pro- and anti-democratic forces operate. • To understand why – need to look at what these technologies involve.

  2. Naïve beginnings • First flush of enthusiasm about the Internet. • Belief that it would spread democratic values and topple tyrants (Cyberlibertarianism). • True not only in developed world but even more so in developing world. • The Internet as a force for globalization. • Spreading Western values • Spreading the truth/resisting censorship • Of course, things weren’t as straightforward for reasons we have already discussed …

  3. Different technologies have different consequences • Bringing together some of the themes that we have discussed in class. • Internet and related technologies provide space for different kinds of media. • These media in turn are more or less conducive to different kinds of content. • And this affects how they reshape the landscape for pro- and anti- democracy forces.

  4. Two ways of promoting democracy • We should distinguish between two ways in which the Internet and related technologies can promote democracy. • Through providing help to pro-democracy activists in protests and other actions aimed at overturning regimes. • Through promoting civil society which may indirectly lead to more democracy in the long run. • And also should be aware that anti-democratic forces can use the Internet too. • Weakening of civil society in Russia and elsewhere.

  5. Different tools for different purposes • Various media (all based on the Internet or network communication) may have highly diverse consequences. • In particular – imply different relationships between the sender of a message/webpage/TV spot and the recipients. • We can distinguish between one-to-one forms of communication, one-to-many forms of communication, and many-to-many forms of communication.

  6. One to One Communication • Traditional forms of direct communication, in which one person is communicating with another (or perhaps with a very small number of people). • Traditional forms have included letters, face-to-face conversations etc. • Newer forms include much email (personal email etc). • But also much instant text messaging. • Also some new Web 2.0 technologies such as Twitter.

  7. One-to-many • Involves a single (or small number) of sources, and many possible recipients. • Traditional model of TV broadcasting and newspaper publishing. • But also applies to many forms of content on the Internet. • Standard web pages (of organizations etc) – designed to be read by many people, but not modified by them. • General email blasts (such as much of what MoveOn does in the US)

  8. Many-to-Many • Traditionally, it has been hard to have large distributed conversations. • But blogs provide one example of how this is changing. • A vast conversation taking place among large numbers of people – but organized. • Also, other new technologies, including social networking sites (Facebook etc) have important many-to-many aspects.

  9. Technologies and communication • Some technologies are better equipped to provide certain kinds of communication and less well equipped to provide others. • Email – great for one-to-one and one-to-many communication. Not so good for many-to-many. • Text messages – like email. • Web pages – good for one to many communication. • Blogs – good for many-to-many communication, and (sometimes) one-to-many communication, but overkill for one-to-one communication. • YouTube – excellent for one-to-many communication, and also has some many-to-many applications.

  10. Technologies and content • This goes together with differences in the kinds of content that different media favor. • Instant messages – short punchy messages, often in jargon. Encourages quick back-and-forth. • Email – somewhat longer text based messages (typically less quick than text messages). • Blogs – text based communication over period of hours. • YouTube etc – takes hours or days to edit and upload.

  11. Media and political action • Combination of (a) the nature of the medium (one to many, one to one etc), and the kinds of content it favors have implications for political action. • Some media are well suited to rapid organizing. • Others to slower forms of communication over days, weeks and perhaps longer. • Thus – we may expect different electronic media to have very different consequences for pro- and anti-democratic forces.

  12. Instant text messaging/SMS • Short simple messages are well suited to the organization of ‘smart mobs’ – crowds that converge on a particular place for a particular purpose. • Allow for quick adaptation to a limited set of changing circumstances (changed meeting place etc). • Thus well suited to the organization of spontaneous demonstrations and other similar forms of action. • One to many form of SMSing can also be used by state or protestors to organize concerted action.

  13. Blogs • Allow for more complex forms of discussion – and are speedier than traditional mass communication. • But not well suited to mobilization on the street. • May even serve as a distraction – some democratic activists complain about bloggers thinking they can spur the revolution from their bedroom (they can’t).

  14. Audiovisual services (YouTube etc) • Slower than other forms of electronic communication and not well suited at all to quick back-and-forths. • Preparing clips takes time and resources. • However, may have a profound impact on people’s willingness to mobilize. • Video can carry a much more visceral punch.

