1 / 57

Extreme Weather: Scientific Reality and the Climate Reality Project

Explore the reality of extreme weather events, their identification and attribution, and the impact on global climate. Learn about Houston's climate reality through scientific data and projections.

lbailey
Download Presentation

Extreme Weather: Scientific Reality and the Climate Reality Project

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Extreme Weather:Scientific Realityand the Climate Reality Project John W. Nielsen-Gammon Regents Professor of Atmospheric Sciences, Texas A&M University Texas State Climatologist

  2. Outline • What is extreme weather? • Why does it matter? • How do we identify and attribute changes? • Science reality vs. climate reality: what’s happening in Houston • Informational vs. inspirational

  3. My slides are crappier.

  4. Extreme Weather • Short definition: Weather that’s newsworthy • Long definition: two kinds • Weather that’s extremely unlikely • Weather that’s unhealthy or damaging • (The same event often fits both definitions)

  5. IPCC SREX

  6. IPCC SREX

  7. IPCC SREX

  8. - + - +

  9. IPCC SREX

  10. 110 °F 100 °F 90 °F 80 °F 70 °F

  11. 110 °F 100 °F 90 °F 80 °F 70 °F 7 °F in Houston = 3 °C global avg

  12. Galveston: 30 Records this winter

  13. 2016-2017

  14. 2016-2017

  15. 2015-2016

  16. 2014-2015

  17. The Three Pillars of Sound Attribution(National Research Council, 2015)

  18. The Three Pillars of Sound Attribution A clear historical trend

  19. The Three Pillars of Sound Attribution Consistent model projections A clear historical trend

  20. The Three Pillars of Sound Attribution Consistent model projections A clear historical trend A sound physical basis

  21. Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change General Ike Unknown frequency change for Gulf of Mexico Category 2 Sea level rise plus coastal subsidence Relatively minor • Probably fewer globally • Peak intensity increases • Storm surge enhanced by sea level rise • Rainfall intensity enhanced

  22. Change in hurricane frequency

  23. Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change General Ike Unknown frequency change for Gulf of Mexico Category 2 Sea level rise plus coastal subsidence Relatively minor • Probably fewer globally • Peak intensity increases • Storm surge enhanced by sea level rise • Rainfall intensity enhanced

  24. 2100 2050 National Centers for Environmental Information

  25. Actually, 9.06”

  26. *about once every 5000 days

  27. 60% 45% Trend per century 30% 15% 0% Corresponds to about 5% increase in amounts

  28. 60% 45% Trend per century 30% 15% 0%

More Related