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Revised Rhode Island GHG Emissions Scenarios 2007 Update

This update presents revised greenhouse gas emission scenarios for Rhode Island in 2007, including baseline revisions and new methodologies. The report compares different scenarios and targets, highlighting savings and cumulative emissions data. Additional policies such as RGGI and Least Cost Procurement are discussed, along with cost curves and sensitivity analysis.

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Revised Rhode Island GHG Emissions Scenarios 2007 Update

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  1. Rhode Island GHG Scenarios2007 Update Charlie Heaps Stockholm Environment Institute - U.S. Center 11 Curtis Avenue Somerville, MA 02144 Web: www.sei-us.org Email: charlie.heaps@sei-us.org

  2. Revised RI GHG Emissions Scenarios for 2007 • Baseline revised for first time in 5 years (shown last time) using a new and simpler methodology. Recap… • Eliminates end-use detail. • Now based primarily on EIA State energy data reports for consumption data (sector by fuel detail only) • Uses EIA’s Annual Energy Outlook results for New England to project consumption growth and future electric sector mix. • No changes made to non-energy sector baseline. • No changes made to emissions factors. • Measures have been updated.. • Added consideration of RGGI in Implemented Scenario. • Added consideration of Least Cost Procurement (75% of SBC @ same unit costs and savings) • Revised B&F measures analysis: SBC measures grouped together and shifted to using utilities’ cost estimates for these options, instead of in-house estimates. • Updated prices using EIA historical state data and fuel price projections from AEO2006 and RGGI, and revised costs for Natural Gas and Wind operation. • No major updates to emission factors. • New analysis is simpler and easier to update in the future.

  3. Reminder: Change in Units • In the past we have shown GHG emissions results as the Global Warming Potential of all greenhouse gases in Metric Tonnes Carbon equivalent. • We now use U.S. Short Tons. (1 Metric Tonne = 1.102 Short Tons) • To convert results into CO2 equivalent from Carbon equivalent multiply by 44/12 = 3.67.

  4. Revised Baseline & Target

  5. RI GHG Baseline by Sector Million Short Tons C eq.

  6. Four Scenarios’ GHGs Compared to Target Million Short Tons C eq. 2020 Savings vs. Baseline: I+F+UD = 1.41 I+F = 0.78 I = 0.64 NEG/CP = 1.26 Targets are: 1990 levels by 2010 10% below 1990 by 2020

  7. Four Scenarios’ GHGs Compared to Target in 2010 and 2020

  8. Four Scenarios Compared to TargetCumulative GHG Emissions 2000-2020 Million Short Tons C eq.

  9. RI GHG Savings By Option in 2020 vs. Baseline Million Short Tons C eq.

  10. Buildings & Facilities GHG Savings in 2020Summarized by Option for 3 Scenarios Million Short Tons C eq. LCP assumed to equal 75% of SBC

  11. Transport GHG Savings in 2020Summarized by Option for 3 Scenarios Million Short Tons C eq.

  12. Energy Supply GHG Savings in 2020Summarized by Option for 3 Scenarios Million Short Tons C eq.

  13. Other (Non-Energy) GHG Savings in 2020Summarized by Option for 3 Scenarios: No change in modeling Million Short Tons C eq.

  14. Comparison of GHG Reductions2007 versus 2006 estimates relative to each year’s baseline Main Additional Policies: ▪ RGGI ▪ Least Cost Procurement Million Short Tons C eq.

  15. Cumulative Net Savings of Three Scenarios Million Cumulative Discounted Dollars v.s Baseline Notes: Results highly sensitive to fuel prices and other assumptions. AEO2007 fuel price projections rather conservative (low) – higher prices = higher savings. Does not include externality costs (would also increase savings)

  16. Cumulative Costs & Savings for 2020 Million Cumulative Discounted Dollars vs. Baseline

  17. Cost Curve: Major Options Sorted by Cost of Saved Carbon Notes: Values below X axis show net benefits. GHG savings and costs are cumulative from 2000-2020. Costs are discounted.

  18. Sensitivity: AEO2007 Prices +50% in 2020Net Savings of 3 Scenarios Million Cumulative Discounted Dollars v.s Baseline Notes: Sensitivity assumes 50% higher prices for Natural Gas and Gasoline in 2020. Benefits increase by $400m for I+F scenario and by ~$700m for I+F+UD scenario.

  19. Carbon Monoxide Emissions by Scenario Thousand Short Tons Notes: I and I+F have almost the same values so only one is visible. CO emissions are dominated (96%) by transport. Transport policies are the same between I and I+F.

  20. PM10 Emissions by Scenario Short Tons

  21. NOx Emissions by Scenario Thousand Short Tons

  22. VOC Emissions by Scenario Thousand Short Tons

  23. SO2 Emissions by Scenario Thousand Short Tons

  24. Summary of Local Air Pollutant Emissions

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