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JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER 2010 YEAR IN REVIEW

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  1. Super Typhoon Megi 2001010170833 DMSP F-17 Visible JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER 2010 YEAR IN REVIEW Mr. Robert (Bob) Falvey Director, Joint Typhoon Warning Center 65th INTERDEPARTMENTAL HURRICANE CONFERENCE 28 FEB – 3 MAR 2011 MIAMI, FL

  2. MISSION Provide tropical cyclone reconnaissance, analysis, forecast and warning support for Department of Defense, and other US Government assets in the Pacific and Indian Oceans as established by Commander, United States Pacific Command.

  3. 113 343 86 94 41 93 42 2010 SATELLITE RECON (Fixes by Agency) (Total: 10,037)

  4. 2010 SATELLITE RECON (JTWC (PGTW) Fixes ) (Total: 6,334) Total Microwave Fixes: 3,136 (49.5% of total)

  5. ANNUAL TC ACTIVITY (All Basins / All Intensities) Number of Cyclones Year 5

  6. 2010 NORTH INDIAN OCEAN

  7. 2010 SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE

  8. 2010 WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC Tropical Depressions: 5 Tropical Storms: 5 Typhoons: 8 Super Typhoons: 1 (Megi) Lowest number of warned cyclones in JTWC record

  9. 2010 JTWC TRACK ERRORS (All Basins) 200 42 152 296 72 232 263 63 205 228 53 174 100 11 83 62 6 58 148 22 115

  10. JTWC TRACK ERRORS (Western North Pacific - 24-72 Hours) • 24 Hr 48 Hr 72 Hr • 2006 64 106 151 • 61 100 147 • 66 120 198 • 65 122 183 • 60 99 152 • *Goal: 25 50 75

  11. JTWC TRACK ERRORS (WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC – 96-120 Hours) • 96 Hr 120 Hr • 2006 216 309 • 187 214 • 301 447 • 258 298 • 216 261 • *Goal: 100 150

  12. 2010 WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC TRACK ERRORS (Storm by Storm)

  13. CROSS TRACK (direction) ERROR (Western North Pacific)

  14. ALONG TRACK (speed) ERROR (Western North Pacific)

  15. 2010 MODEL TRACK ERRORS (Western North Pacific – Homogeneous)

  16. JTWC INTENSITY ERRORS(Western North Pacific 24 - 120 Hours) • 24 Hr 48 Hr 72 Hr 96Hr 120Hr • 2006 13 18 20 22 24 • 11 18 23 24 26 • 12 19 21 22 28 • 12 19 25 26 27 • 9 12 15 21 24 • *Goal: +/- 20% of actual at all TAUs

  17. 2010 WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC INTENSITY ERRORS (Storm by Storm)

  18. 2010 MODEL INTENSITY ERRORS (Western North Pacific – Homogeneous)

  19. Genesis or Development potential Use of radiance data (Ritchie) Statistical/Dynamic (Murphree) Intensity analysis/forecast/verification (OBT,ADT/SATCON,AMSU) Ensemble TC forecasting Rapid intensification climatology, diagnoses, and prediction TC / TUTT cell interaction Singular vector analysis Application of sensitivity studies (Reynolds, et. Al.) Improvements to data processing, display, analysis and storage Google Earth tool (GEMINI) PZAL (Collab) archive JTWC Automation Management System (JAMS) AWIPS-2 Evaluation COAMPS-TC evaluation GFDN upgrades / coupling AFWA UM TC Tracker Mark IVB X-Band Upgrade Typhoon Conference Tokyo, 5-8 April 2011 Hosted Taiwan CWB and Australia BoM visiting scientists Building closer ties with UH Hiring GS-13 Chief Scientist Increased JHT/HFIP participation Possible JHT funding (~$500K) 2011 PROJECTS/EVENTS

  20. OPERATIONAL ITEMS • ITOP / TCS-10 – TDOs flew missions • Invest/Suspect Areas • Poor/Fair/Good potential for development change to Low/Medium/High probability of development • Clarity for non-weather customers • Implementation 1 Jun 11 • ATCF Funding – Back on Track • Continued focus on along track and intensity

  21. STILL NEED WORK ON TRACK (TC Phet (03A)) JTWC & CONW GFDN ECMWF NOGAPS GFS UKMO (EGGR)

  22. Contact Info • Operations Officer (JTOPS) • LCDR Jeremy Callahan • jeremy.callahan@navy.mil • (808) 471-4597 • Techniques Development • Mr. Matt Kucas • matthew.kucas@navy.mil • (808) 471-4597 • Satellite Operations Flight • Capt Jay Neese • jay.neese@navy.mil • (808) 474-3946 • Commanding Officer, NMFC/JTWC CAPT Mike Angove michael.angove@navy.mil (808) 471-0363 • Director Mr. Robert Falvey robert.falvey@navy.mil (808) 474-5301 • Technical Advisor Mr. Ed Fukada edward.fukada@navy.mil (808) 474-5305

  23. QUESTIONS

  24. BACKUPS

  25. JTWC AOR RSMCMiami 33% 8% 1 7% 7% 11% 13%

  26. TC ACTIVITY Arabian Sea & Bay of Bengal 2006: 5 2007: 6 2008: 7 2009: 5 2010: 5 25 Yr avg: 5 NW Pacific 2006: 26 2007: 27 2008: 27 2009:28 2010: 19 25 Yr avg: 31 C Pacific 2006: 1 2007: 0 2008: 1 2009: 3 2010: 1 25 Yr avg: 2 NE Pacific 2006: 21 2007: 15 2008: 18 2009: 20 2010: 12 25 Yr avg: 18 South Pacific & E. Australia Region 2006: 8 2007: 10 2008: 8 2009: 9 2010: 10 25 Yr avg: 10 S. Indian Ocean & W. Australia Region 2006: 15 2007: 14 2008: 21 2009: 18 2010: 14 25 Yr avg: 18 27

  27. ANNUAL TC ACTIVITY (Western North Pacific Ocean) Number of Cyclones Year 28

  28. ANNUAL TC ACTIVITY (North Indian Ocean) Number of Cyclones Year 29

  29. ANNUAL TC ACTIVITY (Southern Hemisphere) Number of Cyclones Year 30

  30. 2010 SATELLITE RECON Microwave Fixes by JTWC Total Microwave Fixes: 3,136 (49.5% of total)

  31. AVERAGE TRACK ERROR (Western North Pacific)

  32. 2010 MODEL TRACK ERRORS (Western North Pacific – Non-homogeneous) Note: GFDN errors negatively impacted by code porting problem

  33. 2007 MODEL TRACK ERRORS (Western North Pacific – Homogeneous)

  34. 2008 MODEL TRACK ERRORS (Western North Pacific – Homogeneous)

  35. 2009 MODEL TRACK ERRORS (Western North Pacific – Homogeneous)

  36. 2010 MODEL INTENSITY ERRORS (Western North Pacific – Non-homogeneous)

  37. 2007 MODEL INTENSITY ERRORS (Western North Pacific – Homogeneous)

  38. 2008 MODEL INTENSITY ERRORS (Western North Pacific – Homogeneous)

  39. 2009 MODEL INTENSITY ERRORS (Western North Pacific – Homogeneous)