CIAS and its Application as ‘CLIMASCOPE’ …. An Adaptation Tool

1. CIAS and its Application as ‘CLIMASCOPE’ …. An Adaptation Tool Community Integrated Assessment System Rachel Warren, Tyndall Centre

2. OUTLINE • What stakeholders need • What is CIAS? • Applications of CIAS 1: Avoided impacts • Applications of CIAS 2: The role of deforestation • Applications of CIAS 3: The Wallace Initiative • Application 4 – CLIMASCOPE – the future

3. PERCEIVED NEEDS OF USERS(MITIGATION) • Stakeholders need to know the potential damages, risks and vulnerabilities in impacts sectors resulting from various future climate policies (e.g. carbon tax regimes) compared with no-climate policy scenarios • They need an assessment of the uncertainties in these projections • The integrated model CIAS can be used to provide such information

4. PERCEIVED NEEDS OF USERS(ADAPTATION) • Stakeholders need to know the potential damages, risks and vulnerabilities in impacts sectors resulting from various future emission scenarios • Hence they need to know the potential future local/regional climate changes and local/regional climate impacts • They need an assessment of the uncertainties in these projections, and assistance with dealing with the issue of alternative future emission scenarios • CIAS can be used to provide such information

5. WHAT IS THE COMMUNITY INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT SYSTEM(CIAS) ? MULTI: -institutional -platform -language Uncertainty Analysis: Parameters Modules Flexibly linked modular system Web portal Involves the stakeholder community…!

6. HOW DOES CIAS WORK? • Set of linked modules that communicate across language/platform barriers • Different sets (configurations) of modules linked for different applications • Modules may stay at institutions or be handled at UEA • Multi-parameter uncertainty analysis: Latin hypercube sampling across pdfs of various statistical forms; alternative GCM patterns, etc

7. EXISTING CIAS WEB PORTAL • User selection of alternative configurations of modules • User selection of module parameters • User control of uncertainty analysis • User access control • Viewing of output • Some scientific foolproofing (e.g. ensuring model cannot run if user tries to use modules inconsistently)

8. BASIC STRUCTURE OF CIAS Drivers Mitigation Emissions Climate Adaptation Impacts Downscaled climate

9. Emissions scenario generator ESM: Emissionsof GHG Wallace Initiative for bioclimatic Modelling (CIAT, WWF US) DIVA (Southampton) 0.5 degree Resolution Maps of Surface Temperature And Rainfall DSM: Down Scaling model CLIMGEN (UEA) SCM: Simple Climate Model MAGICC (UEA) Hydrological Model, MAC Water Stress& Flooding predictors (Reading) ICLIPS Biome Shifts (PIK) Degree Day Model (Reading)

10. CIAS portal: General view Working area: The content of this area depends on the selected task Task selection area

11. CIAS portal: Executing a coupling Write a name and description for the execution Select the module you want to configure Set the parameters of the distribution function. In this example we use the Davies distribution to emulate Andronova’s PDF for climate sensitivity Select the number of samples for the Latin hypercube Start execution Select the type of distribution for the parameter Select the type of configuration for the parameter Select the coupling you want to execute Create an execution context Select the parameter you want to configure

12. CIAS portal: Managing results

13. CIAS Application 1: Avoided Impacts • Analysis of AVOID scenarios (www.uk.avoid.net) • Compares policy scenarios with reference • What climate changes are avoided? • What impacts are avoided? • What carbon tax regimes are required to effect these?

14. Analysis of global emissions trajectories Business-as-usual scenario • Varied: • Peak year for emissions • BAU (pre-peak) emissions • Emission reduction rate post-peak • Emission floor 1 2 3 Policy scenario 4 AVOID is funded by the Department of Energy and Climate Change and the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs

15. DOWNSCALER CLIMGEN (UEA) • Pattern scaling based on interpolation btwn 1961-1990, and 2071-2100 : produces change field • New downscaled climate = change + monthly mean climate + current variability • 19 different AOGCM patterns • 8 climate variables: min, max & mean monthly/seasonal/annual temperature, precipitation, vapour pressure, cloud cover, wet-day frequency, and sea-surface temperature • 0.5 degree resolution

16. CIAS Results d: ClimGen: Local temperature rise relative to 1990(in African National Park at Lat 0, Long 34.5)

17. The earlier the peak in emissions, the greater the avoided impacts AVOID is funded by the Department of Energy and Climate Change and the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs

18. CIAS results g: % biome areas transformed in 2100 (ICLIPS)

19. ANALYSIS OF DROUGHT • Climgen monthly timeseries used to drive drought simulations • SPI index indicates how much modelled rainfall X in month i differs from 1951-2000 mean rainfall in that month, normalised by standard deviation • Set a threshold value of SPI such that 2-6 drought events in e.g. each of 9 UK regions over 1951-2000 –result 2.4  - is the “current”.

20. CIAS results e: # months under drought conditions CURRENT Observed 1951-2000 A1FI HadCM3 2050-2099 550 ppmv, 2050-2099 550 ppmv, 2050-2099 450 ppmv, 2050-2099

21. CIAS Application 2: Role of tropical deforestation rates in climate policy • Consider historical emissions to 2000 • Emis-Gen: CO2 reduction policies begin at TS(start)…over TT(transition) period to reach R/yr, reduce thereafter at R/yr • Other gases scaled with CO2 • Consider Rmax~3%/yr …for fossil fuel emissions and LUC outside the tropics • 80% emission reductions from 2000 to 2050 implies 3.1%/yr • Consider different potential rates of tropical deforestation…zero, business-as-usual, and maximum

22. CIAS Application 2. Halting tropical deforestation essential to achieve 2°C target even with stringent cuts in fossil fuel emissions

23. Wallace Initiative Mapping the Refugia in a Warming World TRAFFIC

24. CIAS Application 3: Wallace Initiative • Links downscaled climate projections from CIAS to MaxENT based bioclimatic modelling • Initial application to identify refugia … • For wild crop types; eco-crops • For terrestrial species • For commercial marine species (fish and invertebrates) – in negotiation • To aid design of future protected area systems

25. Application 4: CLIMASCOPE Web portal at which outputs of CIAS can be accessed simply. Initially we are making available: • Projections of potential future local/regional climate changes • Projections of potential future climate impacts • Across a range of emission scenarios and socioeconomic futures including mitigation scenarios • Providing information on uncertainty in future projections e.g. sensitivity to GCM pattern used in down-scaling

26. CLIMASCOPE DETAIL • 8 climate variables including SST • Annual, seasonal or monthly output • Users can request mean output over a time slice/ask for annual time series • Access to codes not permitted • Traceable account of origin of data • Key references and logos of authors/institutions to be credited • Global commons license • Training, on line workshops

32. CONCLUSION • CIAS is being applied to provide policy relevant information to adaptation and mitigation planners • CIAS will soon provide free regional climate projections for adaptation planners via CLIMASCOPE • Unique in providing free choice of emissions scenarios including mitigation scenarios, uncertainty analysis, and ultimately impact projections • Since CIAS is a system that links modules together flexibly it can continually grow to cover new regions/sectors as stakeholder demand changes