Greg Kiker Agricultural & Biological Engineering Dept University of Florida

1. Developing Iterative Decision Support Tools for Exploring GEC and Food System Scenarios for the Indo-Gangetic Plain Greg Kiker Agricultural & Biological Engineering Dept University of Florida Phone: (352) 392-1864 ext 291Email: gkiker@ufl.edu

2. Overview • Decision Support Tools and Analysis • QnD Model and its Use • QnD:Jamaica Version 0.0 • Discussion

3. Traditional Decision Support Systems • Many definitions, many visions, many versions… • DSS Integrate Tools and Methodologies • Method Descriptions and Tools • Information Storage and Databases • Models • Visualization (examples: maps, graphics, charts…) • Decision analysis (examples: Adaptive management, Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis, Trade-off analysis, Linear Programming)

4. Challenges in Building DSS • DSS almost always focus on one sector’s (or discipline’s) tools and concepts • Model integration is difficult and technically challenging • DSS are not always helpful in unearthing assumptions • Transparency versus Ease of Use • Integration with scenario planning and communication - “More gaps than links” (Mike Brklacich, 2005)

5. Decision Support

6. Useful Questions • Who will use these IGP Decision Support Tools? • What decisions need to be made? • Over time? • Over space? • Adaptively? • How do you or your constituents currently make decisions? • What new techniques are you willing to explore? • What are your information, support and communication needs? • Training/Workshops? Reports? Web Tools? • What does transparency in decisions mean to you? • What does it look like? • What level of transparency is appropriate? And remember…you can always change your mind…

7. QnD Model • QnD™ – “Questions and Decisions™” or “Quick n Dirty” • A fully integrated Graphic User Interface (GUI) with a flexible model engine • One model - Many ecosystems • Java code / XML inputs • Dynamically instantiated objects • Java-based deployment in web browsers • “Fast Deployment” (weeks/months) • Spatial simulation with GIS linkage • Multiple time steps • Multiple maps/graphs/files for output variables

8. subComponent subProcess “Simulation Engine” “Game View” • Developer’s point of contact • Integrates information • Objects: Components, Processes and Data • Calculation of state variables • User/Player’s point of contact • Communicates information • “Widgets”: Maps, Charts, Warning Lights, Text, Sliders, Icons, Buttons • User choices – management settings, simulate fast or slow time step, reset

9. User-Defined “Slow and Fast” Time Steps Management Options QnD:Game View Reset Button “Warning Lights” Tabbed panes with several time series charts Mouse-driven Chart and Text Display Spatial Maps of Ecosystem Indicators

10. Actors • Players: Interact mostly with the game view. • Explore management responses, adaptive opportunities, trade-offs for different scenarios. • Provide reality checks • Have some interest in the engine structure in their area of interest • Provide ideas and directions for further iterations • Developers: Interact mostly with the engine. • Design and implement engine/game view through XML files. • Provide formal calibration/validations • Implement ideas and directions of Players • Have some interest in the model code  subComponent GameDriver.java ModelCreator.java • Coders: Interact mostly with the QnD source code. • Develop java code to expand engine and game view utility • Create new programming code for ideas from Players and Developers… subProcess “Game View” “Simulation Engine” QnD Java Source Code PrimaryGameFrame.java

11. Genesis Session Prototype QnD Game View and Simulation Engine • Talk about the system, goals, desires • Explore current management options • Gather initial maps/data • Brainstorm about desired management options, relevant information and socio-economic realities • Rough estimate of components, processes and data • Simple information • Deployed in limited circulation for calibration/reality checks Iterative Sessions 1…n Deployed QnD Model • Refine goals, objectives • Explore current and possible management options • Calibrate/Validate engine performance • Revise Game View for relevant management information • Make changes concerning management options, relevant information and socio-economic factors • Player/Developer reviewed components, processes and data • More relevant information • Brainstorm about desired management options, relevant information and socio-economic realities QnD: Development Methodology

12. Launch QnD JNLP deployment Launch QnD Applet Version View QnD XML Files Style Sheets QnD Web Site/Deployment

13. Key External Driver Influences Food Transfer QnD Objects Money Transfer Population Transfer QnD:Jamaica – OverviewMoving Money, Food and People Jamaica Climate International Economic Activity Domestic Food Production Rural People Foreign Remunerations Middle Folk Food Imports Urban People

14. Parish Spatial Unit Habitats • Urban Habitat • Rural Habitat Marine Spatial Unit Habitats • Default Habitat • (100 %)