  15. What does this suggest … • (1) One-to-many or one-to-one technologies such as SMS/email can help organize broad political action. • Good at disseminating short pieces of information rapidly. • However only good at simple forms of communication – not long run movement building. • (2) Many-to-many text rich technologies such as blogs can coordinate more compex tasks, and substitute in part for a free press. • Much more sluggish than SMS and do not have a mass audience. • But can build civil society. • (3) Many-to-many forms of communication with audiovisual content (YouTube) are poor at organizing a mass audience. • But may help trigger mobilization in important ways.

  16. Case studies • 4 Case studies – allow us to see how these dynamics play out in real life. • China • The Ukraine • Lebanon, Bahrain and the Arab world • Russia

  17. China and the Internet • China has a highly developed set of controls on Internet. • not only blocks specific IP addresses, it also has dynamic filtering. • Can block pages that contain specific words (Falun Gong). • Has also blocked access sporadically to search engines at sensitive moments. • Blocked Google before an important Party Congress. • Now seems to have forced Google (and Yahoo! and Microsoft) to cooperate more generally.

  18. Jingjing and Chacha

  19. Blocking of content • On the one hand, this has led to severe restrictions on what you can and cannot talk about using the Internet in China. • Arrests of pro-democracy bloggers etc. • On the other, people still find ways to talk about political issues, but in highly indirect ways. • Some evidence that a limited degree of power is leaking away from the state. • Case of email from reporter – and response.

  20. Civil society vs. hyper-nationalism • Rebecca McKinnon – suggests that the US should not seek to push China on Internet freedom issues. • Chinese bloggers etc much more likely to flourish if they are not seen as directly challenging the regime. • Hopes for gradual flowering of a civil society – a realm of conversation outside the control of the state. • And perhaps leading to long run transition to democracy or at least a more responsive regime.

  21. Alternative scenario • However, there is an alternative possibility – c.f. the anti Japan riots in 2005. • These were organized by a mixture of bulletin boards (primitive forms of many-to-many) and text messaging. • Initially, they were at least tacitly encouraged by the regime. • However, rapidly got out of control and developed a life of their own – eventually squashed by the authorities. • This suggests that the benign civil society scenario isn’t the only one possible.

  22. The Ukraine • Dramatic elections in 2004 following the exit from power of Kuchma. • Opposition had a popular candidate in Yuschenko. • Government engaged in extensive vote-rigging to ensure that their candidate – Victor Yanukovych won. • Opposition organized protests in which 100,000-300,000 people came out every day to protest in Kiev, with other protests in other parts of Ukraine.

  23. SMS messaging • SMS messages not the only factor in getting people out to protest. • But did play an important role in organizing protests (esp. in mobilizing young people). • College students used SMS to tell a dozen of their friends to come to Independence Square – and to forward the message on to a dozen others creating a snowball effect. • Also provided less organized forms of political communication – political jokes etc.

  24. Blogs • Some have claimed that blogs played an important role. • Some evidence of a role for Ukrainskaya Pravda. • Substitute for censored print media. • But only 12% of Ukrainians had Internet access on a regular basis. • Thus – its impact was limited to elites.

  25. Old style media • Traditional TV also played a highly important role – bizarrely, the opposition had control over a TV station. • One notorious incident where Yanukovych was apparently attacked with “heavy, blunt instruments.” • But this wasn’t quite what it appeared.

  26. Final results • Public outcry led to a second vote being held, which Yuschenko won. • However, hasn’t proved a long term success. • Opposition fragmented after the elections. • Ukraine is better than it was, but is now at best a quite unstable democracy with continuing structural issues.

  27. The Arab World • The Internet still plays only a minor role in the Arab world because of low levels of penetration (not many people have access). • Cell phone access is relatively low too. • Satellite television is in many ways more important. • But there are important cases where the Internet and related technologies have made a political difference. • Lebanon – the Cedar Revolution • Bahrain – arguments between Shia majority and Sunni rulers.

  28. Cedar revolution and Internet • Lebanon sees higher use of cellphones/Internet than many other parts of the Arab world. • “Cedar Revolution” in Lebanon saw extensive use of text messaging to manage demonstrations. • Organized protests and helped protestors converge at designated points • Used to share encouraging information about the sympathies of soldiers who were ostensibly supposed to stop demonstrators from reaching central Beirut • Used to share photographs that were often later uploaded to websites

  29. Blogs and the Cedar Revolution • Contrary to some claims, blogs played no major role in the Cedar Revolution. • There were only a few Lebanese blogs in existence when it happened. • Afterwards – a flowering of blogs, primarily among Lebanese expatriates who wanted to discuss what was happening. • Mostly upper middle classes – not ‘voices of the street.’

