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From Internet Data Centers to Data Centers in the Cloud. This case study is a short extract from a keynote address given to the Doctoral Symposium at Middleware 2009 by Lucy Cherkasova of HP Research Labs Palo Alto. The full keynote is on the course materials page

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From Internet Data Centers to Data Centers in the Cloud

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    1. Stochastic Forecasting of Drifting Ships and Smaller Objects Dr Øyvind Breivik Norwegian Meteorological Institute Kjell Røang Christian Michelsen Research

    2. Objective • To generate search areas for the Norwegian Search and Rescue Service based on the best available wind and current information Challenge • Make search areas as small as possible, but not smaller

    3. Other uses • Containers • Mine-like objects • Objects at large (buoys, ROVs)

    4. The Uncertainties Involved • Where and when did the accident take place? • Which object should we look for (life raft, person in water, …)? • What are the wind conditions like in the area? • What are the surface currents in the area?

    5. Search Maths POS = POD x POC • POS: Probability of success (do we find what we are looking for?) • POD: Probability of detection (the keen eyes of the rescuers) • POC: Probability of containment (are we searching in the right place?), our business

    6. Forces on a Drifting Object • Wind (leeway) • Surface current • Wave motion (damping and excitation) The motion of an object of arbitrary shape is difficult to model, approximations are needed

    7. Leeway divergence • Leeway divergence sends objects at an angle relative to downwind • Symmetry allows stable drift left and right of downwind (little jibing is observed). →Diverging search areas with time

    8. Downwind Approximations Wind speed and object drift is approximately linearly related Different objects drift differently ... Undrogued life raft Life raft with drogue

    9. Crosswind

    10. Empirical leeway model

    11. Archive and prognoses 7 day archive combined with 60 h prognoses of • Wind from 20 km res. atmospheric model (HIRLAM 20) • Surface currents from 4 km res. ocean model with tides and wind forcing (POM)

    12. Wind and current close up

    13. AWI 0203

    14. Icelandic exercise 2003

    15. Faroe exercise 2004

    16. Operational use of LeeWay model • Service operational from 2002 • Simulation started by web order form • Result transferred by e-mail • Result presented in JRCC decision support system SARA

    17. System architecture Web order Result Presentation Wind and Current Drift Simulator E-mail Transport GRIB format

    18. Web order, old

    19. Web order, New

    20. Results, sailboat

    21. Results, PIW and Life raft

    22. Other simulators • Oil drift • Ship drift

    23. Web order oil drift simulations

    24. Oil drift

    25. Web order, ship drift simulations

    26. Ship drift, 1 simulation

    27. Ship drift, ensemble model

    28. Other services • Weather forecasts overlay (MetOc) • AIS/VMS • Weather Observations

    29. Weather forecast

    30. AIS Legend Graticule Basestations Ports

    31. Weather Observations

    32. Weather Observations