John Panzer World Bank February 2007

1. Global Economic Prospects, 2007 Managing the Next Wave of Globalization in North Africa John Panzer World Bank February 2007

2. Medium-term outlook • Growth in developing countries will remain strong, boosted by improved policies and favorable financial conditions • Growing role of developing countries in the next 25 years • Significant opportunities –yet countries and firms will have to work hard to seize them

3. Developing countries share in global economy will rise as global integration intensifies GDP of high-income and developing countries US$2001 trn $72 trn High-income countries Developing countries 31% 23% 16% Source: World Bank simulations with Linkage model.

4. But at the global level, not everyone may take full advantage Per capita incomes as percent of high-income countries Note: Ratio of PPP-adjusted per capita incomes relative to high-income average. PPP is fixed at base year (2001) level. Source: World Bank simulations with Linkage model.

5. Realizing the potential of global integration requires an affirmative policy response – domestically and globally • Domestic policies crucial to attract knowledge, technology and investment to accelerate growth • Savings (opportunities from population transition) • Mobility of resources – capital and people (protect workers-not jobs) • Leverage the demand and resources of the global economy • Multilateral collaboration • Remove barriers: Doha Development Agenda • Open Regionalism • Use development aid to support integration

6. To take full advantage of global growth, North Africa must integrate further in the global economy in goods trade Exports of goods (excluding oil) as share of world trade, country averages 16 High Performers North Africa - 6 Source: Staff calculations, based on data from IMF World Economic Outlook

7. High performers also expanded market share in services…but North Africa has not Exports of services as share of world trade, country averages 16 High Performers North Africa - 6

8. High growth countries use global production chains to drive exports…North Africa improving but lags Share of parts and components in total exports of goods and services 16 High Performers North Africa - 6 Source: Staff calculations, based on data from IMF World Economic Outlook and United Nations COMTRADE

9. High growth countries have been successful in attracting FDI, but North Africa’s share is declining Annual FDI inflows as percent of all FDI flows to low and middle income countries, country averages 16 High Performers North Africa - 6 Source: Staff calculations based on UNCTAD World Investment Report

10. How can North Africa capitalize on these opportunities?Tariff reforms must go further *) Due to data limitations, Maghreb countries only comprise Algeria, Egypt, Morocco and Tunisia. In the case of Algeria and Morocco, 1997 tariff data had to be used instead of 1995. The group of high performers was restricted to the 12 countries for which tariff data was available. Source: UNCTAD, TRAINS

11. Services liberalization is needed to promote trade and investment flows, cut costs and drive key productivity gains. • Maghreb lags behind comparator countries in contestability of key service sectors • Liberalization of backbone services is essential to improve competitiveness (telecom, financial, transport, energy) • Regulatory reform also needed to improve regulatory framework and service efficiency Source: World Bank

12. Reducing Logistics costs is essential for making North Africa more competitive Source: World Bank

13. The Way Forward – Policies to Support Export Growth and Competitiveness • Reduce tariffs and non-tariff barriers • Integration and harmonization with EU and neighbors through open regionalism • Reduce cost of backbone services through liberalization and competition • To extent possible focus on protecting workers but not jobs