15. Key Class A Road Class B Road J$ Exchange Rate US$ • Import Market • Food • Other Goods • Export Market • Cash Crop • Other Goods

16. Convert Land Key Influences Food Transfer Money Transfer Rural Area Unsuitable Land Available Land Plant Livestock Farmers Cash Crops Harvest $ Food Crops Sell Crop $ $ Fishers Cash Crop Export Market Sell Fish Catch Buy Food Buy Food $ Tourist Workers Buy Food Other Worker $ Unemployed Buy Import Middle Folk Marine Spatial Unit Imported Food $ Sell Fish Fish $ Catch Fisher Export Market Buy Food $ Tourist Worker Other Worker $ Buy Food Urban Area Unemployed

17. Rural Area Farmers Harvest $ Sell Crop $ Payments from Overseas $ Fishers Sell Fish Buy Food Buy Food $ Tourist Workers Buy Food Other Worker $ Unemployed Buy Import Middle Folk Imported Food $ Sell Fish $ Catch Fisher Key Buy Food Population Transfer $ Send Money Tourist Worker Food Transfer Other Worker $ Buy Food Change Location Urban Area Unemployed Money Transfer

18. Socio-Economic Drivers • Millennium Scenarios • Global Orchestration • Order From Strength • Techno Garden • Adapting Mosaic • Tourist visits, foreign investment, external prices, etc. • QnD:Jamaica Version 0.0 • Stochastic relationships • Time series values • Incremental change • Climatic Drivers • QnD Scenarios • Techno Garden with mild Climate Change • Techno Garden with intense Climate Change • Etc… • Climate Scenarios • Precipitation • Hurricane Intensity/ Frequency • Sea Level Rise

19. IGP Decision Support Tools Source: www.gecafs.org

20. Spatial Areas of Interest ? 5 zones? Districts? Rural vs Urban ? Scenarios? Land Use, Socio-Economic, Climate Change Scenarios? Drivers (Floods, Rainfall, Climate Change, Trade Policies? Decision Metrics / Well Being Metrics ? “Bright Lines”? Local metrics vs regional metrics Time Steps? Growers/Citizens (Monthly?) Decision/Policy Folk (1-5 years?) GEC (10 – 50 years?) IGP Decision Support Tools • People? • Landless , Landholders (.1-.2.5ha), Landholders (2.5-5ha), Landholders (>5 ha), Wage Earners, Unemployed • Food? • Wheat? Rice? Imports? • Resources? • “Bright Lines”? • Local metrics vs regional metrics • Policies? • Food Aid? • Crop Insurance? • Rural Enterprise development?

21. QnD Model: Further Information • General QnD information (available as pdf files) • Kiker, G.A., Rivers-Moore, N.A., Kiker, M.K. and Linkov, I. (2006). QnD: A modeling game system for integrating environmental processes and practical management decisions. (Chapter in Morel, B. Linkov, I., (Eds) “Environmental Security and Environmental Management: The Role of Risk Assessment.” Springer, Netherlands. Pp:151-185. • Kiker, G.A. and Linkov, I. 2006. The QnD Model/Game System: Integrating Questions and Decisions for Multiple Stressors. (Chapter in Arapis, G., Goncharova, N. and Baveye, P. (Eds) “Ecotoxicology, Ecological Risk Assessment and Multiple Stressors ” Springer, Netherlands. Pp:203-225. • Other QnD Papers • Kiker, G.A., Kiker, M.K., Mosier, A. and Jones, J. (2006). Design and Development of a Scenario-Based, Decision Support System for Integrating Food, Market and Ecological Systems in the Caribbean Region. GECAFS White Paper. (In final preparation, Agricultural Systems). • Kiker, G.A., Justice, L. (2006). QnD:Jamaica v0.0 – Design and Implementation of a decision support model for food, finance and population dynamics in Jamaica. (In preparation, Agricultural Systems). • Kiker, G.A., Kim, J.B., Justice, L. and Linkov, I. (2006). Integrating Simulation Models and Multicriteria Decision Tools for Estimating the Socio-Economic Impacts of Natural Hazards: Hurricanes and Sea Level Rise in Jamaica. (In preparation, Risk Analysis).

22. Discussion • Who will use these IGP Decision Support Tools? • What decisions need to be made? • Over time? • Over space? • Adaptively? • How do you or your constituents currently make decisions? • What new techniques are you willing to explore? • What are your information, support and communication needs? • Training/Workshops? Reports? Web Tools? • What does transparency in decisions mean to you? • What does it look like? • What level of transparency is appropriate? And remember…you can always change your mind…

23. Questions?