Europe (Regional Association VI)

1. Europe (Regional Association VI) Preliminary results of the WMO national- and regional-level DPM surveys in RA VI Dr Martti Heikinheimo, Chairman of RA VI Working Group on DPM

2. Agenda • Frequency and Impacts of hazards • Regional activities and capacities • Opportunities and recent initiatives • Conclusions

3. Frequency and Impacts of hazards in Europe

4. WORLD MAP OF NATURAL HAZARDS Source: http://www.munichre.de

5. Number of Disasters (1980-2005) Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database - www.em-dat.net - Université Catholique de Louvain - Brussels - Belgiumc 84% of disasters were related to hydro-meteorological factors.

6. Loss of Human Life (1980-2005) Italy 39% France 29% Germany 10% Turkey 80% Italy 20% 70% of loss of life are related to hydro-meteorological factors Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database - www.em-dat.net - Université Catholique de Louvain - Brussels - Belgium

7. Economic Losses (1980-2005) Source: EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database - www.em-dat.net - Université Catholique de Louvain - Brussels - Belgium 74% of economic losses are related to hydro-meteorological factors

8. Responses to the WMO Country-Level DPM Survey in Europe 44 out of 48 Members responded Moscow Exeter Offenbach Rome

9. Ranking from the country-level survey HIGH&WIDE IMPACTS LOW & LOCAL IMPACTS

10. Ranking hazards according to the threat on life and property using a scale from 1 to 5 (RAVI-WG assessment)

11. European Severe Storms virtual Laboratory European Severe weather Database http://essl.org/ESWD/ red: tornado yellow: severe wind gusts,green: large hail blue: heavy rain white: funnel cloud pink:gustnado orange: dust devil Data: 1.1.-17.11.2006 a voluntary based public forum organised by a number individuals from NM(H)Ss and research institutes

12. Source: http://mrnathan.munichre.com/ Natural disaster databases provide detailed information about occurrence and severity of extreme events

13. Number of countries issuing warnings HIGH IMPACT LOW IMPACT Strong winds Heavy snow River flooding Flash flood Heat wave Thunderstorm or lightning Freezing rain Hailstorm Cold wave Dense fog Drought Forest or wild land fire Earthquakes Hazards to aviation Landslide or mudslide Airborne substances Waterborne hazards Avalanche Marine hazards Storm surge Tornado Coastal flooding Smoke, Dust or Haze Sandstorm Volcanic events Desert locust swarm Tropical cyclone Tsunami NMS&NMHS’s take major responsibility of issuing hydrometeorological warnings

14. Strong winds Heavy snow River flooding Flash flood Heat wave Thunderstorm or lightning Freezing rain Hailstorm Cold wave Dense fog Drought Forest or wild land fire Earthquakes Hazards to aviation Landslide or mudslide Airborne substances Waterborne hazards Avalanche Marine hazards Storm surge Tornado Coastal flooding Smoke, Dust or Haze Sandstorm Volcanic events Desert locust swarm Tropical cyclone Tsunami Number of countries keeping data archives HIGH IMPACT LOW IMPACT Very few countries maintain impact databases Need for strengthening National Meteorological and Hydrological Services' capacities for hazard data archiving

15. Contributions of NMHSs to key sectors relevant to Disaster Risk Management Major focus of NMHS’s: transportation, safety of life at Sea, Health

17. Areas in which WMO's global and regional efforts could enhance NMHSs' contribution to disaster risk management

18. Regional-level DPM survey is being implemented by RA Working Group on DPM to address issues related to: i) Providing information on initiatives through various economic groupings and agencies to develop regional strategic plans for implementing the Hyogo Framework for Action (HFA) ii) Strengthening regional capacity’s in disaster risk management iii) Identification and prioritization of hazards that pose the greatest risk resulting in a need for cross boundary / sub-regional / regional collaboration and cooperation iv) Understanding the current capacities and activities in the region in support of disaster risk management, and how these regional capacities and activities support these focus areas, including the projects underway through the working groups of the Regional Association v) Identification of gaps and needs and cross-boundary challenges for enhancing capacities in support of disaster risk management vi) Regional priorities with respect to addressing these gaps and needs vii) Identification of existing and potential future partnerships and concrete project areas of the regional association with other agencies involved in disaster risk reduction. viii) Prioritization of activities / projects in support of Members capacities in disaster risk management in your Regional Association.

19. Regional activities and capacities • RMSCs: Exeter, Rome, Offenbach, Moscow • EUMETSAT • ECMWF • EUMETNET • JRC • Examples of best practices

20. Regional activities and capacities - RSMCs Exeter, Offenbach, Rome, Moscow • long-range or medium-range forecasting products; • advisories for (tropical cyclones), severe storms and other dangerous weather phenomena; • tailored aviation or marine products to service users in a particular area; • trajectories or dispersion of pollutants in case of nuclear of chemical accident; • information on prolonged adverse weather conditions, including drought monitoring; • activities related to the World Climate Programme (WCP) and other WMO or international programmes.