  30. Revolution’s Aftermath • Like the Ukraine, the revolution has not sustained itself very well. • Repeated assassinations of anti-Syrian politicians. • Prominent role of Hezbollah/Israeli incursion. • General sense of chaos, instability – not by any stretch of the imagination an established democracy.

  31. Bahrain • Unusual among Arab countries in high penetration of the Internet – nearly a quarter of Bahrainis use it. • Also a society which is divided in important ways. • Shias form a majority of the population. • But are effectively excluded from politics; ruling family and elite are Sunni.

  32. Use of Internet by disaffected groups • Both democratic activists and Shia activists have common interests (a more democratic Bahrain would give Shias more power). • Have used Internet to articulate a political voice that they can’t in mainstream newspapers. • Bahrain Online (founded by Ali Abduleman) hosts web forums that vigorously debate politics.

  33. Organized dissidence • Blogs and cellphones have gone together to organize flash protests. • Abdulemam has used WWW, email and text messages to organize flash protests. • Opposition groups have used Bahrain Online to organize protests and strikes. • Has led to significant political disaffection, culminating in a dramatic set of events in 2005.

  34. UN Report • Abdulemam and colleagues were arrested in February 2005 for publishing a critical UN human rights report on their website. • Before arrest was even announced, a consortium of bloggers created a Free Ali web page. • This set in motion mass protests, and the involvement of Shia newspapers and liberal newspapers in denouncing the arrests. • 80,000 people involved in street demonstrations.

  35. Action on the Street • Demonstrations used ‘moblogs’ pairings of protestors with mobile phones to take photos and bloggers with computers to publish them. • Photos spread across Internet. • Al Jazeera started broadcasting the protests live. • Abdulemam freed after fifteen days.

  36. Other Arab bloggers • This is a success story for democracy. • However, as Marc Lynch has pointed out, Western commentators tend to emphasise pro-democracy bloggers and de-emphasize others, who have differing (some legitimate, some problematic) views of politics and society. • Islamic commentators have been vigorous adopters of new technologies. • Muslim Brotherhood has established an important presence in the Egyptian blogosphere. • Terrorist groups have had success in using WWW video – through circulation of beheading videos, video messages from their leaders etc.

  37. The Internet in Putin’s Russia • Russia – presents yet another model of the relationship between the Internet and the government. • Not an authoritarian regime – but not very democratic either. • In theory – Internet could serve as an alternative to a media sector that is only weakly democratic. • TV stations are controlled by government friendly forces. • Newspapers are either ineffective, or pro-government. • But the Internet doesn’t actually provide much in the way of alternative voices – why?

  38. Indirect State control • Not censorship as in China • Govt owns the largest ISP, and plays a dominant role in the market. • Laws require that ISPs allow govt access to incoming and outgoing traffic. • Yet the government doesn’t use these to block traffic as in other parts of the world. • Instead, a softer approach.

  39. Soft authoritarianism • Russian government has an Internet policy similar to that for the normal media. • Shadowy backers for many online news sources, whom the Kremlin can influence. • Denunciations of alternative voices as being catspaws for “foreign” interests. • This means that much of the information available online for Russians is, effectively, propaganda. • More subtle – but also perhaps more effective in the long run.

  40. Lessons of Democracy and the Internet • Different technologies do have different consequences. • We see how cellphone text messaging is the medium of choice for organizing protests. • Blogs may play an important role (within limits) in getting message out to others, and in framing events. • YouTube and other media are likely to become more important over time, given role played by TV in existing protests.

  41. Limits of Internet • Internet based technologies and cellphones may have improved chances for mobilizing protests. • But this is not enough in itself to create democracy. • Subsequent histories of Lebanon and Ukraine suggest that protests and the removal of the authoritarian ruler are not enough on their own to create successful democracies. • It may be that ‘instant protest’ technologies may be a bad thing over the longer term. • Mean that serious party organizations are less likely to be built up.

  42. Internet and civil society • As McKinnon suggests – it may well be that the Internet is more important in the long run because it creates a civil society. • Forms of cultural expression and debate that are outside the control of the state. • “American Idol” type show as the avatar of democracy. • Evidence from eighteenth century England and elsewhere that this was important over the longer run.

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