Update on modeling cumulative impacts on the Porcupine Caribou Herd

1. Update on modeling cumulative impacts on the Porcupine Caribou Herd Don Russell – December 19, 2013

2. Overall objective of the project • Establish cumulative effects monitoring approach • Identify thresholds of disturbance for Porcupine herd • Combine historic monitoring and industry • Determine impact of human and natural factors on Porcupine population and/or habitat

3. Our approach • Bathurst caribou live in a complex ecosystem • We model caribou at the individual (fat and protein cycle) and population (growth and decline) scale • Our main question “How have caribou evolved to exploit their environment and how does change impact that system?”

4. ENERGY-PROTEIN MODEL WARM/COOL JUNE EARLY/LATE SNOWMELT EARLY/LATE SNOWMELT FEW/MANY FREEZE-THAW WARM/COOL TEMPERATURES HIGH/LOW BIOMASS HIGH/LOW NITROGEN LOW/HIGH insects CALVING FOOD INTAKE ENERGY/PROTEIN COST COW GROWTH WEANING STRATEGY BIRTH WEIGHT CALF GROWTH EAGLE PLAINS OIL ACTIVITY 1002 development zone FOOD INTAKE ENERGY/PROTEIN COST COW GROWTH WEANING STRATEGY BIRTH WEIGHT CALF GROWTH PREGNANCY RATE BIRTH RATE CALF SURVIVAL COW SURVIVAL W I N T E R LATE/EARLY SNOWFALL GOOD/BAD MUSHROOMS NEAR DEMPSTER HIGHWAY NEAR MINE SITE SHALLOW/DEEP SNOW NO/SOME RAIN-ON-SNOW NO/SOME FREEZING RAIN LOW/HIGH SNOW

5. WEANING STRATEGY Normal P P Extended P Summer Fall B Post-natal P + BODY WEIGHT + - X X EARLY FALL RUT LATE SPRING EARLY SUMMER CALVING

6. Modeling approach 1 –How does caribou condition change naturally? Compare: • Changes in winter snow depth • Summer insects • Average baseline • 10 and 20 % less • To: • Cow fall body weight • Calf fall body weight

7. …some results

8. Modeling approach 2 –What is the added development impacts ? • Caribou exposed to 20 days in a development zone in February and 20 days in July • When in zone: • they walk 3% more and run 3% more • Feed 6% less • When feeding they spend 5% less time actually ingesting food (they are nervous) • To: • Cow fall body weight • Calf fall body weight • Change in the # of “normal weaners”

9. ..what is impact of development on cows

10. Impact of development on calves

11. How does the % of NORMALweaners change from baseline conditions when exposed to CC and development?

12. POPULATION MODEL PREGNANCY RATE BIRTH RATE CALF SURVIVAL COW SURVIVAL SEX RATIO PREDATION HARVEST HERD GROWTH OR DECLINE

13. APPLYING OUR WORK TO PORCUPINE CARIBOU • Project impacts of potential development scenarios • Assess effectiveness of project mitigation options • Cooperate in developing development thresholds • Provide input into Harvest Management Planning • Assist in developing a monitoring program

14. …a word about monitoring

15. How to go forward with PCMB • Need to get beyond Don making periodic updates • A major value of the approach is a discussion tool • We need to “workshop” the project: • Held periodically with small discrete topics • Devise and assess implications of some real or hypothetical development scenarios • Work with PCTC on how to project could impact monitoring • Discuss use of model in Harvest Management gatherings • Development thresholds can be practical, biological, societal: need to discuss how to utilize modeling approach