21. Regional activities and capacities - RSMCs • run workshops to enhance products delivered to NMCs in the region (Exeter) • Guidance on storm-position and track forecasts for the areas affected by tropical storms (Offenbach) • Provision of UV-B forecasts (Offenbach) • Agrometeorological, aviation, hydrological forecasts, marine forecasts (Moscow) • Transport model products for environmental emergency (Exeter, Toulouse)

22. ECMWF – The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (1975-) • supported by 26 (+8) European States + a multitude of co-operation agreementswith international organisations Objectives and functions: • the development of numerical methods for medium-range and long range weather forecasting; • distribution of these to the NMSs of the Member States; • scientific and technical research directed at the improvement of these forecasts;

23. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (1975-) • World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) • European Organisation for the Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites (EUMETSAT) • African Centre of Meteorological Applications for Development (ACMAD) • Joint Research Centre (JRC) • Preparatory Commission for the Comprehensive Nuclear Test-Ban Treaty Organisation (CTBTO) • Executive Body of the Convention on Long-Range Transboundary Air Pollution (CLTRAP) • European Space Agency (ESA) Partnerhsips

24. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (1975-) • collection and storage of appropriate meteorological data. • make available a proportion of its computing facilities to its Member States for their research; • assist in implementing the programmes of the WMO; • provide advanced training to the scientific staff of the Member States in the field of numerical weather prediction; • make the data in its extensive archives available to outside bodies.

25. ECMWF – The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (1975-) Extreme Forecast Index

26. EUMETSAT - Strategic priorities • Ensure continuity of the operational meteorological and climate observing facilities with adequate satellite and ground infrastructure, and user services; • Ensure that the European contribution to global operational satellite systems is optimised so that the global system meets the needs of Europe and contributes effectively to the requirements of WMO. • Contribute to the alleviation of the impact of weather related natural disasters; • Provide additional services in meteorology, climate and environment for Europe; • Contribute to capacity building by providing and funding courses

27. JRC Joint Research Centre; Institute for the Protection and the Security of Citizen • Help safeguard EU citizens against damage caused by natural disasters • Provide research-based, systems-oriented support to EU policies to protect citizens against economic and technological risk. • Maintain and develop its expertise in information, communication, space and engineering technologies • Example of added benefits • European flood warning system • System for forest fire risk assessment

28. EUMETNET A joint effort 20 European countries Help members them in providing • leading expertise on weather, climate, environment and related activities • technical support to the corresponding scientific community, • high quality basic data and products. Cooperative activities: • observing systems, data bases, data processing and communications systems, basic forecasting products, research and development, training, coordination of technical assistance to NMSs of non members, Establish Programmes making use of the expertise and facilities of its Members through an appropriate sharing of tasks and resources Co-ordinate activities with European organisations such as ECMWF and EUMETSAT

30. Opportunities and recent initiatives • GMES – Global Monitoring of Environment and Security • EU-Flood Initiative • (EuroGOOS) • (IPY) • (IOC) • Best practices: • an example of a personalised warning service

31. GMES • The ‘Global Monitoring for Environment and Security’ (GMES) represents a concerted effort to bring data and information providers together with users, so they can better understand each other and make environmental and security-related information available to the people who need it through enhanced or new services.

35. EU Flood Initiative • Between 1998 and 2004, Europe suffered over 100 major damaging floods, including the catastrophic floods along the Danube and Elbe rivers in summer 2002. Severe floods in 2005 further reinforced the need for concerted action. Since 1998 floods in Europe have caused some 700 deaths, the displacement of about half a million people and at least €25 billion in insured economic losses.

36. EU Flood Initiative • STRATEGIES -On 18/01/2006 the European Commission proposed a directive on the assessment and management of floods. Its aim is to reduce and manage the risks that floods pose to human health, the environment, infrastructure and property. Under the proposed directive member states would first need to carry out a preliminary assessment to identify the river basins and associated coastal areas at risk of flooding. For such zones they would then need to draw up flood risk maps and then flood risk management plans focused on prevention, protection and preparedness.

37. EU Flood Initiative GMES- EFAS European Flood Alert System • Overview of current flood situation in Europe for European Commission services • Comparable results across Europe • Fostering harmonised exchange of hydrological data and information in Europe • Provide NMHSs additional information on possible flood situations more than 3 days in advance based on different weather forecasts • Interpretation of flood ensemble prediction system forecasts based on full sets of EPS • Status: development and testing phase at the JRC

38. Reaching the individual users: Driver Alert (Varo) • Road weather & Traffic info • Route planning system • Mobile warnings

39. Conclusions - Capacities • Major centres: ECMWF, EUMETSAT, ESA, JRC, RSMCs and joint efforts such as EUMETNET provide a back bone for region wide development of operative systems • Initiatives such as GMES –GeoRisk/PREVIEW provide a holistic approach for bringing together information providers and end users from strategic planning and implementation of new region wide decision support systems

40. Conclusions - gaps • Geographical variation in national capacities (mainly ‘W-E’ in RAVI ) • Understanding at the ministerial level of the socio-economic benefits and capacities of NMHS in DPM • Need for new value-added services: e.g. quick response now-casting services • Better Coordination with neighbouring countries • Educational modules for NMSs for outreach to the users • Need for better co-ordination and standardisation of impact databases – at national and international level

41. Conclusions - gaps Need to strengthen processes and links Government service providers Other agencies Other agencies Media - Citizens - Rescue units