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Barry Naisbitt Economic Analysis

Trends in the Economy. Barry Naisbitt Economic Analysis. 30 th September 2010, London. United Kingdom. GDP Growth (% q/q). Recession has been deep.

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Barry Naisbitt Economic Analysis

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  1. Trends in the Economy Barry NaisbittEconomic Analysis 30th September 2010, London United Kingdom

  2. GDP Growth (% q/q) Recession has been deep • Output in the World’s major economies fell sharply in late 2008 and early 2009. The economies look to have emerged from recession by late 2009. Source – OECD

  3. Level of output by industries (Index 2006=100) Output performance has shown a mixed picture • UK manufacturing output fell by 14.3% from its level in Q2’08 to the low point in Q3‘09. • In contrast, total service sector output fell by 4.6% over the same period. Source – ONS

  4. Level of employment by industries (Index 2006=100) Employment has fallen • Services employment fell by 2% from its level in Q2’08 to the low point in Q4‘09. • In contrast, manufacturing employment fell by 10% over the same period. Source – ONS

  5. Unemployment Rate (%) Unemployment has risen as a consequence • The unemployment rate in the US has risen more than rates in the UK or the Euro-zone. • Unemployment in the UK reached 8.0% in March ‘10, its highest since October ’96. Source – ONS, BLS

  6. Fiscal Tightening Government borrowing has risen sharply • Public sector borrowing and debt have risen sharply but governments have announced plans to reduce borrowing by reducing spending and increasing taxation. Public Sector Net Borrowing (as % GDP) Public Sector Net Debt (as % GDP) Source – Budget June’10, ONS

  7. World Exports ($Trillion) The global economy is now recovering • World trade has picked up from its sharp fall and low point in Q1’09. • However, it will take time to regain the previous peak in activity. Source – WTO

  8. Average earnings growth and inflation (%) Relatively high inflation is reducing real earnings growth • Despite the recession, inflation has been running above its target. As average earnings growth has moderated, the higher inflation has squeezed real earnings growth. Source – ONS

  9. Consumer Confidence & Retail Sales Volume ( index & 3m/3m annual % change) and Business Investment Growth (level, £bn) Consumers and businesses • Consumer confidence has recovered from its lows but recent readings have shown some softening. Business investment has steadied after a substantial fall in early 2009. Source – ONS, GfK

  10. Latest economic indicators The economic outlook is far from certain • UK GDP grew very strongly in Q2 (+1.2% q/q), but this rapid pace will weaken. There is speculation about a possible ‘double dip’. Source – Financial Times, 2nd September

  11. Budget GDP Forecast (% Annual change in GDP) Recovery is expected to continue • The new Office of Budget Responsibility (OBR) expects the economy to grow by 1.2% in 2010, 2.3% in 2011 and 2.8% in 2012. Source–Budget June’10

  12. United Kingdom

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