PES PC2010 Post Enumeration Survey of Indonesia Population Census 2010 Directorate for Development of Census and Survey Methodology May 10, 2010
Introduction Non sampling error always exists in data collection. This error is bias source which is caused by field enumerator and respondent responses.
Introduction (2) • Field staff error: • coverage error : under coverageorover coverage, and • content error • While, respondent error: response errorwhich is part of content error.
Introduction (3) The Indonesia Badan Pusat Statistik (Statistics Indonesia, BPS) is conducting the 2010 Population Census in May of 2010. In order to evaluate the quality of the 2010 Census, the BPS will conduct a Post Enumeration Survey (PES) in a sample of census enumeration blocks (CBs) about one month following the census enumeration.
Objectives • The objective of the PES will be to evaluate both the census coverage as well as the content errors in the census data • Census coverage indicators (i.e., omission rate, net coverage error rate) • Reliable estimates for 33 provinces • Based on dual system estimation • Measure census content errors • Cross-tabulate census and PES responses for each variable, using records for matched persons • Indices of inconsistency – measure of response error
PES2000 VS PES2010 PES SP2010 • Designed to estimate the population (Province level) • Sample size: • 33 provinces • 1200 census blocks • With field reconciliation PES SP2000 • Was not designed to estimate the population • Sample size: • 4 provinces ( 11 regencies/cities) • 40 census blocks • Without field reconciliation
Coverage • PES SP2010 will be conducted in: • 33 provinces • 1.200census blocks (CBs)
Activity Time Table • ActivitySchedule • Master Nat’l Instructors Workshop WeekIII April 2010 • Document DeliveryMay 2010 • Instructors Training Week I June 2010 • Field Enumerator Training Week II June 2010 • HH & Population Enumeration Week III-IV June 2010 • Matching Coordinator & Data Processing Briefing Week III-IV June 2010 • Desk-match)HH & population Week I July 2010 • Reconciliation visit Week II July 2010 • Final Matching Week III July 2010 • Data Processing in BPS ProvinceJuly-September 2010 • Doc & data delivery to BPS HQ August-September 2010 • Statistical CountingSeptember 2010 • Data Analysis & report writing September 2010 • Publication printing October 2010
Sample Allocation • Sample allocation: • Proportional to square root of population • Min 24 CBs; Max 80 CBs per province
Selection of CBs Sample • One Stage PPS, size: estimated number of household from census mapping ( KK ), Urban/Rural as implicitstratificationvariable • Exception for Provinces of Maluku, Maluku Utara, Papua & Papua Barat: • Two stage sampling: • Select 6 districts • Select 4 CBs per district
Training in BPS Province • Field enumerator training (3 effective days) • - Participants are CP2010 best enumerators • Matcher training (2effective days) • - Matcher from BPS Province • Data entry training (3 effective days) • - Persons form BPS Province
Field Organization • Headquarter • General Person In Charge (PIC) is head of BPS HQ, helped by Deputy ofMIS. • Technical PIC is Director for Development of Census & Survey Methodology. • Province • General PICis head of BPS Province. • Technical PIC isHead of IPDS BPS Province
Diagram 2. Field Organization of PES PC2010 • District • General PICis head of BPS Reg/City • Technical PIC is Head of IPDS BPS Reg/City
Field • A team consists of 1team coordinator& 2 enumerators. • Team Coordis Kepala Seksi Or Coord of SubDist Statistics (KSK) or staffof BPS Reg/Citywith best capabilities, • Enumerator isstatistical partner of staff BPS Reg/Cityappointed. • Team coord coordinated with KSK for filed enumeration and responsible to Kasie IPDS. • Since PES is part of Population Census, then Kasie IPDS should coordinatewith Kasie Statistik Sosial.
Document Flow • Documents for training & field enumeration will be delivered by BPS HQ to BPS Provincec.q. Kabid IPDS. • BPS Provincewill distribute these documents needed by enumerators to BPS Reg/City c.q. Kasi IPDS. • BPS Reg/Citywill distribute documentsto team coord, next team cooed will distribute it to enumerators as much as needed for field enumeration.
Document Flow (cont’d) • BPS Reg/Cityhave to keep eye on documents of enumeration whetherit have been given to team coord on time, whether team coord have given the cleaned document to BPS Reg/City. • After document checking in BPS Reg/City is done, document must be delivered to BPS Province c.q. Kabid IPDS immediately. • All PES documents will be kept in BPS Province until final report of Population Census 2010 is released.
PES Enumeration • 1 month following census enumeration • All census documents already in BPS Province to maintain independency • Max 6 weeks after census: • Reducing recall error • Reducing level of population movement
PES Enumeration (2) • Enumeration by team: • One team consists of 1 team coordinator and two enumerators • Workload: 2-4 CBs per team
PES Enumeration (3) • PES enumerator should be independent of the census operation • PES enumerator assigned to different CBs from his/her census working areas. • PES questionnaires are designed to obtain information on current residents of (de jure) and persons who moved out after census (out-movers).
