MONTHLY REPORT Nov, 2009 Accounting, Finance and Investment. Presenter: Neva Lin Investment Dept. 27th Nov 2009. Outline. A ctivities and Achievements for this month and Plans for next month. II. Financial report of Oct. III. Economic indicators update and investment outlook.
Accounting, Finance and Investment
Presenter: Neva Lin
27th Nov 2009
II. Financial report of Oct
III. Economic indicators update and investment outlook
2009 OctActualFinancial Income
Trend of revenue and expense from Jan to Oct 09
( mil VND)
From Jan to Oct 2009 Financial income
( mil VND)
MoM chgI. Local News : stimulus package update
Credit Growth and Fund Mobilization
=> Government has approved in the monthly cabinet meeting but is waiting for appoval of National Assembly
Higher pressure on CPI
With international food and oil commodity prices rising and domestic demand picking up, the inflation pressure is getting higher.
YoY inflation rate seems modest increase, but QoQ suggests CPI heading in one direction in the next few months.
YoY & QoQ CPI
Trade Balance – Neutral to Negative
Trade deficit has widen to -22.7% of GDP in Oct 2009.
Policy-driven macro rebound is leading to pressure of trade deficit. A V-shape rebound in imports led by stimulus measures. Exports remained weak as global demand struggled.
Trade Balance Trend
YOY % Change of Export & Import
Widening trading band to 5%
Increase 5% official rate
=> Still show signs of weakness of VND and lack of USD with the approach of year end
Interest rate of government bonds is set to rise in 4Q of 2009 due to following reasons：
Heavy issuance (shortage of tax revenue). Sizeable portion of government bonds are due to mature next year
Depreciation of VND and expectation of rising CPI force government to increase benchmark base rate (8% now)
=> Favorable direction for interest re-invest in the future.II. Investment Outlook
Government Bond Maturity Profile
Govt Bonds Yield Trend
～～ The End ～～