1 / 44

The costs of school failure Industrial countries

The costs of school failure Industrial countries. George Psacharopoulos. Education startups. World Bank European Union 1962 timidly 1990 aggressively 1998 timidly 2006 aggressively. European Investment Bank.

kyrene
Download Presentation

The costs of school failure Industrial countries

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript


  1. The costs of school failureIndustrial countries George Psacharopoulos

  2. Education startups • World BankEuropean Union • 1962 timidly • 1990 aggressively • 1998 timidly • 2006 aggressively

  3. European Investment Bank • More education projects since 2000 • Education and health in the Industry Department • Understaffed

  4. European Commission • Regulates the size of and weight of (nearly) everything • ….but…. • No say on country education policies

  5. Commission statements • 2000 • “By 2010 the European Union should become the most competitive and dynamic knowledge-based economy in the world, capable of sustainable economic growth, with more and better jobs, accompanied by greater social cohesion”. • 2006 • “Education and training are critical factors to develop the EU’s long-term potential for competitiveness as well as for social cohesion”. • “Investments in education and training produce high returns which substantially outweigh the costs…. [Such investments]… should be targeted on areas where economic returns and social outcomes are high”.

  6. Failing education • - “Europe is failing its students” (The Economist) • - “Antiquated education systems are failing a new generation” • (Newsweek) • - “Germany’s school system fails …..”(The Economist) • - “Policy to blame for failure of schools….” (The Independent)

  7. Alternative failure labels • USA:Inadequate education • UK:Did not obtain vocational qualifications • Spain:“Fracaso escolar”, no school leaving • certificate at age 16

  8. EU education failure definition • “The number of 18 to 24 year olds • with only lower-secondary level education • who are not in further education and training”.

  9. EU education benchmark • “The proportion of early school leavers • should be not be more than 10% • by 2010”

  10. Taxonomy of school failure definitions

  11. EU “school failure” average • 2006: 15% actual • 2010 : 10% EU target

  12. Early school leavers by 2010 benchmark state (%)

  13. Extent of the problem

  14. Critique • Quality of education ignored • Equity ignored • General equilibrium largely ignored • Non-linearities ignored • Behavioural elasticities ignored

  15. Terms of reference • Literature review • Methodology outline • Critique • Feasibility of an EU study

  16. Cost components • Private: Labor market related • Fiscal: Taxes and welfare payments • Wider social: Health, crime, civic • Intergenerational: Backward and forward • Equity: Outcomes distribution by SES

  17. Direct and indirect paths of the effect of education

  18. Private elements of school failure • Higher unemployment duration • Lower initial and lifetime earnings • Lower own health status • Higher own discount rate • Less risk aversion • Less lifelong learning participation • Lower quality children • Higher unemployment incidence • Lower lifetime satisfaction

  19. Social elements of school failure • Lower positive spill over effects on co-workers • Lower rate of economic growth • Lower intergenerational effects on children and parents • Lower public health status • Higher unemployment • Lower social cohesion • Increased criminality

  20. Fiscal elements of school failure • Lower tax revenues • Higher unemployment and welfare payments • Higher public health expenditures • Higher police expenditure • Higher criminal justice expenditure

  21. Evidence Partial effects: • Correlational: Plenty • Causal: Scarce Full cost-benefit: • Two US studies • One Australian study

  22. Raw education “effects” – EU averages

  23. Marginal effects of one extra year of schooling (%)

  24. Health status by level of education, Netherlands (%)

  25. The monetary benefits of one half of the reference group gaining academic level 1 qualifications

  26. Marginal effect of one year of education on health

  27. Marginal effects of a one year increase in schooling (%)

  28. Predicted probabilities of health and happiness by level of education, Netherlands (%)

  29. Average incarceration rates by level of education, USA (%)

  30. Social benefits of crime reduction by increasing high school completion rate by one percent

  31. Marginal labor market effects of one extra year of schooling (%)

  32. Benefits of equal graduation for blacks and whites

  33. Costs and benefits of closing the high school gap between non-Hispanic whites and minorities ($b)

  34. US study highlights • $192 billion extra income and tax • $58 billion health cost savings • $1.4 billion/year in reduced crime costs • 9.2 years longer life expectancy • Benefit-cost ratio: About 3

  35. Aggregate benefits per high school graduate • Present value of higher income, better health, lower criminality and lower welfare support at age 20: • For average school graduate $209,100 • For black males $268,500

  36. An EU study feasible? • It is feasible, although it would be: • Time consuming Can Europe wait? • Expensive Who can afford it?!

  37. Issues • Just adopt US findings? • What if EU differs from the US? • Scope of existing data? • Raising new data? • Identify country-specific reasons for early leaving/low learning?

  38. Heckman’s grandsummary Preschool School Returns 10% Job training Age 25 6

  39. Education centralization and PISA score

  40. European university problems • Heidelberg and Sorbonne?? • Museum pieces

  41. Private share of tertiary education financing 100% United States Australia, Japan United Kingdom, Spain . Most of continental Europe 0%

  42. Outlook • Further university development/quality divide: • - Anglo-Saxon pluralistic finance style • - Old European state finance style

  43. A major contradiction • Lisbon’s competitivenessand • State education monopoly • No common education policy (Treaty of Rome) • Need ECOFIN equivalent in education? • 2010 targets already missed. • Lisbon, Bologna “nice”, but….. • Lifelong financing?

  44. EU university circa 2010Italian University circa 1350

More Related