Moving Status of Enumerated Persons • Important to account for moving status of population between census and PES • Current PES residents: • Non-movers • Persons who are recorded after census • In-mover • Out-of-scope (born after census) • Out-movers (moved or died after census)
Enumeration methodology • Procedure C1 described in reference manuals • Match non-movers and out-movers • Easier to find in same sample CB • Count in-movers • More accurate coverage • Estimate matched movers • Apply match rate of out-movers to number of in-movers
Questionnaire SP2010 PES1 • Will be used one for all: • HH and population enumeration • Matching of hh/population • Field reconciliation • Shading Area will be taken from census questionnaire (Form SP2010-C1) • Consists of three main blocks (of total 9 blocks): • Block IV Non-mover and in-mover • Block V Persons moved/died after census • Block VI Persons enumerated in census not in PES
Questionnaire SP2010 PES2 • For household enumerated in census not in PES
MATCHING FLOW SP2010 PES1 HH ENUMERATED IN CENSUS NOT IN PES HH enumerated in PES & Census HH Status in SP200 PES1 = Non-match No No SP2010-C1 Yes Yes PERSONS INITIAL MATCHING FILL SP2010 PES2 PROBABLY MATCH? Yes No FIELD RECONCILIATION FINISH PERSON FINAL MATCHING
Desk-Match Two-way matching between all households and persons (non-movers and out-movers) enumerated in census and PES for sample CBs. HH and persons enumerated in PES coded as not matched are treated as census omissions in PES estimation procedures.
Desk-match ( 2 ) Matching documents PES and census will be conducted in BPS PROVINCE. a. 1 matcher will match 3 CBs b. Matcher is staff of BPS Province Quality control of matching operation will be better. Documents need to be sent back to BPS Reg/City for reconciliation visit
Matching of households • First level of matching – households • Availability of census stickers for most households will make matching more effective and faster • First step – match households based on census sticker information • Next – remaining households matched based on names of heads of household • Possible to use PES listing sheets to help with matching
Matching of households (continued) • After first part of household matching, remaining households matched based on names of individual persons • Households considered matched if at least one person matched • Multiple households can be matched • Matched 1 to 2 or more • Matched 2 or more to 1
Matching of households (continued) • 7 (seven) possibilities found in initial matching of household: 1. Matched 1 to 1 2. Matched 1 to 2 or more 3. Matched 2 or more to 1 4. Non-match 5. In-mover 6. Out-of-scope 7. Possible match
Matching of Persons • Only for hh that is matched • Matching of persons only done for: • Non-movers • Out-movers (moved or died after census) • Matching establish numbers of rules, allow some flexibility in range of ages especially for older persons.
Matching of Persons ( 2 ) Generally, person will be match in matched hh. Non-movers and out-movers will be matched with person in census. Non-movers are persons who are listed in Block IV Form SP2010 PES1, out-movers are persons who are listed in Block V Form SP2010 PES1.
Matching of Persons ( 2 ) • Possible match name is consistent and some other characteristics match, but not all • When matcher consider there is a chance the PES and census persons match. • Matching coordinator may convert some possible matches to final matches before reconciliation
Rules & Guidelines of Matching • In assinging person match status, matcher has match 4 variables of PES & census: 1. name of person, 2. sex, 3. relationship to head of hh, and, 4. age. • Matcherhas to establish rules in assigning person initial match status.
Tabel 4.3 Tolerance for Variable: Name, Relationship to head of hh, and Age
Tabel 4.4 Changes of Relationship to Head of HH Between PES & Census Notes: P : not contradictory Ð : Contradictory
Reconciliation visit • Reconciliation visit is critical part of PES methodology • Necessary to follow up all households and persons enumerated in the census but not in the PES • Determine whether each household and person was correctly enumerated in the census • Erroneously enumerated persons subtracted from census population in the estimation procedures • Follow up cases of possible matches to determine final match status
The objectives of reconciliation visit is not to make any correction to the result of census or PES enumeration (because this would break the assumption of independency), but only to verify information which have been gathered. To maintain independency between PES and census, enumerator is not allowed to add person or hh, or to change demographic characteristics of person/hh, either in census or in PES questionnaire.
After reconciliation visit, there are no more cases of ”possible match”. All outcomes will be mutually exclusive.
Dual system estimation Asumption: PES and Census are independent. RM = proportion of matched person from PES data
Weighting PES data • Necessary to attach weights to the PES data for estimates to be representative • Weights based on inverse of probability of selection • Weights will vary by stratum and CB • Weights may be adjusted based on final census results
Census Population Correctly Enumerated • The total census population correctly enumerated ( ) is estimated by subtracting an estimate of the census erroneously enumerated population from the PES data (based on the E-sample), , from the official census figure for the total population. = where is the official census total population