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GO131: International Relations Professor Walter Hatch Colby College Nuclear Deterrence

GO131: International Relations Professor Walter Hatch Colby College Nuclear Deterrence. Why the Dog Didn’t Bite (and the Cold War Stayed Cold). Balance of power? Or “balance of terror?”. A Puzzle for Realists. Classical realism: Superpower Behavior Ideological moderation

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GO131: International Relations Professor Walter Hatch Colby College Nuclear Deterrence

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  1. GO131: International Relations Professor Walter Hatch Colby College Nuclear Deterrence

  2. Why the Dog Didn’t Bite(and the Cold War Stayed Cold) • Balance of power? • Or “balance of terror?”

  3. A Puzzle for Realists • Classical realism: Superpower Behavior • Ideological moderation • Fear of escalation • Neo-realism: Structure of the System • The stability of bipolarity • Communication to overcome PD

  4. Balance of Terror

  5. Deterrence • Defined: The threat to punish another actor if it takes a particular negative action (such as attacking one’s own state or one’s allies) • One conditon: The threat must be credible.

  6. Mutually Assured Destruction(MAD)

  7. Nuclear Technology • Atomic bomb (1945): Fission • Hydrogen bomb (1952): Fusion • Technological “advances”

  8. Delivery Systems (I)

  9. Delivery Systems (II)

  10. Delivery Systems (III)

  11. Scared Straight

  12. U.S.– Soviet Arms Control • Limited Test Ban Treaty (1963) • ABM Treaty (1972) • SALT (1972 and 1979) • START (1991)

  13. Global Arms Control

  14. Proliferation • NPT (1968) • By then, France, UK and China also had joined nuclear club. • In spite of NPT, the technology spread • India and Pakistan never signed. Declared nuclear powers in 1970s. • Israel never signed. It is undeclared nuclear power, but probably has a hundred warheads • Iraq’s nuclear program was dismantled in 1990s.

  15. North Korea • Near war in ’94 over plutonium production • Pulled out of NPT in ‘03 after conflict over uranium enrichment • 6-8 nukes • Planning a test

  16. Iran • Signed NPT • But enriching uranium • For civilian or military purposes? • Israel should be “wiped off the map…”

  17. India’s Special Status • 100 nukes? • US cooperation • Why not Pakistan?

  18. Proliferation for Profit • Pakistan –> Iran, Libya, North Korea • China –> Iran Dr. A. Q. Khan

  19. Testing • CTBT (1996) • Won’t take effect until signed and ratified by 44 states • India and Pakistan refused to sign; conducted their own tests in late 1990s • An attempt to divide world into “nuclear haves” and “nuclear have-nots?” • U.S. Senate voted in 1999 against ratification • Bush administration opposes it

  20. Nuclear Hypocrisy

  21. US Response • We’re taking action … • Real threat: • Rogue states • Non-state actors

  22. Chemical and Biological Weapons

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