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Global Economic Prospects, 2007 Managing the Next Wave of Globalization in North Africa. John Panzer World Bank February 2007. Medium-term outlook. Growth in developing countries will remain strong, boosted by improved policies and favorable financial conditions

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slide1

Global Economic Prospects, 2007

Managing the Next Wave of Globalization in North Africa

John Panzer

World Bank

February 2007

medium term outlook
Medium-term outlook
  • Growth in developing countries will remain strong, boosted by improved policies and favorable financial conditions
  • Growing role of developing countries in the next 25 years
  • Significant opportunities –yet countries and firms will have to work hard to seize them
developing countries share in global economy will rise as global integration intensifies
Developing countries share in global economy will rise as global integration intensifies

GDP of high-income and developing countries

US$2001 trn

$72 trn

High-income countries

Developing countries

31%

23%

16%

Source: World Bank simulations with Linkage model.

but at the global level not everyone may take full advantage
But at the global level, not everyone may take full advantage

Per capita incomes as percent of high-income countries

Note: Ratio of PPP-adjusted per capita incomes relative to high-income average. PPP is fixed at base year (2001) level.

Source: World Bank simulations with Linkage model.

slide5
Realizing the potential of global integration requires an affirmative policy response – domestically and globally
  • Domestic policies crucial to attract knowledge, technology and investment to accelerate growth
    • Savings (opportunities from population transition)
    • Mobility of resources – capital and people (protect workers-not jobs)
    • Leverage the demand and resources of the global economy
  • Multilateral collaboration
    • Remove barriers: Doha Development Agenda
    • Open Regionalism
    • Use development aid to support integration
slide6

To take full advantage of global growth, North Africa must integrate further in the global economy in goods trade

Exports of goods (excluding oil) as share of world trade, country averages

16 High Performers

North Africa - 6

Source: Staff calculations, based on data from IMF World Economic Outlook

high performers also expanded market share in services but north africa has not
High performers also expanded market share in services…but North Africa has not

Exports of services as share of world trade, country averages

16 High Performers

North Africa - 6

high growth countries use global production chains to drive exports north africa improving but lags
High growth countries use global production chains to drive exports…North Africa improving but lags

Share of parts and components in total exports of goods and services

16 High Performers

North Africa - 6

Source: Staff calculations, based on data from IMF World Economic Outlook and United Nations COMTRADE

high growth countries have been successful in attracting fdi but north africa s share is declining
High growth countries have been successful in attracting FDI, but North Africa’s share is declining

Annual FDI inflows as percent of all FDI flows to low and middle income countries, country averages

16 High Performers

North Africa - 6

Source: Staff calculations based on UNCTAD World Investment Report

how can north africa capitalize on these opportunities tariff reforms must go further
How can North Africa capitalize on these opportunities?Tariff reforms must go further

*) Due to data limitations, Maghreb countries only comprise Algeria, Egypt, Morocco and Tunisia. In the case of Algeria and Morocco, 1997 tariff data had to be used instead of 1995. The group of high performers was restricted to the 12 countries for which tariff data was available.

Source: UNCTAD, TRAINS

slide11
Services liberalization is needed to promote trade and investment flows, cut costs and drive key productivity gains.
  • Maghreb lags behind comparator countries in contestability of key service sectors
  • Liberalization of backbone services is essential to improve competitiveness (telecom, financial, transport, energy)
  • Regulatory reform also needed to improve regulatory framework and service efficiency

Source: World Bank

reducing logistics costs is essential for making north africa more competitive
Reducing Logistics costs is essential for making North Africa more competitive

Source: World Bank

slide13

The Way Forward – Policies to Support Export Growth and Competitiveness

  • Reduce tariffs and non-tariff barriers
  • Integration and harmonization with EU and neighbors through open regionalism
  • Reduce cost of backbone services through liberalization and competition
  • To extent possible focus on protecting workers but not jobs