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Rail-Truck Diversion Approach

Rail-Truck Diversion Approach. Transportation leadership you can trust. I-40/I-81 Corridor Feasibility Study. presented to 12th TRB National Planning Applications Conference Houston, Texas presented by Dan Beagan Cambridge Systematics, Inc. May 18, 2009. I-40/I-81 Corridor Feasibility Study.

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Rail-Truck Diversion Approach

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  1. Rail-Truck Diversion Approach Transportation leadership you can trust. I-40/I-81 Corridor Feasibility Study presented to12th TRB National Planning Applications ConferenceHouston, Texas presented byDan BeaganCambridge Systematics, Inc. May 18, 2009

  2. I-40/I-81 Corridor Feasibility Study • Identify and address I-40/I-81 deficiencies • Consider effectiveness of truck/rail diversion • Consider multimodal solutions • HOV/HOT/truck only lanes • Increased use of rail • Public transit

  3. Study Corridor • Bristol to Memphis, 550 Miles • Includes 9 of the State’s 12 RPOs • Crosses 8 of the State’s 11 MPOs

  4. Trans-Tennessee CorridorProject Description • Build out rail network between Nashville and Knoxville Source: “An Evaluation of the Tennessee Rail Plan’s Treatment of a Trans-Tennessee Rail Routing” by Center for Business and Economic Research University of Tennessee

  5. Rationale for Constructing the Rail Link • Practical impact of east-west network connectivity • Alternate route for through rail traffic • Supplement for NS’s current Knoxville-Memphis line • Easy rail access for Nashville goods to the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast markets • CSX currently runs north-south through Nashville • Avoid circuitous Atlanta and Cincinnati routes • No NS service to Nashville • Easy rail access for Knoxville goods to the Northwest

  6. Nashville and Knoxville Access • Freight flows from Nashville to Mid-Atlantic and Northeast • Need to estimate divertible truck tons in 2030 • Freight flows from Knoxville to the Northwest • Need to estimate divertible truck tons in 2030 • Truck-rail diversion model will determine if these divertible tons are significant on I-40/I-81 highway flows

  7. Truck-Rail Diversion Methodology • TDOT Freight Rail Model • Developed as part of the TDOT Freight Model • TRANSEARCH 2001 rail flows assigned to TransCAD rail network using length as impedance • Pros • Ability to estimate diversion based on improvements proposed as part of I-40/I-81 study • Data consistency with previous TDOT freight rail analyses • Cons • No capacity maximums on rail network • Capacity changes will need to be reality checked with railroads

  8. Truck-Rail Diversion MethodologyOverview • Run existing rail model under future year scenario • Update future year scenario and re-run model • Determine the change in distance between all origin-destination pairs in the existing and the updated rail models • Estimate the change in cost associated with the change in distance • Use cross-elasticities to estimate level of diversion from truck to rail

  9. Truck-Rail Diversion Trans-Tennessee Corridor • Add a rail link between Cookeville and Crossville to the rail network • Use the FRA shapefile as a guide for link shape, length, and placement

  10. Truck-Rail Diversion Estimate New Distances • Calculate lengths for new links in the updated rail network • Re-run the rail model with the updated rail network • Re-calculate the distances beween allorigin-destination pairs with this new network

  11. Trans-Tennessee CorridorNetwork Connectivity for Through Rail Traffic Knoxville 469 Memphis 446 • Proposed east-west connection distance = 469 miles • Current Knoxville-Memphis rail line distance = 446 miles

  12. Truck-Rail Diversion ExampleTrans-Tennessee CorridorEstimate Cost Savings • Estimate the rail cost associated for each origin-destination pair with and without the new rail link • For carload rail, cost/ton = $14.55 + $0.025 * miles • For intermodal rail, cost/ton = $20.84 + $0.028 * miles • Calculate the percentage change in costs • For each origin-destination pair without the new rail link • For each origin-destination pair with the new rail link

  13. Truck-Rail Diversion Estimate Cost Savings • Rail costs decrease for goods shipped by rail from Nashville to the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast

  14. Truck-Rail Diversion Estimate Cost Savings • Rail costs decrease for goods shipped by rail from Knoxville to some states to the West

  15. Truck-Rail Diversion Estimate Cost Savings • Rail costs decrease for goods shipped from North Carolina to some states in the West and counties in NW Tennessee

  16. Truck-Rail Diversion Estimate Diversion • Use “cross-elasticities” to convert from change in rail costs to percent diversion from truck to rail in terms of tonnages Source: “Estimates of Mode Choice Probabilities and Market Elasticities of Demand” by Walid M. Adelwahab.

  17. Truck-Rail Diversion Estimate Diversion to Rail • Calculate diversion of tonnages • Assign tonnages to rail network

  18. Truck-Rail Diversion Estimate Diversion from Truck/Highway • Convert annual tonnages diverted to daily truck trips • Remove diverted trucks from the truck trip table in the SWM TransCAD truck model • Assign new truck trip table to the highway network to determine the magnitude of the diversion for each highway link

  19. Truck Rail DiversionDiversion from Truck/Highway • 500 trucks per day diverted from I-40 to the new rail connection • Diversion primarily limited to • Exchanges through northwest Tennessee to the Pacific Northwest • Exchanges to and from the Carolinas • The expected diversion of trucks traveling between Knoxville and Memphis did not materialize • Rail distance on the existing Norfolk Southern line,via Huntsville, Alabama is 446 miles • Rail distance for the proposed route on the CSX tracks,via Nashville is 469 miles

  20. Rail-Focused Package • New intermodal yards (East Tennessee, relocation of Nashville yard to outside of urban area) • Rail line on new I-40 bridge over Mississippi River bridge in Memphis • Enhanced rail connectivity • NS Crescent Corridor • Does not include “Missing Link” Nashville to Knoxville • B/C for I-40 is 0.1

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