The Meltdown?

1. The Meltdown? The Arctic: J. Aretakis -J. Fenner -K. Frost http://info.detnews.com/dn/pix/2005/10/27/asec/as027-arctic-1005n_10-27-2005_SN9BJEV.jpg

2. Why should we care? • World is warming rapidly • Anthropogenic causes • Arctic feeling affects the most • Arctic is an indicator of changes to come http://projects.edtech.sandi.net/brooklyn/icyhot/images/pb_relax1.JPG

3. To what degree is the Arctic susceptible to negative climate change affects and why? Question: http://www.2041.com/ant-latest/14/beaut-ant.jpg Hypothesis: The Arctic is especially susceptible to the negative affects of climate change due to factors such as ice cover, elemental fluxes of carbon, albedo changes, permafrost melt, ecosystem shifts, and the involvement of multiple positive feedback loops.

4. Outline • Global Issues • Arctic Issues • Implications • Solutions • Conclusion http://www.charawilliams.com/images/photos/melt.jpg http://203.15.102.140/assetbin/arcticmeltdown548.jpg

5. Global Issues • The world is warming • 0.6 degrees Celsius in the 20th century • Not natural fluctuation • Short time scale • Anthropogenic causes • Carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide have increased by 31%, 150% and 17% • Fossil fuel combustion • Greenhouse gas emissions http://www.umarsiddiqi.com/albums/Professional/traffic.sized.jpg

6. CO2 Concentrations and Emissions http://www.pca.state.mn.us/programs/indicators/iom-0402.html

7. Arctic Issues • Permafrost Melt

8. Arctic Issues • Arctic Glacier and Ice Cap Melt • Glaciers in western Canada and Alaska have dumped 900 Trillion gallons of water into the ocean in the last 50 years • Sea Ice equal to the size of Texas has melted over the North pole (Chen 2006)

9. Terrestrial Carbon Cycle Climate Feedback • A Shorter season for snow pack and ice formation • Snow and Ice Albedo Positive Feedback Cycle

10. Arctic Issues • Ecosystem shift • Species cannot move further north because there isn’t any land. • Shrubs decrease albedo. http://www.wondermill.com/img/shrubbery.jpg

11. Implications • Climate change is accelerated in the Arctic • Presence of positive feedback loops • Changes will directly effect the entire globe • Indicator of the changes to come for the rest of the world http://www.ultraweaver.com/downloads/files/earth.jpg

12. Solutions • Short term: • Adaptation to current situation • Aid, innovation, and information • Long term: • Adaptation to expected effects • Mitigation • Global Cooperation http://www.ghgonline.org/images/ipcc5b.gif

13. Conclusion • Changes in the Arctic serve as “canary” for the world • Accelerated climate change in the Arctic requires forward-thinking policy • Overall goals: • adaptation and mitigation on appropriate scales • Sustainable growth • Global effort for global issue http://www.welshmountainzoo.org/photos/BIRD01A.jpg

14. References • Armstrong, Franny. Baked Alaska. Spanner Films Ltd. 2003. • Braithwait, R. 2005. Mass-balance characteristics of arctic glaciers. Annals of Glaciology. 42: 225-229. • Brewer, T.L. 2005. US public opinion on climate change issues: implications for consensus-building and policymaking. Climate Policy 4 (4): 359-376. • Bruderheim REA. Global Warming Explained. 26 Sep 2002. Online. 24 Oct 2006. • <http://www.fathersforlife.org/REA/warming4.htm>. • Chapin, F. Stuart Chapin, III, Lovecraft, Amy L., Zavaleta, Erika S., Nelson, Joanna, Robards, Martin D., Kofinas, Gary P., Trainor, Sarah F., Peterson, Garry D., Huntington, Henry P., and Naylor, Rosamond L. 2006. Policy strategies to address sustainability of Alaskan boreal forests in response to a directionally changing climate. PNAS 103 (45): 16637-16643. • Chen, J., Tapley, B., Wilson, C. 2006. Alaskan mountain glacial melting observed by satellite gravimetry. Earth and Planetary Science Letters. 248 (1-2): 368-378. • Christensen, T., Cox, P. 1995. Response of Methane Emission From Arctic Tundra to Climatic-Change – Results from a Model Simulation. Tellus Series B-Chemical and Physical Meterorology. 47(3): 301-309. • Corell, Robert W. 2006. Challenges of climate change: An Arctic perspective. Ambio 35 (4): 148-152. • De Brauw, Alan. 2006. The Kyoto Protocol, market power, and enforcement. Applied economics 38 (18): 2169-2178. • De Woul, M., Hock, R. 2005. Static mass-balance sensitivity of Arctic glaciers and ice caps using a degree-day approach. Annals of Glaciology. 42: 217-224. • Hausen, James, Sato, Makiko, Ruedy, Reto, Lo, Ken, Lea, David W., and • Medina-Elizade, Martin. 2006. Global Temperature Change. Proceedings of the • National Academy of Sciences of the United States. 103(39): 14288-14293.

15. References cont. • Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change. “Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis”. 2001. http://www.unep.se/climate/ipcc_tar/wg1/images/fig7-6.gif (23 October 2006) • Karl, T., Trenberth, K. 2003. Modern Global Climate Change. Science. 302:1719-1723. • Ling, F., Zhang,T. Impact of the timing and duration of seasonal snow cover on the active layer and permafrost in the Alaskan Arctic. 2003. Permafrost and Periglacial Processes. 14: 141-150. • Liston, G., McFadden, J., Sturm, M., Pielke, R. 2002. Modeled changes in arctic tundra snow, energy and moisture fluxes due to increased shrubs. Global Change Biology. 8(1): 17-32. • Møller, A.P., Flensted-Jensen, E., and Mardal, W. 2006. Dispersal and climate change: a • case study of the Arctic tern Sterna paradisaea. Global Change Bio. 12(10): 2005-2013. • Oechel, W., Hastings, S., Vourlitis, G., Jenkins, M., Riechers, G., Grulke, N. 1993. • Recent change of Arctic tundra ecosystems from a net carbon dioxide sink to a Source. Nature. 361: 520-524. • PBS. Hot times in Alaska. Chedd-Angier Production Company. 2004. • Potter, C. 2004. Predicting climate change effects on vegetation, soil thermal dynamics, and carbon cycling in ecosystems of interior Alaska. Ecological Modeling. 175(1): 1-24. • Riordan, B., Verbyla, D., McGuire, A. 2006. Shrinking ponds in subarctic Alaska based on 1950-2002 remotely sensed images. Journal of Geophysical Research-Atmosphere. 111. • Steffen, Will. 2006. The Arctic in an earth system context: From brake to accelerator of change. Ambio 35 (4): 153-159.